BetIQ Daily: Arizona vs. UCLA, Lakers vs. Nets, and Big Ten Futures Picks
Tuesday picks for BetIQ include the big Arizona-UCLA showdown, Lakers vs. Nets, and a look at value on Purdue in the Big Ten.
January 25, 2022 - by Jason Lisk
UCLA will try to win at home against Arizona in a big Pac-12 matchup (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
BetIQ Daily is putting on the coffee and catching a nap, because there’s a big college basketball game on the West Coast late tonight. Today’s BetIQ Daily has a heavy dose of L.A., so let’s get to it.
1) UCLA +2.5
- NCAAB Spread Pick
- Tuesday vs. Arizona, 11:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Our highest-rated spread pick in college basketball on Tuesday, right on the edge of playable according to our models (52.4 percent).
- Biggest matchup in college basketball this week, between top two programs in Pac-12 and two teams that look like top three seeds in NCAA tournament.
- Last week, we highlighted Arizona as a value play to win Pac-12 conference, and it still looks like a value as our No. 2 overall team, but UCLA as a home underdog here is the lean.
- Home underdogs like UCLA in this matchup have covered 62.5 percent of time, according to our Similar Games model.
- Arizona forward Azuolas Tubelis, second-leading scorer on the team, missed Saturday’s win over Cal with an ankle injury and is a game-time decision for this one.
2) LA Lakers -140
- NBA Moneyline Pick
- Tuesday at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT
- This is the first home game for the Nets since Kevin Durant’s knee injury, so a banged-up Nets team will be without both Durant and Kyrie Irving (COVID-19 protocols in Brooklyn).
- Lakers forward Anthony Davis is probable for tonight’s game and is expected to make his first appearance since December 17th.
3) Loyola-Chicago/Southern Illinois Under 127.5 Points
- NCAAB Over/Under Pick
- Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+
- This is our top playable over/under in college basketball on Tuesday, according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
- Both teams are bottom 30 in all of Division I in tempo and average number of possessions per game.
- Over previous three seasons, the seven matchups between Ramblers and Salukis have averaged 120.1 points, with only one going over 127 points.
Purdue as a Big Ten Value Now?
Last week, we highlighted several NCAA basketball futures picks we saw as having some value. That included two conference-winner picks in Villanova to win the Big East and Davidson to win the Atlantic-10.
Since Thursday:
- Villanova has moved from -135 to -175 at DraftKings;
- Davidson has moved from +165 to -115 at DraftKings;
So, let’s add another pick that has emerged as a value: Purdue to win the Big Ten.
The best price we see right now is Purdue +350 to win Big Ten (i.e., finish as No. 1 seed after the regular season) at BetMGM. Here’s why we see value there:
- The current break-even at +350 is a 22.2 percent chance to win the conference.
- Our projections have Purdue at 32.0 percent to win the Big Ten.
- Purdue is 5-3 in conference play and currently tied for fifth in Big Ten standings, reducing its price.
- Boilermakers are still our top-rated Big Ten team in predictive ratings.
- Big Ten is a balanced league, and no team is projected to finish with more than 14.0 wins out of 20 games.
- Current leader, Michigan State at 6-1, has played six games against bottom five teams in conference, and schedule gets much tougher.
- Purdue already has road win at Illinois, the other team we project as most likely to win conference, which could be big tiebreaker factor.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 48-36-2 (57%, +7.6 units)
- College football over/under picks: 180-146-3 (55%, +17.7 units)
- NBA moneyline picks: 88-77 (+10.8 units)