College Basketball Picks & Futures – Conference Tournaments (2025)
Get our top college basketball picks, bets, and futures for conference tournaments and key matchups leading up to the NCAA Tournament.
March 15, 2025 - by Jason Lisk
Maryland has the goods to make a tournament run. (Photo: Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)
Welcome to our College Basketball Picks, Bets, and Futures hub for 2025. This article will provide our subscribers with picks and analysis for Conference Tournaments and other March games leading up to Selection Sunday on March 16.
FINAL 2025 RESULTS
| TYPE | RECORD | UNITS |
|---|---|---|
| Game Picks | 16-15 | -0.4 units |
| Futures | 4-2 | +10.85 units |
As of Sunday afternoon, March 16, our run at posting best bets for the 2025 conference tournaments has ended. (On a good note, too, with Florida winning the SEC tourney, which we had recommended at +270.)
Overall, the bets listed in this article returned +10.45 units of profit. Futures picks again delivered great value. Game picks got off to a rough 1-5 start, but rallied back to finish 16-15.
We’ve also taken the paywall off this article, so prospective subscribers can get a sense of the level of analysis we do.
We’ve got another article going for our NCAA Tournament Best Bets, including game picks and futures for the Big Dance.
Our College Basketball Picks & Futures Approach
Every year, we extensively research our NCAA Bracket Picks, evaluating teams beyond their records and overall stats. We look at:
- Injury Impact & Lineup Changes – Teams that have played much better or worse at full strength vs. shorthanded.
- Performance Against Certain Styles – Identifying teams that struggle against fast-paced offenses, elite three-point shooters, or defensive schemes they rarely face.
- Strength of Schedule & Power Ratings – Separating teams with inflated metrics due to weak competition from battle-tested ones.
This process also uncovers key edges in betting markets—from point spreads and totals to conference tournament futures and March Madness props. The same team evaluations that help us construct optimized brackets also expose betting inefficiencies that can be capitalized on.
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College Basketball Picks: Track Record
While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, our approach has delivered strong returns over the last three years (2022-24):
- March Game Picks: 90-64-1 (58.4%) → +20.5 units
- March Futures/Props: 23-24 (48.9%) → +21.9 units
Futures bets have provided a 47% ROI, mainly due to plus-odds picks, including conference tournament winners at +300 or higher and Sweet 16/Final Four props.
While we do not expect to hit that ridiculous level of return on futures, we will continue to look for value in the conference tournaments and NCAA Tournament and provide you with analysis so you can decide if you agree with us.
Full Schedule & Picks Summary
Conference Tournament Futures Bets
Most Recent College Basketball Picks
Saturday, March 15
Here is our complete set of ratings on the 20 games that start at 1 p.m. ET or later on Saturday. We have our picks below, but we wanted to provide our full handicapping.
NOTE: Houston and Duke numbers are based on injury impact; St. John’s number includes a partial home-court advantage number, and at full strength, you can add one more full point.
| Favorite | Underdog | Our Number | Actual Spread | Difference | Fav Rating | Dog Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado St | Boise State | -1.6 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 13.9 | 12.3 |
| Maryland | Michigan | -5.5 | -4.5 | 1.0 | 20.4 | 14.9 |
| Saint Josephs | George Mason | -1.7 | -1.0 | 0.7 | 9.1 | 7.4 |
| Memphis | Tulane | -9.0 | -8.5 | 0.5 | 12.9 | 3.9 |
| Jackson State | Alabama State | -3.4 | -3.0 | 0.4 | -1.6 | -5.0 |
| Grand Canyon | Utah Valley | -4.6 | -4.5 | 0.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 |
| Michigan State | Wisconsin | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 21.6 | 18.6 |
| Iona | Mt. St. Mary's | -3.4 | -3.5 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -4.0 |
| Akron | Miami OH | -6.2 | -6.5 | -0.3 | 6.2 | 0.0 |
| Auburn | Tennessee | -4.0 | -4.5 | -0.5 | 24.8 | 20.8 |
| UC-San Diego | UC-Irvine | -5.3 | -6.0 | -0.7 | 12.9 | 7.6 |
| Duke | Louisville | -5.2 | -6.0 | -0.8 | 23.4 | 18.2 |
| Florida | Alabama | -2.5 | -3.5 | -1.0 | 25.2 | 22.7 |
| Cornell | Dartmouth | -4.5 | -5.5 | -1.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 |
| Houston | Arizona | -5.5 | -6.5 | -1.0 | 24.3 | 18.8 |
| Liberty | Jacksonville St | -4.8 | -6.0 | -1.2 | 7.0 | 2.2 |
| St. John's | Creighton | -5.1 | -6.5 | -1.4 | 21.1 | 16.0 |
| North Texas | UAB | -1.4 | -3.0 | -1.6 | 7.7 | 6.3 |
| VCU | Loyola-Chicago | -7.4 | -9.5 | -2.1 | 15.9 | 8.5 |
| Norfolk State | S Carolina State | 0.7 | -1.5 | -2.2 | -2.2 | -1.5 |
Saturday’s Top Picks
Loyola-Chicago (+9.5) vs. VCU
- Tip-off: Saturday, March 15 @ 1 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Saturday, March 15
- Analysis: Loyola is undervalued, and I will continue to ride them.
- Loyola-Chicago has been good with the current lineup, significantly better than their overall power rating based on several lineups at the start of the year.
- Over the last 12 games, since Jalen Quinn was moved to bench at point guard, and Kymany Houinsou was put back in the lineup as a “big” point guard at 6’7″, who does not shoot from outside but drives and dishes, Loyola has averaged a +9.1 rating, compared to +1.0 in all other games. (Houinsou, a Washington State transfer, missed a month with a leg injury.)
- Loyola-Chicago is now 11-2 ATS in the last 13 games and just avenged their only poor game in that stretch with the win over Saint Louis.
South Carolina State (+1.5) vs. Norfolk State
- Tip-off: Saturday, March 15 @ 1 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Saturday, March 15
- Analysis: SC State has been way better with the current rotation.
- Our models favor Norfolk State here, but we are willing to go against that because these MEAC teams can tend to have vastly different lineups and players used, making models based on the full-season numbers versus recent stats far less reliable. As a case in point, South Carolina State has three starters who had not been starting for the first two-and-a-half months but are now in the lineup regularly.
- Since freshman Jayden Johnson was inserted as a starter, South Carolina State is 11-0 SU (7-1-2 ATS).
- Wilson Dubinsky was inserted as a starter one game after Johnson and is shooting 39% from three, and the team’s outside shooting has improved. The other significant factor is on the defensive end, where South Carolina State is turning teams over at a high rate, and Johnson is a big factor in that.
Maryland (-4.5) vs. Michigan
- Tip-off: Saturday, March 15 @ 3:30 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Saturday, March 15
- Analysis: Michigan has struggled against teams like Maryland, who are great at guarding the paint.
- Michigan is only 1-8 ATS against power conference schools in the Top 100 in block percentage on defense and 0-7 ATS against teams in the Top 100 in opponent two-point field goal percentage defense, including the outright loss at home to Maryland last week. Maryland has multiple post defenders led by Derik Queen and ranks 58th and 50th in those two categories.
- Michigan is one of the tallest teams in the country, starting with two 7-footers. They have been able to exploit teams that cannot match up, but they have not done as well against teams that can neutralize their size and make Michigan’s guard play (where they can struggle with turnovers) a bigger factor.
Colorado State (PK) vs. Boise State
- Tip-off: Saturday, March 15 @ 6 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Saturday, March 15
- Analysis: Based on recent form and the current lineup, we rate Colorado State as the best team in the MWC tourney and the favorite in this game.
- We already listed Colorado State at +350 pre-tournament to win the MWC as a futures pick, so if you already took that, you can choose to let that ride or add this pick. We also added last night’s game as a PK, and Colorado State immediately jumped out to a double-digit lead. With 10 minutes left, it led 71-44 before winning by 11.
- Colorado State’s quality is masked by some games with different lineup combinations and players out early in the season. With over 21 games in this current lineup, they are at a +14.5 average power rating, more than three points over their full-season average that used games with all lineups.
- Colorado State has the best player on the court: future NBA player Nique Clifford. He’s been dominating lately, averaging over 25 points a game in his last five and adding double-digit rebounds in both tournament wins.
Conference Tournament Futures Picks
Full Breakdown
| DATE | TEAM | PICK | ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 3/12 | Colorado State | MWC Tourney Winner | +350 |
| Mon 3/10 | Florida | SEC Tourney Winner | +270 |
| Mon 3/10 | Iowa State | Big 12 Tourney Winner | +700 |
| Wed 3/5 | Drake | MVC Tourney Winner | +115 |
| Wed 3/5 | Vermont | America East Tourney Winner | +230 |
| Mon 3/3 | Omaha | Summit Tourney Winner | +550 |
Colorado State (+350) to Win Mountain West Tournament
- Pick Posted: Wednesday, March 12
- Analysis: Colorado State looks like the best team in the league lately with the current lineup.
- You can see our fuller breakdown of the Mountain West Conference with notes on the top contenders.
- Colorado State’s quality is masked by some games with different lineup combinations and players out early in the season. With over 21 games in this current lineup, they are at a +14.1 average power rating, providing some value against futures priced on their overall power numbers.
- Some other top contenders have injury or form concerns, and Colorado State is on a 7-0 SU and ATS streak, covering by a massive +13.6 points on average over that span.
- Colorado State is still on the wrong side of the bubble and may need to play their way in with an auto bid (or at least reach the Final). However, a la New Mexico just a year ago in the same conference, we think they have the quality to get it done.
Florida (+270) to Win SEC Tournament
- Pick Posted: Monday, March 10
- Analysis: Florida is arguably the best team in SEC since the start of January.
- The Gators have a +26.2 average Game Score since the start of January, even higher than Auburn.
- Florida has won outright at Alabama and Auburn in conference play.
- Florida got off to a relatively slower start (they were still really good) early on, as they were integrating several transfers and new players. Also, a news story about head coach Todd Golden under a Title IX investigation came out just as the season started. He was cleared by December, but that may have also had an early impact.
- Despite injuries in conference play, Florida is balanced and deep and has continued to rise. The only bad performance of late was at Georgia. Walter Clayton, Jr., Alex Condon, and Alijah Martin all missed starts over an eight-game stretch, and they only lost one game. Now, everyone is healthy and ready to go for the SEC Tournament, where their depth can be a bigger factor.
- Florida is also the most balanced team statistically, ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive metrics and having no apparent flaws. (Auburn, for example, rates poorly in defensive rebounding, which cost them three conference losses.)
- Finally, Florida is playing for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and they are in a position to win, but they will likely need to finish strong.
- This +270 line is currently available at DraftKings. Playable at +250 as well.
Iowa State (+700) to Win Big 12 Tournament
- Pick Posted: Monday, March 10
- Analysis: Iowa State is better than average numbers, which are already pretty good.
- Iowa State is a really good team that has dealt with several missed games to key players, providing value as the Big 12 tournament begins.
- We also think Houston is slightly overvalued here. After dealing with injuries that de-railed their NCAA Tournament hopes coming out of the Big 12 tournament last year, they may not be as motivated if the No. 1 seed is secured.
- The wild card here is Iowa State’s Keshon Gilbert, who missed three of the last five games with a groin strain. Head coach T.J. Otzelberger’s comments from yesterday indicated Gilbert is expected to return to practice Monday before the tournament. Still, if you want to take a wait-and-see approach in exchange for potentially losing some line value, you could do that.
- Iowa State has a +24.2 average Game Score (No. 1 seed level, and similar to Houston’s overall rating) in games where Lipsey/Gilbert/Momcilivic/Jefferson/Jackson all start, with Curtis Jones coming off the bench as a high-scoring weapon and sixth man. They are +15.5 in the 10 games where at least one of them was out.
- This Iowa State team is once again strong defensively, as have all of Otzelberger’s recent teams, but it is much better on offense than past versions. We think that balance can take them to a title where they have plenty of seeding to play for, potentially getting as high as the last No. 2 seed or a No. 3 seed.
Drake (+115) to Win Missouri Valley
- Tournament Dates: March 6-9
- Pick Posted: Wednesday, March 5
- Where Available at Post Time: The +115 number is available at FanDuel.
- You can see our fuller breakdown of the Missouri Valley Conference with notes on the top contenders.
- Analysis: #1 seed Drake (27-3) has been substantially better in the best matchups they have faced. They are 14-4 ATS in all games where they were an underdog, favored by under 10 points, or facing one of the opponents again that beat them.
- We think there’s a good chance they are substantially better than their average rating based on their high median performance against the toughest games on their schedule and the fact that they have played to and above the level of their opponents.
- We would play this as long as you can get Drake at a plus number, but we would lay off if you have to lay juice. For example, they are -110 at BetMGM versus this number at FanDuel.
Vermont (+230) to Win America East
- Tournament Dates: March 8, 11, and 15
- Pick Posted: Wednesday, March 5
- Where Available at Post Time: The +230 number is available at DraftKings.
- You can see our fuller breakdown of the America East with notes on the top contenders.
- Analysis: #2 seed Vermont had early struggles and injuries but has been playing significantly better down the stretch. We think they are undervalued here in what looks like a two-team race between Vermont and #1 seed, Bryant.
- Vermont has won nine in a row, and their last two losses came when their leading scorer was out. They are about nine points better now with the current lineup healthy compared to all previous games.
- DraftKings has the best number, but the +210 at FanDuel is also playable, and we would play this down to +185 if necessary before the tournament starts.
Omaha (+550) to Win Summit League
- Tournament Dates: March 5-9
- Pick Posted: Monday, March 3
- Where Available at Post Time: The +550 number is available at FanDuel and BetMGM.
- You can see our fuller breakdown of the Summit League with notes on the top contenders.
- Analysis: #1 seed Omaha is coming at a significantly longer price than the other three top contenders because of their overall power rating. However, as noted, their performance has been substantially better over their last 20 games after a lineup shift and starting a new point guard.
- Omaha led the Summit League in offensive efficiency in conference games, and point guard J.J. White easily led the league in assists (5.3 per game) in conference play, while also being 6th in scoring. Omaha’s leading scorer, Marquel Sutton, was 2nd in scoring and has scored at least 18 points in 11 straight games.
- Compared to other top contenders, Omaha enters healthy and in form. #3 South Dakota State lost their starting point guard two games ago, while #4 North Dakota State’s best player missed the final game with a wrist injury, and his status is unknown for the start of the tournament.
- We put Omaha’s odds at 20% to win the Summit League and see value down to +450.
Conference Tournament Notes
You can see our full Conference Tournament projection page here. Before each conference bracket is finalized, we will show the projected average seed and advancement odds. Once each conference finalizes its regular season and sets the bracket, we will show our advancement odds for the actual bracket.
For some larger conferences, I list tables. Here is the code for those.
“My rating” is the rating after reviewing and handicapping teams. “Current” is the predictive power rating shown on our rankings page as of the time the table is created. “Raw” does not include any preseason priors or expectations, and is just the basic power rating numbers based on the results this year (whereas “current” does still include some weighting for preseason expectations). Any odds listed are based on bracket simulations run with “my ratings.”
These notes will provide key observations as we review some conference tournaments. Here is a summary of the conferences covered so far:
- Big Ten
- Big East
- Mountain West
- ACC
- Big 12
- SEC
- Big Sky
- Missouri Valley
- America East
- Southern Conference
- Summit League
- Horizon League
- Atlantic Sun
Big Ten
The Big Ten has a lot of competitive teams, led by the top seed, Michigan State. There are many teams, though, with a greater than 10% chance of cutting down the nets in Indy. (posted March 12):
- Michigan State and Maryland are the top two seeds and the two favorites to win.
- However, the following two teams we have as the most likely to win come out of the 6 seed (Purdue) and 7 seed (Illinois), and if looking for longer shot value, those two are options to consider.
- Wisconsin is a bit of a wild card, as they are expected to get Max Klesmit back. He missed the end of the regular season, when they struggled with a 1-2 close after a good run for most conference play.
- Michigan has really struggled of late, particularly with teams with height that can match its own and teams that can defend the paint. Unfortunately for them, you are going to match up with teams that meet those criteria if you want to make a deep run in the tourney.
Our adjusted ratings and projected win odds for this tournament.
| Seed | Teams | My Rating | Current | Raw | Odds to Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan State | 21.6 | 19.6 | 20.3 | 26% |
| 2 | Maryland | 19.8 | 19.3 | 20.9 | 17% |
| 3 | Michigan | 13.8 | 15.8 | 16.6 | 4% |
| 4 | UCLA | 16.9 | 16.9 | 17.6 | 9% |
| 5 | Wisconsin | 18.1 | 17.6 | 18.4 | 9% |
| 6 | Purdue | 19.8 | 18.8 | 18.9 | 16% |
| 7 | Illinois | 19.3 | 18.3 | 19.6 | 11% |
| 8 | Oregon | 15.8 | 14.8 | 15.2 | 4% |
| 9 | Indiana | 14.5 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 2% |
| 10 | Ohio State | 14.3 | 15.3 | 16.1 | 1% |
| 11 | Rutgers | 10.5 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 0% |
| 12 | Minnesota | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 0% |
| 13 | Northwestern | 11.7 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 0% |
| 14 | USC | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 0% |
| 15 | Iowa | 10.4 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 0% |
Big East
St. John’s ruled the Big East regular season, but the top five seeds all look like contenders here. Our notes (posted March 12):
- We have positive adjustments for each of the top four seeds in the Big East and negative ones for some of the already weaker teams.
- #1 St. John’s has played better against the top competition on their schedule. Their rating also includes a partial home-court bump for the tournament being at Madison Square Garden.
- #2 Creighton has been better with this current lineup, while #4 Xavier has come on strong since Zach Freemantle returned from an injury.
Our adjusted ratings and projected win odds for this tournament.
| Seed | Teams | My Rating | Current | Raw | Odds to Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Johns | 19.4 | 18.4 | 19.2 | 37% |
| 2 | Creighton | 16.9 | 14.9 | 14.8 | 19% |
| 3 | Connecticut | 17.6 | 16.6 | 16.4 | 18% |
| 4 | Xavier | 15.7 | 13.7 | 14.0 | 8% |
| 5 | Marquette | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.8 | 12% |
| 6 | Villanova | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 4% |
| 7 | Georgetown | 6.3 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 1% |
| 8 | Providence | 5.7 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 0% |
| 9 | Butler | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 1% |
| 10 | DePaul | 2.5 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 0% |
| 11 | Seton Hall | 0.2 | 0.2 | -1.1 | 0% |
Mountain West
New Mexico won the regular season, but we have the highest-rated team on current form as one not currently projected in the NCAA Tournament field (posted March 12):
- #2 Colorado State is our highest-rated team entering the tournament. With their current starting lineup, they are 15-6 ATS and 16-5 SU, with an average power rating of +14.1, compared to +4.4 in all other games (including those at the start of the year without their best rebounder, Rashan Mbembe).
- Colorado State is also playing to make the NCAA Tournament and might need the outright title to get in, similar to New Mexico a year ago.
- #1 New Mexico is rated only slightly lower and has the best odds to win because the early draw in the potential 8/9 matchup is far more favorable than what the other contenders face.
- #4 San Diego State is also playing for their NCAA Tournament lives and have a question mark with center Magoon Gwath. He has missed the last four games with a knee injury and is questionable to return this week.
- Our number for #6 UNLV includes a partial home-court adjustment for the tournament in Las Vegas.
Our adjusted ratings and projected win odds for this tournament.
| Seed | Teams | My Rating | Current | Raw | Odds to Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico | 13.2 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 27% |
| 2 | Colorado State | 13.5 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 24% |
| 3 | Utah State | 10.7 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 14% |
| 4 | San Diego State | 10.4 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 10% |
| 5 | Boise State | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 14% |
| 6 | UNLV | 7.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5% |
| 7 | Nevada | 7.7 | 8 | 7.7 | 5% |
| 8 | San Jose State | 0.9 | -1.3 | -1.2 | 1% |
| 9 | Wyoming | -2 | -1.6 | -1.6 | 0% |
| 10 | Fresno State | -6.4 | -6.4 | -6.5 | 0% |
| 11 | Air Force | -10.2 | -8.6 | -9.2 | 0% |
ACC
The ACC looks like a Duke celebration, but can anyone upset the party? Duke’s odds are so short that there is probably not much value in the betting market, but here are some notes (posted March 10):
- Duke, Clemson, and Louisville all appear to be peaking at the right time. They dominated the conference, with only five total losses and two outside of playing each other (oddly enough, both against Georgia Tech).
- North Carolina is also in good form. They may not even make it to the NCAA Tournament because the committee overemphasizes big wins, but they look like an at-large caliber team in our predictive ratings. Unfortunately, they are 0-6 against teams we project on our top two seed lines and 20-6 against everyone else. They are a long shot because of the draw but could provide value as they push to still get in the field.
- SMU struggled down the stretch, Wake Forest is inconsistent, and Pittsburgh was worse without Damian Dunn (and fell to the 13 seed). Those teams are in the next tier, with a significant drop-off.
Our adjusted ratings and projected win odds for this tournament.
| Seed | Teams | My Rating | Current Rating | Raw Rating | Odds to Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 28.8 | 27.8 | 29.3 | 68% |
| 2 | Louisville | 18.5 | 16.3 | 17.9 | 12% |
| 3 | Clemson | 18.9 | 16.7 | 17.2 | 12% |
| 4 | Wake Forest | 10.5 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 1% |
| 5 | North Carolina | 17.0 | 15.2 | 14.7 | 5% |
| 6 | SMU | 12.5 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 1% |
| 7 | Stanford | 7.9 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 0% |
| 8 | Georgia Tech | 7.3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 0% |
| 9 | Virginia | 5.7 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 0% |
| 10 | Virginia Tech | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0% |
| 11 | Florida State | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 0% |
| 12 | Notre Dame | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 0% |
| 13 | Pittsburgh | 10.8 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 0% |
| 14 | Syracuse | 6.8 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 0% |
| 15 | California | 4.7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 0% |
Big 12
Houston won the conference again with a large group of contenders behind them. Our notes (posted March 10):
- Houston went 19-1, but they also caught Texas Tech and Iowa State with key players out and played (and crushed) BYU in early January before the Cougars made rotation changes and emerged. So, there is a timing factor in how much they won the league.
- Based on our adjusted ratings after accounting for injuries, the value spot is probably on #2 Texas Tech or #5 Iowa State. Both teams had several games without key players, and they should be relatively better now.
- BYU and Kansas are even longer shots, but would be the other teams to watch here.
- Baylor has been sliding lately after losing its starting center, and it’s not a given that it will win over Kansas State (or Arizona State). We have a positive adjustment on Kansas State based on lineup/injury factors and a negative one on Arizona State since they dismissed B.J. Freeman from the team.
Our adjusted ratings and projected win odds for this tournament.
| Seed | Teams | My Rating | Current | Raw | Odds to Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston | 24.0 | 24.9 | 26.0 | 34% |
| 2 | Texas Tech | 21.2 | 20.7 | 21.7 | 20% |
| 3 | Arizona | 18.5 | 19.8 | 20.3 | 10% |
| 4 | BYU | 18.4 | 17.0 | 17.7 | 8% |
| 5 | Iowa State | 21.5 | 20.7 | 21.0 | 15% |
| 6 | Kansas | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.5 | 8% |
| 7 | Baylor | 14.2 | 16.7 | 16.8 | 2% |
| 8 | West Virginia | 11.2 | 12.5 | 13.6 | 1% |
| 9 | TCU | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 0% |
| 10 | Kansas State | 11.8 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 1% |
| 11 | Utah | 9.1 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 0% |
| 12 | Oklahoma State | 8.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 0% |
| 13 | Cincinnati | 11.9 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 0% |
| 14 | UCF | 9.2 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 0% |
| 15 | Arizona State | 5.6 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 0% |
| 16 | Colorado | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 0% |
SEC
Auburn won the league but closed with a couple of losses. Florida is surging, and the four teams with double byes are all projected as a No. 1 or 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Our notes (posted March 10):
- Auburn won the league at 15-3 over Florida at 14-4, but Florida has had the higher average Game Score since January 1st (+26.1 to +24.8). The difference is that Auburn played like the best team in the country for the first two months, which is reflected in their overall power rating.
- It will be hard for anyone who does not have the double bye to win the tournament, as we would give one of the top four seeds collectively about an 85% chance of winning it.
- Given the five-game gauntlet that would be required in five days and the tough matchups, we have every team at a 9 seed or lower with a 0% chance. Of course, there is rounding error, so there is a chance, just a slim one, for all those teams who play on Wednesday.
- Kentucky lost Jaxson Robinson but has gotten healthier and is trending up. They are the highest-rated team outside the top four.
- Arkansas’ Adou Thiero missed the final three games, and we have not yet seen an update on his availability (Arkansas also has no incentive to be forthcoming there, sitting above the bubble right now).
- Georgia has emerged, while Texas and Mississippi State have been notable sliders recently. Missouri’s form and defensive numbers have also been down in recent games compared to their peak.
Our adjusted ratings and projected win odds for this tournament.
| Seed | Teams | My Rating | Current | Raw | Odds to Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auburn | 24.9 | 25.9 | 27.6 | 29% |
| 2 | Florida | 25.3 | 23.0 | 24.6 | 28% |
| 3 | Alabama | 23.1 | 22.6 | 23.0 | 16% |
| 4 | Tennessee | 20.4 | 21.4 | 22.3 | 12% |
| 5 | Texas A&M | 17.5 | 17.0 | 17.6 | 4% |
| 6 | Kentucky | 19.3 | 18.5 | 19.9 | 5% |
| 7 | Missouri | 17.3 | 16.4 | 17.6 | 2% |
| 8 | Mississippi | 15.5 | 15.1 | 15.5 | 2% |
| 9 | Arkansas | 13.1 | 13.6 | 13.7 | 0% |
| 10 | Mississippi St | 13.4 | 14.7 | 15.1 | 0% |
| 11 | Georgia | 15.0 | 14.0 | 15.1 | 0% |
| 12 | Vanderbilt | 11.2 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 0% |
| 13 | Texas | 11.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 0% |
| 14 | Oklahoma | 13.1 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 0% |
| 15 | LSU | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 0% |
| 16 | South Carolina | 8.1 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 0% |
Big Sky
The Big Sky gives us five contenders and five teams, which would be a major surprise if they won. Here are our notes (posted March 7):
- #1 Northern Colorado is the relative betting favorite, and we agree with that assessment. However, we don’t see much value, as our estimate is around 21% win odds for the tournament, and they are being priced as a heavier favorite.
- We also have a slight upward adjustment on #2 Montana, but we do not see value there.
- The value spots look like the #3 to #5 seeds, especially #3 Portland State. However, it is only a slight value right now, and we have their odds to win at 16%. We will probably monitor the first-round games in this one, both for Portland State and the #4 Idaho State vs. #5 Montana State matchup, to see who emerges.
Missouri Valley
Drake has been the story of the Missouri Valley Conference this year and has a strong case for an at-large even if they do not win the tournament. Can anyone else break through to make it a potential two-bid league? Here are our notes (posted March 5):
- #1 Drake argues for being much better than their average power rating would suggest. They have been a “play just above the level of the competition” team. In games where they were either an underdog or favored by less than 10 points (or in their one revenge game as a more significant favorite), they are 14-4 ATS and outperformed the spread by 6 points on average. In all other games, they are 1-9 ATS while going 9-1 SU.
- Drake’s power rating in those 12 “key” games is +12.5, which puts them in our Top 50. The median performance in those games (since a couple of games are pulling it down) is closer to +14.0 points, and they have wins over Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Miami-Florida, and Bradley.
- Bradley is the #2 seed and fairly rated. Based on their performance with the current lineup, we have a positive adjustment upward on #3 Northern Iowa.
- The rest of the league is pretty balanced, but there is a bigger gap between the top three and everyone else. We estimate that there is about an 80% chance that one of the top three will win this tournament.
America East
Bryant broke Vermont’s stranglehold on the conference regular season title, as the Catamounts had won at least a share of the regular season title for eight straight years. Can they also stop Vermont’s run in the conference tournament, where they have represented the conference in all but two years since 2017? Here are our notes (posted March 5):
- #1 Bryant gets a slight positive adjustment, from +1.8 to +2.5, based on some games with starters out and being a little better at full strength.
- However, #2 Vermont gets our biggest adjustment. The preseason favorite was 11-11 until a nine-game winning streak to close the regular season. They have won 10 straight with the current lineup, as the last two losses were with this year’s leading scorer T.J. Hurley out.
- Vermont lost last year’s leading scorer, T.J. Long, after eight games and had a rough start to the year. Since they inserted Sam Alamutu into the lineup in early January, though, and when the rest of the starters are healthy, they have been much better. Based on their performance with the current starters, we have them rated as +2.7 compared to their full season rating of -1.6.
- Vermont also catches a little break with the format, which re-seeds after the quarterfinals. The next two highest-rated teams are #3 Maine and #6 UMass-Lowell, and instead of being guaranteed to play either if it was a traditional bracket, they could benefit significantly in their path (and Bryant’s getting more difficult) with a UMass-Lowell slight upset.
- We’ve got Bryant still slightly ahead because of home court, but the top two are closer than the betting markets (and our automated odds), thanks to Vermont’s recent performance with the current lineup. We have Bryant at 41% to win and Vermont at 38% to win, easily the two biggest favorites in the America East.
Southern Conference
Our automated ratings and projections have #4 Samford as the favorite in the Southern Conference. However, upon closer examination, we see that a different team is the most likely winner in a balanced tournament. Here are our notes (posted March 5):
- #1 Chattanooga is our highest-rated team after winning the regular season. Frank Champion, who leads the team in rebounds per game, assists per game, and blocks per game, missed the first eight games. Chattanooga has averaged a +4.4 rating with him as a starter, after being at -2.5 to start the year. Their odds rise to 26% to win after adjustment.
- #4 Samford is the second-highest rated team, but it is on the tougher side of the bracket. Three of our top four rated teams are on the same side, which impacts its odds (19%).
- #2 UNC-Greensboro is the highest-rated team on the other side of the bracket and has the much easier draw as #7 VMI (or #10 Citadel) are by far the lowest-rated potential opponent in the quarterfinals for any of the top 4 seeds. Because of the path, UNC-Greensboro has slightly higher odds (20%) than Samford despite being rated 2 points lower head-to-head on a neutral court.
Summit League
The top four teams in the Summit League all look like potential contenders for the conference title. The favorite, #3 South Dakota State, has represented the Summit League in the NCAA Tournament in 7 of the last 12. However, we see value elsewhere in 2025 (posted March 3):
- South Dakota State suffered a key loss when freshman point guard, Owen Larson, sustained a knee injury a week ago. In the season finale loss, they had their worst performance of the year, including a season-worst turnover rate and 17 total turnovers. As a result, we’ve downgraded South Dakota State in our ratings and have their odds below 30% from our automated projections and what Ken Pomeroy shows.
- #2 St. Thomas is our highest-rated team entering the conference tournament, slightly, and we have them rated similarly to their overall rating.
- The best value, though, looks like the #1 seed Omaha. Omaha is the lowest-rated team of the top four. That is heavily influenced, though, by their bad start to the season. Since J.J. White was moved into the starting lineup as point guard after a 2-7 start against D-1 teams, Omaha has gone 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS. Their average game rating is +2.2 over those last 20 games, compared to -8.2 in the nine games before.
- #4 North Dakota State is listed as a co-favorite with South Dakota State at some books, but we also have a slight downgrade on them based on recent form and uncertain injury news. Jacksen Moni, the leading scorer in Summit League play, missed the season finale with a wrist injury, and his status has not been clarified. Even with him, their form has been worse recently (-1.0 rating since the start of January vs. +3.2 before).
- We’ve got it at 23% St. Thomas, 21% South Dakota State, 20% North Dakota State, 19% Omaha if Moni plays for North Dakota State. If he is not, the other three rise by 1% each, and North Dakota State drops to 14%.
Horizon League
The Horizon League is reasonably balanced. Robert Morris won the regular season, while Milwaukee is the highest power-rated team and betting favorite. Here are some notes (posted March 3):
- Milwaukee should have the shortest odds and is fairly priced at around +250 as the #3 seed.
- #1 Robert Morris is a little better than our overall power rating based on their current lineup in conference play.
- The biggest challenge in pricing this tournament is out of the #4 Youngstown vs. #5 Purdue-Fort Wayne game. Both had their best players miss games at the end of the season (E.J. Farmer for Youngstown, Jalen Jackson, the likely Conference Player of the Year, for Fort Wayne). It’s not clear what their status will be for the quarterfinal.
- #7 Northern Kentucky is playing notably better with the current lineup over the final nine games, closing 7-2 SU and ATS, after a 4-7 conference start. They are still probably too much of a long shot to play to win it all at +3400, but we might look at the game line for the quarterfinal matchup with Cleveland State later in the week..
Atlantic Sun
The Atlantic Sun gives us our first conference tournament for 2025. Here are some key observations (posted March 1):
- The format strongly favors the top seed (and the top two seeds) because the better seed gets to host throughout. That helps explain why #1 Lipscomb and #2 North Alabama make up a big chunk of the win odds.
- The other factor is that the bottom of the A-Sun really drops off after the top 6. Central Arkansas and Stetson are among the 15 worst teams in Division 1 and provide Lipscomb with a virtual bye into the semifinals.
- That said, we have a downward adjustment on #1 Lipscomb, based on the performance since starting center Dylan Faulkner suffered a broken foot in December. They are still the best team, but we see this as closer than our automated odds show.
- #3 Florida-Gulf Coast is our biggest value as a sleeper, but it is a long shot because of the format and the more difficult path (and likely needing two road wins). That FGCU adjusted rating is based on their average result in the 18 games with the current starting lineup.
- #4 Jacksonville is a wild card. Starting forward, Stephon Payne, the best rebounder and shot blocker on the team, missed the final five games but is reportedly a game-time decision for the quarterfinal. The better way to play this might be to see if he plays and look at some game picks after the tourney starts.
Jason’s adjusted odds to win:
| Seed | Team | Odds to Win | Adjusted Rating | Base Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lipscomb | 58% | 3.6 | 5.3 |
| 2 | N Alabama | 22% | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| 3 | FGCU | 12% | 0.6 | -0.8 |
| 4 | Jacksonville | 5% | -1.8 | -2.7 |
| 5 | E Kentucky | 2% | -2.5 | -2.5 |
| 6 | Queens | 1% | -3.7 | -4.1 |
| 7 | Austin Peay | 0% | -7.4 | -7.4 |
| 8 | N Florida | 0% | -5.1 | -5.8 |
| 9 | Stetson | 0% | -13.5 | -13.5 |
| 10 | C Arkansas | 0% | -12.2 | -12.9 |
Previous Game Picks
Friday, March 14
Here is our full set of ratings on big games for the day (all Power 5 games + a few others). We have the picks below from those, but we wanted to provide our full handicapping. (NOTE: Kentucky and Duke numbers are based on injury impact; teams with a rest advantage coming off a bye are getting a +0.8 boost.)
| Favorite | Underdog | Our Number | Actual Spread | Difference | Fav Rating | Dog Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue | Michigan | -6.0 | -2.5 | 2.7 | 19.8 | 13.8 |
| Colorado St | Utah St | -2.5 | 0 | 2.5 | 13.5 | 11 |
| Loyola-Chicago | Saint Louis | -2.8 | -1.5 | 1.3 | 7.9 | 5.1 |
| Alabama | Kentucky | -7.4 | -7.0 | 1.2 | 22.6 | 15.2 |
| Michigan St | Oregon | -5.8 | -6.0 | 0.6 | 21.6 | 15.8 |
| St. John's | Marquette | -4.5 | -4.0 | 0.5 | 21.7 | 17.2 |
| Texas Tech | Arizona | -2.4 | -2.0 | 0.4 | 21.2 | 18.8 |
| Maryland | Illinois | -0.5 | -1.0 | 0.3 | 19.8 | 19.3 |
| New Mexico | Boise St | -1.2 | -1.5 | -0.3 | 13.2 | 12.0 |
| UC San Diego | UCSB | -11 | -11.5 | -0.5 | 11.4 | 0.4 |
| Florida | Missouri | -8.2 | -9.5 | -0.5 | 25.2 | 17.0 |
| Tennessee | Texas | -8.6 | -10.0 | -0.6 | 20.8 | 12.2 |
| Clemson | Louisville | -0.8 | -1.5 | -0.7 | 18.9 | 18.1 |
| Wisconsin | UCLA | -1.2 | -1.5 | -1.1 | 18.1 | 16.9 |
| Duke | No Carolina | -5.8 | -7.0 | -1.2 | 23.4 | 17.6 |
| Connecticut | Creighton | -2.7 | -4.0 | -1.3 | 18.6 | 15.9 |
| Auburn | Ole Miss | -9.4 | -12.5 | -2.3 | 24.9 | 15.5 |
| Houston | BYU | -4.6 | -7.0 | -2.4 | 23.8 | 19.2 |
Friday’s Top Picks
Loyola-Chicago (-1.5) vs. Saint Louis
- Tip-off: Friday, March 14 @ 2 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Friday, March 14
- Analysis: Loyola was really good, except in the last game against SLU. Revenge game?
- Loyola-Chicago has been good with the current lineup, significantly better than their overall power rating based on several lineups at the start of the year.
- The one exception was the blowout loss at Saint Louis, which was easily the Billikens’ best offensive performance of the year. They made 18 threes, only attempted 14 shots inside the arc, and made a lot of free throws. That game sticks out, and Loyola-Chicago likely wants another chance at this.
- Loyola-Chicago is 10-1 ATS in the last 12 games, excluding the loss at Saint Louis.
Purdue (-2.5) vs. Michigan
- Tip-off: Friday, March 14 @ 9 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Friday, March 14
- Analysis: Michigan is trending down, and Purdue has been noticeably better since Jan. 1.
- Since Caleb Furst and C.J. Cox joined the lineup on Jan. 2, Purdue’s average score has been +21.4 over a 19-game sample, more than 2.5 points better than the full season average.
- Purdue is 12-7 ATS over that span with this lineup.
- Michigan has faltered in Big Ten play, posting a negative point differential despite getting the No. 3 seed. They are 2-13 ATS over their last 15, and their average power rating is only +13.0 since the start of January, more than 3 points lower than their full season average.
Alabama (-7) vs. Kentucky
- Tip-off: Friday, March 14 @ 9:30 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Friday, March 14
- Analysis: Lamont Butler’s injury is a significant factor.
- Kentucky is noticeably worse when they do not have Lamont Butler, with an average Game Score of +14.2 in games where he misses (compared to +21.5 when he plays).
- They also struggled after he left last night’s game after playing 8 minutes, with a re-aggravation of the shoulder injury that caused him to miss games. Kentucky jumped out to an immediate 12-3 lead in the early minutes of the win over Oklahoma. Still, it failed to cover and struggled against Oklahoma’s late pressure, winning by 1 point as a 6.5-point favorite.
- While he is not officially ruled out, we think it’s unlikely that Kentucky risks anything before the NCAA Tournament, especially given his recent history of shoulder problems.
Colorado State (PK) vs. Utah State
- Tip-off: Friday, March 14 @ 11:59 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Friday, March 14
- Analysis: Based on recent form and the current lineup, we rate Colorado State as the best team in the MWC tourney.
- We already listed Colorado State at +350 pre-tournament to win the MWC as a futures pick, so if you already took that and do not want to double up, that’s fine. But we also wanted to list this game pick, as the rationale is the same: the Rams are undervalued.
- Colorado State’s quality is masked by some games with different lineup combinations and players out early in the season. With over 21 games in this current lineup, they are at a +14.2 average power rating, more than three points over their full-season average that used games with all lineups.
- Colorado State also knows they likely need to win the conference tournament, whereas Utah State should already be in the NCAA field.
Thursday, March 13
| DATE | PICK | OPPONENT | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 3/13 | San Jose State +15.5 | vs. New Mexico | 3:00 pm ET |
| Thu 3/13 | Texas A&M -6 | vs. Texas | 3:30 pm ET |
| Thu 3/13 | Missouri -3.5 | vs. Mississippi State | 7:00 pm ET |
| Thu 3/13 | Creighton -12.5 | vs. DePaul | 7:00 pm ET |
| Thu 3/13 | Kansas +2.5 | vs. Arizona | 9:30 pm ET |
San Jose State (+15.5) vs. New Mexico
- Tip-off: Thursday, March 13 @ 3 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Thursday, March 13
- Analysis: San Jose State is much better with key players in the starting lineup.
- When Josh Uduje, Donovan Yap, Sadaidriene Hall, and Robert Vaihola are all in the starting lineup, not only are they an all-name team candidate, but San Jose State is 16-3 ATS, vs. 5-6-1 with all other lineups.
- Their average power rating is +2.2 with those four starting, versus -6.0 for all others (and -1.2 for the entire season average), so we think we are getting about three points of value on the current lineup.
- The quartet has been together the last two games after several injury absences in February and has won the last two in dominant fashion. They jumped out to a 24-7 lead yesterday (as a one-point dog) and led the entire way to a 66-61 win.
Texas A&M (-6) vs. Texas
- Tip-off: Thursday, March 13 @ 3:30 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Thursday, March 13
- Analysis: It’s a Good matchup for Texas A&M and good recent form.
- This is one of our top model picks for today at 54%.
- Texas A&M leads the country in offensive rebound rate, and the teams that tend to give them the most matchup problems are very good on the defensive glass (Florida and Kentucky, for example).
- Texas ranks outside the top 100 in that category and has gone 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 ATS against teams in the Top 50 in offensive rebound rate. The average result in those games has been 9 points worse than their spread expectation, and they have lost over half of those games by double digits.
Missouri (-3.5) vs. Mississippi State
- Tip-off: Thursday, March 13 @ 7 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Thursday, March 13
- Analysis: This is a favorable matchup for Missouri, with a rest advantage.
- Mississippi State protects the paint and forces many outside shots. However, it has performed worse against teams that are comfortable shooting a high volume of three-point shots and doing it reasonably well.
- When playing teams that shoot more than 40% of their shots from beyond the arc and make at least 35% of them for the year, Mississippi State is 0-8 ATS and has failed to cover by an average of 17 points. That includes a 27-point home loss to this same Missouri team as a 6.5-point favorite.
Creighton (-12.5) vs. DePaul
- Tip-off: Thursday, March 13 @ 7 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Thursday, March 13
- Analysis: Creighton is providing value with the current lineup.
- Over the first 12 games, Creighton shuffled the starting lineup several times. Ryan Kalkbrenner and Steven Ashworth missed a game, and Pop Isaacs was lost for the year.
- Since Jasen Green became a starter in December, the team has used the same starting lineup for every game and has been noticeably better. The average Game Score is +17.3 (compared to a season average with all games of +14.9), and Creighton is 14-4-1 ATS with this lineup after a 4-7-1 ATS start.
Kansas (+2.5) vs. Arizona
- Tip-off: Thursday, March 13 @ 9:30 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Thursday, March 13
- Analysis: Arizona overvalued against better opponents.
- Arizona’s power rating is inflated by blowing out weaker mid-majors. They are 5-1 ATS against non-Power conference schools, compared to 11-14 ATS against them. Their average power rating against mid-majors is +31.8 versus +17.6 in all others. However, that extreme performance against those cupcakes is pulling their overall power rating to +19.8 and providing about two points of value against them.
- We have this one as close to a toss-up, especially in Kansas City, and you could play it either through the spread or moneyline.
Wednesday, March 12
| DATE | PICK | OPPONENT | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 3/12 | Kansas State +6 | vs. Baylor | 7:00 pm ET |
| Wed 3/12 | Georgia -3.5 | vs. Oklahoma | 9:30 pm ET |
| Wed 3/12 | Utah Tech +13 | Utah Valley | 9:00 pm ET |
| Wed 3/12 | Colorado +7 | West Virginia | 3:00 pm ET |
Kansas State (+6) vs. Baylor
- Tip-off: Wednesday, March 12 @ 7 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Wednesday, March 12
- Analysis: Baylor is sliding without their big man, and Kansas State has everyone back.
- Based on their current roster, we have a negative adjustment to Baylor’s power rating and a positive one on Kansas State, providing value on both teams.
- Since center Josh Ojianwuna was lost for the year, Baylor is 1-7 ATS (with that one win coming by a half-point against Houston). They have been about five points worse in the games without him.
- Baylor is an undersized team; without him, their tallest rotation player is 6’7″ Norchad Omier.
- Kansas State was without their big man, Coleman Hawkins, for three games at the end of February, and they struggled, but he has returned. When they have their current fully healthy starting 5 (with Dug McDaniel also as the starting PG since late December), their average power rating is +13.4, compared to +4.9 in all other games.
Georgia (-3.5) vs. Oklahoma
- Tip-off: Wednesday, March 12 @ 9:30 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Wednesday, March 12
- Analysis: Top model play and Georgia’s lineup adjustments have worked.
- This is the highest-rated model spread pick for today at 55.5%. Some of the model factors are related to Oklahoma’s extremely high shooting percentages in the last three games and Georgia’s advantage in rebounding.
- Both teams enter on 5-0 ATS streaks, but based on lineup changes, we think Georgia’s recent form improvement is more likely real and sustainable. Georgia altered their lineup rotation five games ago. Their least efficient offensive player, De’Shayne Montgomery, played 20 minutes in the loss to Missouri but hasn’t played since. Dylan James was moved into the starting lineup, giving them even more size and three starters at 6’8″ or taller. And Tyin Lawrence, who missed multiple games with injury, has returned and is coming off the bench as a scoring option.
Utah Tech (+13) vs. Utah Valley
- Tip-off: Wednesday, March 12 @ 9 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Wednesday, March 12
- Analysis: Top model play, and Utah Tech has been better lately.
- This is a highly rated model spread pick at 54%, rated as playable across all the models. One of the model factors is Utah Valley’s extreme home-court split. They are 10-0 ATS at home but 7-11 ATS in road/neutral situations, including 0-2 in true neutral court games.
- Utah Tech has had a rough season, losing 14 straight (6-8 ATS) before winning yesterday, but we see some encouraging lineup signs to provide value on the big underdog. Center Samuel Ariyibi, their only true rim protector, has been limited and in and out of games over the last six weeks with injuries but started and played 33 minutes, the second-most he has played all year. The team significantly shortened the rotation for the tournament, and it paid off with a win and cover yesterday.
Colorado (+7) vs. West Virginia
- Tip-off: Wednesday, March 12 @ 3 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Wednesday, March 12
- Analysis: West Virginia negative adjustment, Colorado late switch might be working
- West Virginia’s power rating is slightly inflated overall, as they were better in November/December before Tucker DeVries was lost for the season.
- Colorado struggled and had to do a lot of lineup juggling in Big 12 play, but it has closed 8-2 ATS and may have found something with the latest lineup iteration, used only for the last two outright wins and covers over TCU.
- West Virginia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 trips outside the Eastern Time Zone in league play (in the first game of the trip). It did win and cover at Utah, but that was presumably after staying in Utah for two extra days after getting blown out by BYU. It’s had a lot of travel recently, and a team that is not deep may not be motivated for a deep run, knowing it punched its ticket to the NCAA with Saturday’s win over UCF at home.
Sunday, March 9
| DATE | PICK | OPPONENT | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 3/9 | Hampton +8.5 | vs. UNC-Wilmington | 6:00 pm ET |
| Sun 3/9 | Monmouth +8 | vs. Charleston | 8:30 pm ET |
Monmouth (+8) vs. Charleston
- Tip-off: Sunday, March 9 @ 8:30 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Sunday, March 9
- Analysis: Monmouth’s recent form provides value.
- We had Monmouth as a team to watch based on recent form, with the current lineup entering the tournament. Then they went out and beat Hofstra as a 2.5-point dog yesterday.
- Monmouth has been 5.5 points better with this current lineup in 14 games and are 10-4 ATS, including five outright wins as dogs. That includes the first time this lineup was used in January, against this same Charleston team, where they won by 11 points as a 6.5-point dog.
Hampton (+8.5) vs. UNC-Wilmington
- Tip-off: Sunday, March 9 at 6 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Sunday, March 9
- Analysis: Hampton has been rolling with the current lineup.
- We will reiterate our (updated) commentary before the quarterfinal pick on Hampton. Hampton has had many different lineups and rotations, but over the last eight games, the current starters are 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS (they failed to cover the previous six before that lineup switch and were 11-10 ATS overall).
- The primary change has been on offense, where they turn the ball over less, rebound at a high rate, and shoot relatively better. They didn’t even shoot well (26% from deep) in yesterday’s win over Northeastern, but they still won outright as a dog because they dominated on the glass.
- UNC-Wilmington is the deserving favorite to win this tournament as the #2 seed and has also been in great form. But that form is correctly valued in the betting market. We think there is still value in this Hampton team playing substantially better based on the current rotation of players over what is now a month span.
Saturday, March 8
| DATE | PICK | OPPONENT | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3/8 | Indiana -2.5 | vs. Ohio State | 3:45 pm ET |
| Sat 3/8 | Hampton ML (-100) | vs. Northeastern | 6:00 pm ET |
| Sat 3/8 | SMU -3.5 | at Florida State | 4:00 pm ET |
Indiana (-2.5) vs. Ohio State
- Tip-off: Saturday, March 8 @ 3:45 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Saturday, March 8
- Analysis: Ohio State struggles against bigger teams.
- Ohio State’s power rating might be slightly inflated based on some cupcake blowouts. Still, the biggest issue is that they are one of the smallest Power 5 programs this year and have struggled against teams with size, especially in conference play.
- Ohio State is 0-4 ATS against teams in the top 50 in Ken Pomeroy’s effective height measure at both Center and Power Forward (like Indiana is) and 1-8 ATS against teams who are just in the Top 50 at Center in effective height.
- We also see some line value on the recent form for Indiana, in addition to the matchup factor.
Hampton (-100 ML) vs. Northeastern
- Tip-off: Saturday, March 8 at 6 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Saturday, March 8
- Analysis: We see this as a wrong-team-favored situation based on how the teams have played lately.
- This is a playable model pick for both spread (+1) and moneyline (-100), but since the spread is at a single point, we are taking the moneyline here.
- Hampton has had many different lineups and rotations, but over the last seven games, the current starters are 5-2 SU and 0-7 ATS (they failed to cover the previous six before that lineup switch and were 11-10 ATS overall).
- The primary change has been on offense, where they turn the ball over less, rebound at a high rate, and shoot relatively better.
- Northeastern started the year 7-2 ATS but have gone 7-14-1 ATS since, and our analysis shows they have been about six points worse over the last 22 games.
- We would put this line around Hampton -2, and we think there are about 3 points of value here.
SMU (-3.5) at Florida State
- Tip-off: Saturday, March 8 @ 4 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Saturday, March 8
- Analysis: Injury news going in opposite directions.
- SMU went through a recent slump, but that was mostly with point guard Boopie Miller, one of the best assist men in the country, missing games.
- With the lineup expected to start today, SMU has only had them together for eight games, but they are 4.5 points better than all other lineups.
- Florida State, meanwhile, is likely to still be without their best rebounder, post presence, and shot blocker in Malique Ewin, who injured his foot early in the North Carolina loss and has missed two in a row. Florida State has an average rating of +0.8 in the last three games, compared to +8.3 for all others.
Friday, March 7
| DATE | PICK | OPPONENT | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 3/7 | South Dakota +4 | vs. ND State | 7 pm ET |
| Fri 3/7 | Old Dominion +8.5 | vs. App State | 8:30 pm ET |
South Dakota (+4) vs. North Dakota State
- Tip-off: Friday, March 7 @ 7 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Friday, March 7
- Analysis: North Dakota State could be without two key starters.
- In our Summit League tournament notes, we wrote, “#4 North Dakota State is listed as a co-favorite with South Dakota State at some books, but we also have a slight downgrade on them based on recent form and uncertain injury news. Jacksen Moni, the leading scorer in Summit League play, missed the season finale with a wrist injury, and his status has not been clarified. Even with him, their form has been worse recently (-1.0 rating since the start of January vs. +3.2 before).”
- In the last day, there has been a report that Moni is not likely to play in the tournament. In four games without Moni this year, North Dakota State’s average Game Score is -12.5 compared to +3.1 in all other games. He is their best player and a first-team Summit League player this year.
- Starting point guard Brennan Watkins also missed the last game, and his status is questionable.
Old Dominion (+8.5) vs. Appalachian State
- Tip-off: Friday, March 7 at 8:30 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Friday, March 7
- Analysis: Appalachian State has poor recent form, and we think this should be a bit closer.
- This is our highest-rated model spread pick for Friday in CBB, and we endorse that position after reviewing the team lineup and performance details.
- Old Dominion has won three straight, including two in a row in the crazy Sun Belt format. Meanwhile, Appalachian State is 2-10 ATS in their last 12.
- Old Dominion’s recent form in tournament play, particularly its defensive play, provides a boost. Meanwhile, Appalachian State’s offense has struggled over the last five games, going 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 8.5 points.
Wednesday, March 5
| DATE | PICK | OPPONENT | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 3/5 | Maryland (+2.5) | at Michigan | 6:30 pm ET |
| Wed 3/5 | Butler (+4) | vs. Xavier | 7 pm ET |
Maryland (+2.5) at Michigan
- Tip-off: Wednesday, March 5 at 6:30 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Wednesday, March 5
- Analysis: The Wolverines are near the top of the Big 10 standings but still show a pretty strong split by opponent quality, going 7-1 ATS against the weakest opponents on their schedule compared to 6-15 ATS against everyone else. Michigan is one of the tallest teams in the country, starting with two 7-footers, so some of this might be their size, simply outclassing inferior opponents.
- Michigan is only 1-6 ATS against power conference schools in the Top 100 in block percentage on defense and 0-5 ATS against teams in the Top 100 in opponent two-point field goal percentage defense. Maryland has multiple post defenders led by Derik Queen and ranks 59th and 51st in those two categories.
- Michigan has been sliding. Their power rating since the start of January is +13.4, compared to +16.3 for the full season. They are 2-11 ATS over the last 13, and two of their three worst opponent-adjusted performances all year have come in the last two weeks.
- Maryland is the better team, and we have them as the slight favorite to win this on the road. They can match Michigan’s height and excel at turning teams over, while Michigan ranks dead last in Big Ten play at turnovers on offense.
Butler (+4) vs. Xavier
- Tip-off: Wednesday, March 5 at 7 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Wednesday, March 5
- Analysis: The Xavier Musketeers are on a five-game winning streak to get right on the bubble, and this is a big game. But we think Xavier’s optimism does not match where this number should be, and we see the potential for regression.
- Based on the full-season numbers as well as our adjusted numbers (where both teams get a slight upward adjustment), we would have this game at around 4.6 points on a neutral court. With home court for the underdog Butler team added, we would have the line at around 1.3 points, over 2 points of value, and we are catching this number above “one-score game” outcomes.
- Extreme outside shooting splits fuel Xavier’s recent performance. Over this five-game streak, Xavier opponents are shooting 58.4% from two but only 26.7% (31 of 116) from deep, an extreme split that shows their overall defense has not been great. Opponents are just missing high-leverage threes at a high rate.
Monday, March 3
| DATE | PICK | OPPONENT | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 3/3 | Florida-Gulf Coast (-4.5) | vs. Queens | 7 pm ET |
| Mon 3/3 | Houston (-9.5) | vs. Kansas | 9 pm ET |
| Mon 3/3 | Northwestern (+3.5) | vs. UCLA | 9 pm ET |
Houston (-9.5) vs. Kansas
- Tip-off: Monday, March 3 at 9 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Monday, March 3
- Analysis: This is our top-rated Ensemble Forecast and Decision Tree model pick for Monday at 54.6% to cover.
- Kansas has played relatively worse against better competition this year, especially lately. They have an average rating of +21.4 against their 10 easiest opponents and +16.4 against all others.
- Kansas is 4-7 ATS in true road situations this year and has shown extreme splits in home vs. road, with a +20.7 average Game Score at home and +13.9 on the road (the Game Score already accounts for venue and the average impact of home court, so theoretically, teams should average roughly the same Game Score).
- The teams that have been able to defeat or hang with Houston have typically been highly efficient offenses, much better on offense than this year’s Kansas team, especially at getting on the glass and getting to the free throw line.
Northwestern (+3.5) vs. UCLA
- Tip-off: Monday, March 3 at 9 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Monday, March 3
- Analysis: UCLA and other West Coast teams have underperformed when playing out of region in the Big Ten.
- UCLA fell to 2-5 ATS in games in the Central/Eastern time zones with Friday’s loss to Purdue and have been -4.7 worse than the spread on average. This year, the four former Pac-12 teams now playing in the Big Ten are a combined 11-17 ATS in the Central/Eastern time zones.
- Northwestern has faced many injuries, and Brooks Barnhizer and Jalen Leach’s losses impacted the team in the middle of conference play. However, they have rebounded recently, winning four of the last five and the last three by a combined 51 points, with three outright wins by double digits.
- The emergence of freshman K.J. Windham has been a big factor. Over that span, he has gone 11-for-24 from deep and has been one of the team’s leading scorers during the recent run. Before this five-game revival, he averaged only 7 minutes off the bench per game in the previous eight games.
Florida-Gulf Coast (-4.5) vs. Queens
- Tip-off: Monday, March 3 at 7 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Monday, March 3
- Analysis: We posted our complete Atlantic Sun tournament analysis below and called FGCU the sleeper here. But as a longer shot to win the whole thing, we prefer just to start out playing this through individual game lines.
- FGCU’s rating has been better (+0.5) in 18 games with the current lineup than in the other 13 games (-2.8), so we think we are getting a little value here.
- FGCU switched to Michael Duax as an undersized power forward instead of Rory Stewart right after the road loss at Queens when Queens shot really well. They have been better since, including beating Queens in the rematch at home and holding them to a season-low 47 points after giving up 92 in the first game.
Saturday, March 1
| DATE | PICK | OPPONENT | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3/1 | LSU (+10.5) | at Mississippi State | 3:30 pm ET |
| Sat 3/1 | Iowa State (-4.5) | vs. Arizona | 9 pm ET |
| Sat 3/1 | Kentucky (+5) | vs. Auburn | 1 pm ET |
Iowa State (-4.5) vs. Arizona
- Tip-off: Saturday, March 1 at 9 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Friday, Feb. 28
- Analysis: Iowa State’s Keshon Gilbert has missed the last two games, but indications are that it is more likely he plays on Saturday.
- Iowa State is 18-1 SU and 12-7 ATS in games with all starters playing and 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in games where one misses. Their average power rating is notably better at full strength.
- Arizona’s power rating is inflated by performance against cupcakes. They have a power rating of +17.9 against the 17 best opponents on their schedule, compared to +26.1 against the 11 weakest. We think we are getting a little discount against Arizona being a little overvalued because of some cupcake blowouts.
LSU (+10.5) at Mississippi State
- Tip-off: Saturday, March 1 at 3:30 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Friday, Feb. 28
- Analysis: LSU is a young team that has juggled its lineup this year and has been in better form lately.
- Freshmen Vyctorius Miller and Curtis Givens have been inserted as starters in the last two weeks, and LSU has gone 3-1 ATS, with outright wins over Oklahoma and South Carolina. The only non-cover was against Florida in a game they were leading outright and covering until a late run.
- Mississippi State has been wildly inconsistent (their last four non-covers have been by double digits), and they have struggled against teams that play more stylistically, like LSU.
- Mississippi State tends to force teams into many threes and does not give up many looks in the paint. They have struggled against elite offenses that shoot at least 42% of their shots from three and are good at making two-point attempts (over 53%). They are now 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in games where they face a team that meets those criteria, compared to 12-8 ATS against others. LSU attempts 43% of their shots from behind the arc and shoots 56% on attempts inside the arc.
Kentucky (+5) vs. Auburn
- Tip-off: Saturday, March 1 at 1:00 pm ET
- Pick Posted: Friday, Feb. 28
- Analysis: With its preferred starting five of Oweh/Butler/Robinson/Carr/Williams, Kentucky has an average Game Score rating of +21.4, about 5 points better than with other lineups and 2 points of value better than its full-season power rating.
- That lineup was used again for the first time since mid-January in this week’s win at Oklahoma, when Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson returned from injury. It’s also the lineup that beat Duke in November and Florida in early January.