BetIQ Daily: College Basketball Spread and Over/Under Picks, Including Wisconsin vs. Iowa

Picks for Thursday include the Wisconsin vs. Iowa and Illinois vs. Maryland games, plus two former national champs facing off.

January 6, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Johnny Davis and Wisconsin will try to rebound in the Big Ten tournament (Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)

Thursday, January 6 (#32)

BetIQ Daily is ready to jump back into more college basketball action, and we’ll do that today with no more NFL Thursday night games or bowl games.

We have a pretty full basketball schedule highlighted by some Big Ten and Pac-12 matchups, and a mid-major affair that is being played in Salt Lake City.

3 Thursday College Basketball Picks

1) Wisconsin -3 (vs. Iowa)– NCAAB Spread Pick

  • Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET on FS1
  • This one is not a playable pick according to our betting models, though there is a lean on Wisconsin to cover.
  • It is a play based on our “With or Without You” analysis of team performance based on player availability, and potential value on Wisconsin.
  • Wisconsin vs. Iowa features two of the best sophomores in the nation, as Johnny Davis of Wisconsin and Keegan Murray of Iowa face off.
  • Davis has missed two games this year, the loss to Providence and a three-point home win over Nicholls State.
  • Davis is coming off a career-high 37 points in road win at Purdue on Monday, and Wisconsin’s game scores are +15.2 with Davis and +0.4 without.
  • Line has already moved a point in Wisconsin’s favor from the start of writing this to publication.

2) Sacred Heart -3.5 (at Central Connecticut) – NCAAB Spread Pick

  • Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Playable spread pick according to the Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Sacred Heart PG Aaron Clarke has missed four games this year, including three against Division I competition.
  • Two of Sacred Heart’s worst three game scores came in games that Clarke missed; the Pioneers are a little better than the raw ratings with him.
  • Central Connecticut leading scorer Nigel Scantlebury, along with three other starters/rotation players, have not played in any of the three games since the first semester ended.
  • There are no reported injuries and no public news on the players, but given that it is a first-year coach and Scantlebury was in the transfer portal after last season before returning to Central Connecticut, there may be value in playing against a Blue Devils team that could be without several players from earlier in season.

3) Illinois/Maryland Under 140.5 Points  – NCAAB Over/Under Pick

  • Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2
  • One of 12 Thursday college basketball games with an over/under play rated above 54 percent cover odds by our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • In five other games Illinois has played against most similar opponents (rated between 50 and 100 in power rating, outside the top 50 in offensive efficiency), the opponents have averaged 57.0 points.
  • Line has dropped 2.5 points since opening at 143.0.

Two Former National Champs Throw Together A Game (And Other Thursday Matchups of Note)

There are two games today between former national champions. One of them, Indiana vs. Ohio State, is a traditional Big Ten matchup. The other came together just a few days ago.

Not too many people remember that San Francisco (in the Bill Russell years) and Loyola-Chicago (1963) won national titles. But these two resurgent programs are getting together on a Thursday afternoon in a junior college gym in Salt Lake City, Utah.

  • Loyola-Chicago is a slight favorite at -2.5 (2 p.m. ET tipoff).
  • San Francisco has yet to play a WCC game because of COVID-19 pauses with other opponents, and it just lost its Thursday matchup with Gonzaga.
  • Ramblers haven’t played a game since December 10th because of COVID-19 issues for both them and their opponents.
  • According to our Bracketology projections, Loyola-Chicago has a 56 percent chance of a NCAA tournament bid, and San Francisco is just out of the projected field at 40 percent.
  • The winner of this game will get a key boost with a quality win, which could make a difference on Selection Sunday.

Here are some other matchups to watch on Thursday, in addition to the highlighted picks:

  • Indiana (-3.5) vs. Ohio State, 7 p.m. ET on FS1
  • North Texas (-2) vs. UAB, 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network
  • Colorado (-1.5) vs. Washington State, 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2
  • Cincinnati (-2.5) vs. SMU, 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • USC (-5.5) at California, 11 p.m. ET on FS1

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

  • NFL point spread picks: 47-33-2 (59%, +9.7 units)
  • College football over/under picks: 179-146-3 (55%, +16.7 units)
  • NBA spread picks: 13-9 (59%, +2.8 units)
  • NBA moneyline picks: 72-63 (+8.6 units)

To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.

We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.

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