2021 NFL MVP Betting Breakdown

Patrick Mahomes is the early favorite to win the 2021 NFL MVP award, though there are several contenders as we begin the season.

September 1, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

The 2021 NFL MVP race features no shortage of intriguing candidates.

Aaron Rodgers turned back the clock last season to win his third career MVP award, but he’ll face plenty of challengers to his throne this year. Patrick Mahomes is the odds-on MVP favorite heading into the season at +500, while Rodgers (+1000), Tom Brady (+1200) and Josh Allen (+1200) aren’t far behind.

Here are the consensus median MVP odds in 2021:

Player	Team	Payout Odds	Break-even percentage
Patrick Mahomes	Kansas City	+500	16.7%
Aaron Rodgers	Green Bay	+1000	9.1%
Tom Brady	Tampa Bay	+1200	7.7%
Josh Allen	Buffalo	+1200	7.7%
Lamar Jackson	Baltimore	+1600	5.9%
Dak Prescott	Dallas	+1600	5.9%
Matthew Stafford	LA Rams	+1800	5.3%
Russell Wilson	Seattle	+2000	4.8%
Kyler Murray	Arizona	+2000	4.8%
Justin Herbert	LA Chargers	+2000	4.8%
Ryan Tannehill	Tennessee	+2800	3.4%
Baker Mayfield	Cleveland	+3500	2.8%
Carson Wentz	Indianapolis	+4000	2.4%
Matt Ryan	Atlanta	+4000	2.4%
Deshaun Watson	Houston	+5000	2.0%
Derrick Henry	Tennessee	+5000	2.0%
Christian McCaffrey	Carolina	+5000	2.0%
Kirk Cousins	Minnesota	+5000	2.0%
Jameis Winston	New Orleans	+5000	2.0%
Joe Burrow	Cincinnati	+5000	2.0%
Tua Tagovailoa	Miami	+6000	1.6%
Jalen Hurts	Philadelphia	+6000	1.6%
Derek Carr	Las Vegas	+6000	1.6%
Cam Newton	New England	+6500	1.5%
Dalvin Cook	Minnesota	+6600	1.5%
Trevor Lawrence	Jacksonville	+8000	1.2%

You should shop around different sportsbooks because you can find plenty of variation, especially on the longer-shot options. For example, Kirk Cousins has odds ranging from +2500 to +6500 depending on which book you check.

What Makes an MVP?

Thirteen of the past 14 NFL MVP awards have gone to quarterbacks. MVPs almost universally come from teams that win a lot of games, win their division, and are a top seed in the playoffs.

Team Success for MVP Winners

• Every MVP winner has been on a team that was among the top five in wins that season.
• In every season with 16 games played, the MVP winner has been on a team that won 11 or more games. Only five MVPs have been on teams that won fewer than 12 games.
• The most recent winners from teams with fewer than 12 wins are Matt Ryan in 2016 and Rich Gannon in 2002.
• The last MVP on a team that didn’t finish in the top two in its conference was Peyton Manning in 2008. The Colts went 12-4, but they were the wild card behind Tennessee at 13-3 in the AFC South.
• NFL MVPs have played on teams that averaged 13.0 wins in the season that they won the award.

In the preseason, we don’t know how many wins each team will have. However, we do have projections from the betting market to provide estimates.

Of the MVP winners since 2009, only one QB was on a team with a preseason win total below 8.5 (Ryan).

Individual Numbers for MVPs

Most MVP winners were pretty good the year before they won the award. Recent seasons have featured some big surprises, as Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes both won the award in their first seasons as starters, and Aaron Rodgers turned back the clock a year ago. But the general trend has been that quarterbacks who were already efficient the year before have won the award. Only Cam Newton in 2015 had below-league-average pass efficiency stats the year before he won.

Seven of the last 11 QBs to win the MVP award have been 31 or older, with Mahomes (23), Jackson (22), Newton (26), and Rodgers (28) in 2011 being the youngest.

Last year, we broke down some MVP value metrics identifying stats where the past winners ranked relatively higher. Total touchdowns (rushing and passing), Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, Passer Rating, and Yards per Attempt were relatively more important. Others like Completion Percentage, Interception Rate, and total passing yards were not as important.

Narratives and public reaction tend to drive some MVP values, too. At midseason last year, Russell Wilson was the clear betting market favorite to win MVP. But according to our MVP value metrics, Mahomes and Rodgers had better chances of winning the award based on projected team performance and stat performance.

Recent NFL MVP Winners and Preseason Odds

According to SportsOddsHistory.com, the last three MVP winners were all +3000 or more to win the award before the season began.

Even with that recent run of longer shots, the favorites have still been profitable in recent years. Here is a quick breakdown of MVP odds since 2009:

• Tom Brady (+385) in 2017 had the lowest payout odds among eventual MVPs.
• Matt Ryan (+7500) in 2016 had the highest payout odds among eventual winners.
• The player with the lowest odds won MVP three times. With the payout odds, you would have returned an average of +$49 on every $100 wagered on the preseason favorite.
• Five of the last 12 winners had preseason odds of +600 or better. Wagering $100 on all 21 MVP candidates with odds of +600 or better since 2009 would have yielded an average return of +$42.
• Only one of the 95 players with preseason odds between +601 and +2000 have won the award (Tom Brady, +800, 2010).
• Six players out of the 205 with odds of between +2000 and +8000 in the preseason have won the award.

With longer shots winning in recent years, plenty of bettors are attracted to less obvious plays and long-odds picks. But as boring as it seems, Patrick Mahomes is a decent option with odds that put his break-even at 20% right now.

The Chiefs have the highest preseason win total (12.5 wins) of any team. Mahomes is in his prime heading into his age-26 season, and he has averaged 38 touchdown passes and 8.4 yards per attempt since taking over as Kansas City’s full-time starter three years ago.

Odds and Ends on NFL MVP Winners

Of the longer-shot candidates, Ryan Tannehill has some factors that could make him a value. He’s about the median age for recent MVPs (33). He was fourth last year in adjusted net yards per attempt, trailing only Rodgers, Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson, and his team just added an All-Pro-caliber wide receiver in Julio Jones. His efficiency numbers last year are also in line with the average for what MVPs did the year before winning. 

Some other random tidbits when it comes to the MVP award:

• Jim Brown (1957) is the only rookie to win the award. No rookie quarterback has ever won.
• Three second-year quarterbacks have won: Jackson (2019), Mahomes (2018), and Dan Marino (1984). Kurt Warner was also technically in his second NFL season, though he was 28 years old and was an Arena Football League veteran when he was a surprise winner in 1999.
• Matthew Stafford and Carson Wentz will try to become the first players to win MVP in their first season with a new franchise since Earl Morrall (1968).
• There have been only five repeat winners of the MVP since 1957. Aaron Rodgers would be the oldest to repeat if he can do so at age 38.
• Tom Brady is the oldest MVP winner at age 40 in 2017. He will try to best his own mark at age 44 this season.
• Adrian Peterson (2012) was the last non-quarterback to win the MVP. The last player other than a running back or quarterback to win the MVP was New York Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor in 1986.