BetIQ Daily: Warriors vs. Suns Pick, MNF Player Prop and College Basketball Spread Pick
Picks for Monday and Tuesday include a Taylor Heinicke prop for MNF, the big Warriors/Suns game, and a pick on the Gonzaga game.
November 29, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Golden State takes on Phoenix in a showdown of top two NBA records (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
Monday, November 29 (#8)
Welcome to BetIQ Daily, where we highlight a few sports betting picks from our premium data-driven models and analysis.
This is just a small sample of picks available over the next few days, which include college basketball, NBA, Week 13 NFL picks, and the upcoming college football conference championship game picks, where we currently have three playable spreads and five playable over/unders this weekend.
See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.
3 Picks For Monday and Tuesday
1) Golden State +2 (at Phoenix) — NBA Spread Pick
- Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. ET.
- Highest-rated NBA spread pick so far on Monday and Tuesday.
- Playable NBA spread picks are 13-6 so far this season.
- These two teams have the best records in the NBA; Phoenix is on a 16-game winning streak.
- Golden State is our highest-rated NBA team in our predictive power ratings, +2.6 points above Phoenix.
- Warriors are 4-0 against teams in the top 10 of our power ratings, winning each by 14-plus points.
2) Taylor Heinicke Over 242.5 Passing Yards — NFL Player Prop
- Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET.
- Our passing projection for Heinicke is 264.0 yards.
- Heinicke’s median passing yards in starts this year is 256.0.
- Seattle has allowed at least 251 passing yards to every opposing QB in the seven games started by Russell Wilson.
- Six of the seven opposing QBs in those games threw for at least 290 yards.
3) Tarleton State +31 (at Gonzaga) — NCAAB Spread Pick
- Monday, 10:00 p.m. ET.
- One of two currently playable college basketball spread picks on Monday.
- Both our Decision Tree and Similar Games models see value on Tarleton State with the large spread.
- Gonzaga is coming off playing Top Five opponents UCLA and Duke last week, and plays No. 10 Alabama on Saturday.
- The Zags could use their bench more heavily in this matchup, in between games against tougher competition.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season.
These records are for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence, assuming typical -110 payout odds) against game-day betting lines.
- NFL point spread picks: 37-26-1 (59%, +7.7 units)
- College football over/under picks: 168-141-3 (54%, +11.7 units)
- College basketball over/under picks: 229-198-5 (54%, +10.1 units)
- NBA spread picks: 13-6 (68%, +5.8 units)
To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.
We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.
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