BetIQ Daily: College Football Conference Championship Game Picks
Picks for Friday and Saturday include Pac-12 and ACC conference championship games, a Purdue-Iowa over/under, and NFL Week 13 passing projections.
December 3, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Utah and Oregon face off again in the Pac-12 title game (Boyd Ivey/Icon Sportswire)
Friday, December 3 (#11)
Welcome to BetIQ Daily, where we highlight a few sports betting picks from our premium data-driven models and analysis.
This is just a small sample of picks available over the next few days, which include college basketball, NBA, college football conference championship game picks, and Week 13 NFL picks.
See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.
3 Picks for Friday & Saturday
1) Utah -2.5 (vs. Oregon) — NCAAF Spread Pick
- Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET in Las Vegas, NV.
- One of four playable spread picks in conference championship games, according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
- Utah beat Oregon 38-7 at home in the regular season, in a game where neither side turned ball over.
- The teams are trending in opposite directions; Oregon started the year with an early win over Ohio State, while Utah started 1-2.
- In Pac-12 play, Utah is +17.0 in point differential, while Oregon is +5.6.
2) Pittsburgh/Wake Forest Under 71 – NCAAF Over/Under Pick
- Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET in Charlotte, NC
- This is our highest-rated over/under play on Saturday in college football.
- Decision Tree and Similar Games models both also see value on the under.
- Since 2010, neutral-site championship games with an O/U of 65 or more have gone under seven of 10 times.
3) Purdue/Iowa Under 158.5 – NCAAB Over/Under Pick
- Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET.
- One of 11 playable college basketball totals on Friday, according to our models.
- Both teams rank in the top three in offensive efficiency so far, driving the higher total.
- This is the first Big Ten conference matchup for both teams after 7-0 nonconference starts.
- Iowa has failed to score more than 70 points in its last five matchups against Purdue.
NFL Week 13 Passing Props
Our passing-yards projection model is largely based on:
- The spread and over/under lines for the game in question
- Situation-adjusted pass-run rates for the team and opponent in question
Here is the Week 13 data, sorted by highest to lowest pass projection. Passing yard over/unders are listed where available and will be updated Friday afternoon.
| Quarterback | Opponent | BetIQ Projection | Over/Under | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady | ATL | 305.7 | 303.5 | +2.2 |
| Stafford | JAC | 300.2 | 293.5 | +7.7 |
| Mahomes | DEN | 297.6 | 288.5 | +9.1 |
| Carr | WAS | 289.3 | 266.5 | +22.8 |
| Herbert | CIN | 287.8 | 292.5 | -4.7 |
| Ryan | TB | 263.8 | 252.5 | +11.3 |
| Prescott | NO | 257.6 | 284.5 | -26.9 |
| Wentz | HOU | 257.7 | 247.5 | +10.2 |
| Burrow | LAC | 255.5 | 248.5 | +7.0 |
| Heinicke | LV | 256.8 | 247.5 | +9.3 |
| Roethlisberger | BAL | 252.3 | 253.5 | -1.2 |
| Cousins | DET | 255.1 | 275.5 | -20.4 |
| Murray | CHI | 250.3 | ||
| Allen | NE | 246.2 | 239.5 | +6.7 |
| Tagovailoa | NYG | 244.6 | 234.5 | +10.1 |
| Jackson | PIT | 238.4 | 231.5 | +6.9 |
| Wilson, R | SF | 236.3 | 229.5 | +6.8 |
| Minshew | NYJ | 234.5 | ||
| Garoppolo | SEA | 233.2 | 225.5 | +7.7 |
| Bridgewater | KC | 223.9 | 247.5 | -23.6 |
| Wilson, Z | PHI | 222.8 | ||
| Jones, M | BUF | 220.4 | 210.5 | +9.9 |
| Dalton | ARI | 218.5 | 216.5 | +2.0 |
| Lawrence | LAR | 217.7 | 216.5 | +1.2 |
| Goff | MIN | 216.7 | 235.5 | -18.8 |
| Glennon | MIA | 213.5 | 210.5 | +3.0 |
| Hill | DAL | 211.8 | 210.5 | +1.3 |
| Taylor | IND | 211.5 | 211.5 | 0.0 |
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 36-25-1 (59%, +7.8 units)
- College football over/under picks: 168-141-3 (54%, +11.7 units)
- College basketball over/under picks: 260-226-6 (53%, +10.4 units)
- NBA spread picks: 13-6 (68%, +5.8 units)
To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.
We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.
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