BetIQ Daily: Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge and ACC Basketball Picks

Saturday picks for BetIQ include an ACC game between Virginia and Notre Dame and a Big 12-SEC clash between TCU and LSU.

TCU is in action against LSU in the Big 12-SEC Challenge (Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire)

BetIQ Daily is turning back to college basketball for this Saturday’s action, where we have an ACC matchup, a game from the Big 12-SEC Challenge, and a game only a degenerate could love.

1) Notre Dame/Virginia Under 124.5 Points 

  • NCAAB Over/Under Pick
  • Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET on ACC Network
  • Our highest-rated over/under pick in college basketball on Saturday.
  • Virginia is the slowest-paced offense in Division 1, and Notre Dame is in the bottom 80 teams in pace.
  • Over last three games, Notre Dame has shot 46.4 percent on threes while allowing 39 percent shooting from deep, while Virginia has shot 38.0 percent from deep while allowing opponents to shoot 39.3 percent on threes.
  • Those outside shooting numbers are well above each team’s overall season rates, which could provide value with outside shooting regression.

2) TCU +2.5 

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • Saturday vs. LSU, 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2
  • Playable spread pick, according to our Ensemble Forecast Model.
  • LSU could still be without both Darius Days and Xavier Pinson in this matchup.
  • Pinson has missed last five games with a knee injury, and Days missed last game after re-injuring his ankle against Tennessee on Jan. 22.
  • LSU’s average Game Score results have been worse in last five games (+12.1) compared to rest of season (+22.9).
  • TCU is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in nation, and Days is LSU’s best defensive rebounder.

3) Tennessee State -8 

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • Saturday at Eastern Illinois, 4:30 p.m. ET
  • This is our highest-rated playable spread pick in college basketball on Saturday.
  • Eastern Illinois shooting guard Henry Abraham announced he was transferring four games ago, and he led team in minutes played at time.
  • Eastern Illinois is the fifth-worst team in Division I, according to our power ratings.
  • The Panthers’ average performances have been even slightly worse than overall season rating in last four, even though they won their first Division I game on Thursday.
  • As my pappy used to say: “Always go against a team that just won its first Division I game after 17 straight Division I losses.”

SEC vs. Big 12 Challenge

The SEC vs. Big 12 Challenge is today, where we get some great matchups across the two power conferences. (The LSU-TCU pick highlighted above is part of this event.)

Here are the remaining games in the Challenge:

  • Kansas (-5) vs. Kentucky, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Baylor (-3.5) at Alabama, 4 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Texas (-3.5) vs. Tennessee, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Auburn (-9.5) vs. Oklahoma, 2 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Arkansas (-8) vs. West Virginia, 2 p.m. ET on ESPN2
  • Texas Tech (-7.5) vs. Mississippi State, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN2
  • Florida (-3.5) vs. Oklahoma State, 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2
  • Iowa State (-9) vs. Missouri, 2 p.m. ET on ESPNU
  • Kansas State (-1) at Ole Miss, 4 p.m. ET on ESPNU

Sixteen of the teams in action today in the SEC vs. Big 12 games are currently in our projected NCAA Tournament field in our Bracketology section.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

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