BetIQ Daily: Bowl Game Picks for Thursday Through New Year’s Day Games
Picks for Thursday through Saturday include three different bowl spread picks and two over/under plays on the upcoming bowl games.
December 30, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Tennessee is one of several teams that have had big line moves (Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire)
Thursday, December 30 (#28)
With 13 bowl games over the next three days, today’s BetIQ Daily will serve as a Bowl Game Pick Extravaganza of the next 72 hours worth of football. (We opted for one big article now rather than trying to wake up early on New Year’s Day to get some final picks in.)
The upcoming games include both national semifinals in the College Football Playoff. We’ve already written about those CFP game picks here. This article will focus on the rest of the bowl smorgasbord.
See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.
5 Picks for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday (Happy New Year!)
1) Tennessee -7.5 (vs. Purdue) – Bowl Spread Pick
- Thursday, 3:00 p.m. ET
- This one is not a model pick, but we are following the heavy line move with this recommendation.
- Tennessee opened as a 1-point favorite, but this line has continued to climb and was at -6 yesterday, so shop for your best line.
- The line move is likely driven by player participation information, as Purdue has several key opt-outs, including both leading receivers.
- So far this bowl season, teams that have the line move at least three points in their favor from open to close have gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS, covering by over 16 points on average.
- Most of these heavy line moves are driven by player opt-out news/info.
2) Michigan State -3.5 (vs. Pittsburgh) – Bowl Spread Pick
- Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET
- This spread is a playable pick according to our models.
- Line has moved from Michigan State +3.5 to -3.5 since opening.
- Both Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker III and Pitt QB Kenny Pickett, a potential first-rounder, have opted out.
- Pitt playing without its star quarterback is a bigger factor impacting the line.
3) Michigan State/Pitt Under 55.5 Points – Bowl Over/Under Pick
- Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Our top playable over/under pick for remaining bowl games.
- This total opened at 63.0 points but dropped with the player opt-out news.
- With the best offensive player out for both teams, there is still value on the under.
4) Arkansas -2.5 (vs. Penn State) – Bowl Spread Pick
- Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Right on the cutline of a playable pick on Arkansas according to our models.
- Line has moved from Arkansas +4 to Arkansas -2.5 since opening.
- Penn State has had six players opt out to prepare for NFL draft, primarily on defensive side.
- Similar to Tennessee, play on the heavy line movement based on key players sitting out, and jump on this line now to get below the 3-point key number.
5) Wisconsin/Arizona State Over 41.0 Points – Bowl Over/Under Pick
- Thursday, 10:30 p.m. ET
- A playable over/under pick according to our models.
- Lowest total of the bowl season.
- Over last six years, games with a total between 40.0 and 42.0 points have gone over 55.2 percent of the time.
- Nine of the last 15 bowl games with a total of 44.0 or lower have gone over.
The Rest of the Bowl Schedule
In addition to the bowl game picks highlighted above and the two CFP semifinals picks, here are the remaining bowl games over the next three days.
- Duke’s Mayo Bowl, December 30th: North Carolina (-12) vs. South Carolina
- Gator Bowl, December 31st: Wake Forest (-16) vs. Rutgers
- Sun Bowl, December 31st: Washington State (-7) vs. Central Michigan
- Citrus Bowl, January 1st: Kentucky (-3) vs. Iowa
- Fiesta Bowl, January 1st: Notre Dame (-2.5) vs. Oklahoma State
- Rose Bowl, January 1st: Ohio State (-4) vs. Utah
- Sugar Bowl, January 1st: Mississippi (-1.5) vs. Baylor
If you are a subscriber, you can see all of our bowl spread picks and over/under picks on these games.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 43-33-1 (56%, +6.1 units)
- College football over/under picks: 177-144-3 (55%, +16.9 units)
- NBA spread picks: 13-9 (59%, +2.8 units)
- NBA moneyline picks: 70-59 (+9.4 units)
To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.
We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.
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