BetIQ Daily: Saturday College Picks, Including Arkansas vs. Kentucky and Rutgers vs. Wisconsin

Saturday picks in BetIQ Daily include four games, starting with Arkansas-Kentucky, and also look at a potential NBA angle using our models.

February 26, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

J.D. Notae and Arkansas face a Kentucky team likely missing two starters (Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire)

BetIQ Daily is ready for the penultimate weekend of regular-season college basketball for major conferences. It’s also the final weekend for several mid-major conferences that will begin conference tournaments next week.

We have lots of plays we like, often with teams that are playing better or worse recently than their overall results suggest.

1) Arkansas -2.5

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • vs. Kentucky, Saturday at 2:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
  • This is a playable pick (53.8 percent), according to the Ensemble Forecast Model.
  • It’s also a strong play based on the Predictive Power Rating Model, which is showing a line greatly off what would be expected on full-year results.
  • Razorbacks have been nearly 10 points better in their last 12 games with current starting lineup compared to rest of season, following a period where they used six different starting lineups in six games in late December/early January.
  • Kentucky has several key injuries, and head coach John Calipari has already made comments suggesting TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler probably will not play today.

2) Samford +8.5

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • at Chattanooga, Saturday at 4:00 p.m. ET
  • This is not a playable pick according to our models, but is a pick based on team trends.
  • These two teams have been going in opposite directions over the last month.
  • Chattanooga is leading the Southern Conference, but has struggled down the stretch as big man Silvio De Sousa missed several games with an abdominal injury (he returned and played 14 minutes Wednesday against ETSU).
  • Meanwhile, Samford is surging, having won nine of last 10 games after a 1-6 conference start.
  • That surge corresponds with the return of Samford’s best post player, Logan Dye, who missed the first 10 games of the year and moved into starting lineup on Jan. 15th.

3) Butler +8.0

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • at Marquette, Saturday at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX
  • This is a model pick (54.6 percent), according to the Ensemble Forecast Model, and also a strong play based on recent team trends.
  • Butler has been about seven points better in 13 games with forward Bo Hodges than the 16 games without him.
  • Hodges had 25 points in his last game against Seton Hall and has averaged over 16 points per game in his last five starts.

4) Rutgers -2.5

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • vs. Wisconsin, Saturday at 6:00 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network
  • This is a model pick (54.2 percent), according to the Ensemble Forecast Model, and also a strong play based on recent team trends.
  • Rutgers has been over 12 points better since returning to conference play in early January compared to games before then.
  • The Scarlet Knights have also been very good at home, going 7-1 ATS in Big Ten home games, covering five of them by 11.5 or more points.

Staff Betting Picks Coming to Subscribers in March

For subscribers only, we will be releasing staff betting picks in March and throughout the NCAA Tournament. Just as with the picks here at BetIQ Daily, these will be a mix of confirming some model picks and making some that don’t appear as playable to our automated models, but individual research shows a potential edge.

We spend a lot of time in March prepping for our 2022 NCAA Bracket Picks and maximizing our subscribers’ chances of winning pools. Those same learnings and research can also be useful for betting picks. The majority of upcoming picks will be available there, but we will still tease some of those picks in BetIQ Daily.

Potential NBA Angle Using Our Models

We haven’t been making many NBA picks here, but for NBA fans who are also subscribers, we’ve noticed a potential angle that you might want to consider with your picks.

When our Predictive Rating Model is significantly off the spread, there’s usually a really good reason for it. That reason can often be player-involvement related, such as key players out with injury or sitting out. It could also be off because the team has made trades that shifted the roster.

  • Over the last three weeks, when our Predictive Rating Model gives a team a 30 percent chance or less of covering, those teams are 9-4 ATS.
  • If it gives a team a 40 percent chance or less of covering, teams are 26-18-1 ATS.
  • In the two days since teams returned from the All-Star Break, teams rated as 40 percent or less to cover based on the power rating model are 6-0 ATS.

Again, this model can be an indicator that something else is going on that is not captured by relying on the full-season numbers.

So for betting subscribers, you may consider looking into that angle going forward this year. Tonight, there is one game that meets the criteria.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our college basketball spread picks listed in BetIQ Daily have gone 18-9 so far in the month of February, and ATS college basketball picks rated as playable with 55.0% confidence are 9-4 in February.

As of post time, here are some other highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

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