BetIQ Daily: AFC Playoff Breakdown

Wednesday BetIQ features a breakdown of all seven AFC Playoff teams, from Tennessee to Pittsburgh, and a look at similar team performance.

January 12, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Joe Burrow is ready to lead Cincinnati into the playoffs (Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

This is NFL Playoffs week at BetIQ Daily.

Today is an AFC Playoff Team Breakdown of the seven teams, looking at key factors for each team. Tomorrow, we’ll have the NFC Breakdown, followed by Overall Playoff Predictions on Friday, and Wild Card Game Picks on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

1) Tennessee Titans

• Despite being a No. 1 seed, Titans are only the fifth-largest favorite to win the Super Bowl.
• That skepticism is warranted based on their power rating and similar team analysis (see section at bottom for similar team explanation).
• The Titans were a run-heavy, low-pass-volume team that outgained opponents by only 215 total yards (3rd-worst margin of playoff teams).
• Tennessee had the second-fewest total yards of any playoff team (ahead of only Pittsburgh) and is ahead of only Philadelphia in net passing yards.
• The 12 most similar playoff teams to Tennessee went only 6-6 SU and 4-8 ATS in their first playoff game.
• Most successful playoff teams similar to Titans are 2005 Seahawks, 2012 49ers, and 2015 Panthers, all of whom reached Super Bowl and lost.

2) Kansas City Chiefs

• The Chiefs are the favorite to win the AFC in betting markets, and for good reason.
• Kansas City started the season 3-4 while leading NFL in turnovers before closing by winning nine of last 10.
• Chiefs rank 27th in total yards allowed, worst among playoff teams, but improved after first five games.
• Kansas City is third in yards gained and fourth in points scored in 2021.
• Of nine most similar teams that got a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, eight of them reached at least the conference championship Game.
• Two of three most similar teams (2019 Chiefs and 2018 Patriots) won Super Bowl.

3) Buffalo Bills

• Buffalo had the best point differential in NFL (+194) and fewest points allowed (289) in 2021.
• Bills also ranked 1st in total yards allowed, net yards allowed per pass, and yardage differential.
• Buffalo went 0-5 in games decided by seven points or less this year.
• Interestingly, despite the extreme point differentials and points allowed, similar teams to Buffalo have underperformed in postseason.
• None of Bills’ comps reached Super Bowl, the four most similar (2019 Patriots, 2009 Patriots, 2007 Colts, and 2013 Bengals) all lost at home in first playoff game in  upsets.
• Bills draw New England, and playoff home teams playing a division opponent since 2002 are 10-13 SU and 6-16-1 ATS.

4) Cincinnati Bengals

• Bengals emerged as surprise AFC North winner in QB Joe Burrow’s second year.
• With addition of WR Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow led NFL in yards per attempt (8.9) and completion percentage (70.2%).
• Bengals finished seventh in points scored but 13th in yards, as they ranked near bottom of league in rushing production.
• Bengals were below-average in yards allowed, though only team they allowed to gain more than 400 yards over final nine games was Kansas City.
• Cincinnati’s most successful comp, and only one to reach Super Bowl, was 2012 Ravens that won Super Bowl as No. 4 seed.
• Bengals’ comps did go 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS in first playoff game.

5) Las Vegas Raiders 

• The Raiders overcame head coach Jon Gruden resigning after five games, and won final two must-win games to get into the postseason.
• Raiders went 4-1 SU and ATS in games where they were an underdog of 5+, and 6-6 in all other games.
• Raiders were outscored by 65 points this year, but outgained opponents by 452 yards.
• Las Vegas is eighth in both net yards per pass on offense and defense, but was in bottom six in both rushing yards and yards per carry.
• Raiders had fewest interceptions in NFL and were tied for third-worst in turnovers forced.
• Las Vegas’ similar teams show some upside for playoff runs, as 2011 Giants and 2008 Cardinals that both reached Super Bowl appear.
• What traits do Raiders share with those teams? Pocket passers, good pass efficiency, poor rushing stats, mediocre/bad point differentials but better in yards.
• Raiders’ comps went 8-4 SU and ATS in the Wild Card Round.

6) New England Patriots

• Patriots return to playoffs after one-year hiatus, with rookie QB Mac Jones.
• New England is second in points allowed, behind only Buffalo, and finished fourth in yards allowed.
• New England had 2-4 start, a seven-game winning streak, and then a 1-3 close.
• Patriots’ results were strongly correlated with turnovers, as they are +19 in 10 wins and -12 in seven losses.
• New England finished seventh in net yards per attempt passing, while operating a low-volume pass attack (25th in attempts).
• Patriots’ similar teams performed well in Wild Card Round, though few were threats for deep runs and none reached Super Bowl.
• New England comps went 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS on the road in Wild Card Round, covering spread by 7.6 points on average.
• Most similar team was 2009 Ravens that won handily at NE, when young Joe Flacco had to throw only 10 times and defense forced four turnovers.

7) Pittsburgh Steelers

• Steelers are worst playoff team by points scored, total yards on offense, rushing yards on offense, and yards per carry on defense.
• Pittsburgh was a high-volume, low-efficiency pass offense in Ben Roethlisberger’s final year, finishing fourth in attempts but fourth-worst in pass efficiency (by net yards per attempts).
• Pittsburgh is dead last in NFL at 5.0 yards per carry allowed.
• One bright spot is Defensive Player of Year Candidate T.J. Watt, who had 22.5 sacks in 15 games.
• Steelers went 8-2-1 in one-score games and only won one game by more than eight points.
• There are no surprises in the Pittsburgh’s playoff comps. Overall, they went 3-9 in Wild Card Round (6-6 ATS) and 0-3 after that.
• The two most similar (Chicago as No. 7 seed last year against Saints, and Dolphins in 2016) lost by double digits as 11-point underdogs in Wild Card Round.

Similar Playoff Team Explanation

• In each team discussion, we mention how similar teams performed.
• Similar teams are based on a look at all playoff teams since 2003 (218 total) and finding the 12 most similar, based on statistical factors that include…
  • Playoff seed and win-loss record
  • Points for, against, and point difference
  • Passing yards, rushing yards, and total yards on offense
  • Total yards on defense
  • Pass-to-run ratio of plays on offense
  • Preseason win total expectation (over/under)

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

• NFL point spread picks: 48-36-2 (57%, +7.6 units)
• College football over/under picks: 180-146-3 (55%, +17.7 units)
• NBA spread picks: 14-10 (58%, +2.7 units)
• NBA moneyline picks: 76-67 (+7.3 units)