BetIQ Daily: Bills vs. Patriots MNF Picks and College Basketball Over/Under
Picks for Monday include the Bills vs. Patriots spread and over/under, plus a college basketball pick involving New Mexico.
December 6, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Josh Allen and the Bills face the Patriots on MNF (Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)
Monday, December 6 (#12)
Welcome to BetIQ Daily, where we highlight a few sports betting picks from our premium data-driven models and analysis.
This is just a small sample of picks available over the next few days, which include college basketball, NBA, and all the upcoming bowl game picks. And if you are playing in any college football bowl pools, our College Bowl Pool Picks are back.
See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.
3 Picks for Monday
1) Buffalo -2.5 (vs. New England) – NFL Spread Pick
- Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- Our final playable NFL spread of Week 13, after the top two (Detroit and Seattle) won yesterday.
- The Patriots and Bills are first and second, respectively, in points allowed.
- Buffalo ranks higher than New England in points scored (second vs. sixth) and yards gained (fourth vs. 15th).
2) Buffalo/New England Under 41.0 Points – NFL Over/Under Pick
- Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- This one is not on our playable picks list based on models, but it is based on weather factors.
- The line opened at 45.0 points but has moved steadily downward.
- The weather forecast in Buffalo currently includes very high winds and potential for lake-effect snow.
***Correlated Same-Game Parlay (SGP): Buffalo -2.5, Under 41 points, Josh Allen Under 233.5 Passing Yards***
- If you want to play a parlay instead, pair the line and total with Josh Allen passing yards, where the number has also been falling.
- While our passing model is neutral on this one at the current total, expect an adjusted game plan in how frequently Buffalo passes given the potential high winds.
- Allen could look to use his legs a lot more against the Patriots defense.
3) New Mexico State/New Mexico Under 150.5 Points – NCAAB Over/Under Pick
- Monday, 9:00 p.m. ET
- Our top playable NCAAB pick for Monday night.
- These two nonconference in-state rivals played last Tuesday, in a high-scoring 101-94 New Mexico win.
- New Mexico is the fourth-fastest-paced team in country, according to Ken Pomeroy.
- Look for NM State, which normally plays much slower, to try to control tempo more in this game given the last result.
- NM State’s other six D-1 games have all ended with fewer than 150 points scored.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 39-28-1 (58%, +7.5 units)
- College football over/under picks: 173-142-3 (55%, +15.3 units)
- NBA spread picks: 13-8 (62%, +3.8 units)
To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.
We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.
Got Feedback?
Thanks for reading this edition of BetIQ Daily!
We plan to try out some different things as we refine this column, and we’d love to hear your suggestions on what to include.
Send us your feedback or ideas at support@teamrankings.com.