BetIQ Daily: NCAA Basketball Conference Champion and Final Four Futures Picks

Thursday picks for BetIQ focus on the college basketball conference champion and Final Four picks of value.

January 20, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Should you go ahead and jump on Oscar Tshiebwe and Kentucky's Final Four odds now? (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

BetIQ Daily is turning an eye today toward college basketball’s conference races and the NCAA Tournament. We have several futures picks where we see value.

We highlighted one yesterday—Arizona to win the Pac-12 conference—and the odds to win have already moved there. Let’s get to some more.

1) Villanova -135 to Win Big East

• NCAAB Futures Pick
• This specific line is available at DraftKings.
• You win this wager if Villanova finishes as No. 1 seed entering Big East Tournament.
• We are buying the dip here, as Villanova lost last night to Marquette to fall to 6-2 in Big East play, and its odds to win the Big East also dropped.
• However, we still project Villanova to have a 68.5 percent chance of finishing atop the conference.
• Villanova is No. 8 in our predictive power ratings, highest rank of Big East teams, and has most wins.
• Nova has already swept Xavier, the team with the second-best odds in the betting market to win Big East, so it holds tiebreaker there.
• Providence, the only Big East team with one conference loss, is only No. 48 in our predictive ratings.

2) Davidson +165 to Win Atlantic 10 

• NCAAB Futures Pick
• This specific line is available at DraftKings.
• Our projections have Davidson with a 54.4 percent chance of finishing No. 1 in the A-10, but you can still get it at plus odds.
• The preseason conference favorite, St. Bonaventure, lost at Dayton by 18 points on Tuesday.
• Davidson (5-0) is A-10’s only undefeated team in conference play, and is 15-2 overall.
• Davidson is our highest-rated A-10 team at No. 55 overall.

3) Arizona +380 to Make Final Four

• NCAAB Futures Pick
• This specific line is available at DraftKings.
• We already recommended Arizona at +110 to win the Pac-12 conference (now +100).
• Our bracket predictions have Arizona with a 33 percent chance of reaching the Final Four.
• The Wildcats currently project as a No. 1 seed or No. 2 seed.

4) Kentucky +400 to Make Final Four

• NCAAB Futures Pick
• This specific line is available at DraftKings.
• Our bracket predictions have Kentucky with a 21 percent chance to reach Final Four.
• Kentucky is No. 5 in our predictive power ratings and is playing even better since mid-December.
• Since Dec. 11 loss to Notre Dame, Wildcats’ game results would put them as a top-three team in the country.
• Currently project as a No. 3 seed with ability to improve against a tough SEC schedule.

5) Illinois +550 to Make Final Four

• NCAAB Futures Pick
• This specific line is available at DraftKings.
• Our bracket predictions have Illinois with a 17 percent chance to reach Final Four.
• Currently projects as a No. 3 seed, but can improve on that based on personnel changes.
• Illini are No. 10 in our predictive ratings, but they are even better if you exclude games where they were missing starters (including Kofi Cockburn being suspended for first three games).
• Guard Andre Curbelo has also missed most of season, but just returned in last game and will help depth/rotation for team with limited production off bench.
• Dominant physical center Cockburn has improved his offensive skill and passing out of the post, making this team more dangerous in the tournament.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

• NFL point spread picks: 48-36-2 (57%, +7.6 units)
• College football over/under picks: 180-146-3 (55%, +17.7 units)
• NBA spread picks: 14-10 (58%, +2.7 units)
• NBA moneyline picks: 81-74 (+6.3 units)