BetIQ Daily: Alabama vs. LSU and Villanova NCAA Basketball Picks, Plus Pac-12 Futures Pick
Wednesday picks for BetIQ include Alabama-LSU in a big conference game, Villanova vs. Marquette, and a Pac-12 futures bet.
January 19, 2022 - by Jason Lisk
Jahvon Quinerly and Alabama face LSU in a big SEC game (Chris McDill/Icon Sportswire)
BetIQ Daily is a great way to start your day, right after your Wordle. May you hit the under on words used.
Let’s get to some college basketball picks for Wednesday.
1) Alabama -4
- NCAAB Spread Pick
- vs. LSU, Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2
- One of two playable spread picks in college basketball tonight, according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
- Game between two teams in the top 15 of our predictive ratings, and the marquee matchup of the night.
- LSU PG Xavier Pinson has missed the last two games with a knee injury and is a game-time decision for tonight.
- Two of LSU’s worst opponent-adjusted games have come when starters were out: at Auburn, and the home loss to Arkansas on Saturday without Pinson.
2) Villanova/Marquette Over 140 Points
- NCAAB Over/Under Pick
- Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network
- One of 16 playable Over/Under picks in college basketball tonight.
- A game of style/tempo contrasts on offense, as Marquette is top 10 in shortest offensive possessions and Villanova is near the bottom of Division I with a deliberate offense.
- Marquette’s weakness is on the boards, an area where Villanova can excel.
- Marquette opponents this year have shot only 65 percent on free throws, but Villanova is one of best-shooting teams in country at line.
3) Arizona +110 to Win Pac-12 Conference
- NCAAB Futures Pick
- This futures line is available at BetMGM, and a similar line (+105) is available at DraftKings.
- You would win this wager if Arizona finishes as the No. 1 seed entering the Pac-12 tournament at end of regular season.
- Our college basketball projections have Arizona with an 86 percent chance of winning Pac-12 regular season, as the No. 2 team in our power ratings.
- Arizona (4-0) currently has a one-game lead on UCLA and is at least two losses up on everyone else.
- Arizona and UCLA’s schedules are similar for rest of year, and Arizona is power-rated higher.
- Both UCLA and Arizona next play road games Thursday night, and odds could shift based on results.
More College Basketball Futures to Come
We went ahead and put an Arizona pick in today. Some other conference odds have been pulled or will shift based on the games yesterday and today. But we plan on doing several futures options in college basketball (conference winners, Final Four odds, championship) tomorrow.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 48-36-2 (57%, +7.6 units)
- College football over/under picks: 180-146-3 (55%, +17.7 units)
- NBA spread picks: 14-10 (58%, +2.7 units)
- NBA moneyline picks: 81-74 (+6.3 units)