College Football Rankings and Predictions 2025
Can Ohio State repeat in 2025? Our rankings and predictions provide conference overviews and rankings of all 136 FBS teams.
by Jason Lisk - Aug 20, 2025
Ohio State and Notre Dame are back among our projected title contenders in 2025 (Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire)
The first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff already gave us a jolt to the system. Ohio State would not have won the national title in other recent years because they would not have been part of a four-team playoff, but they got a second chance at redemption and took it. The Buckeyes are one of the top contenders again in 2025, along with familiar names like Georgia, Texas, Penn State, Alabama, and Notre Dame.
In this massive college football preview post, we’ve compiled all of our preseason rankings and predictions for the 2025 college football season in one place. We’ll review our rankings, the conference outlooks, and playoff predictions.
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Preseason Predictions Menu
You can use the links below to jump to any section you want to read:
- College Football Rankings Highlights
- Conference Champion Odds
- CFB Playoff Predictions
- FBS Conference Breakdowns
- Full Preseason Rankings (All Teams)
- How We Make Preseason Predictions
2025 College Football Preseason Top 25
Jump to Rankings for All 136 FBS Teams
The table below features our 25 highest-ranked preseason teams (e.g., Georgia at No. 1) and their associated preseason predictive ratings (e.g., 28.6 for Georgia).
The final five columns show the relative contribution of specific predictive factors and our “market adjustment” to our final preseason rating for each team. We’ll explain those factors below.
| RANK | TEAM | RATING | LAST YEAR | PROGRAM | RETURN | LUCK | MARKET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 28.6 | 15.4 | 7.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 5.9 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 28.4 | 22.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 | -2.5 | 4.8 |
| 3 | Penn State | 28.2 | 15.9 | 3.9 | 2.5 | -1.4 | 7.3 |
| 4 | Texas | 27.9 | 18.8 | 3.3 | -2.2 | -1.9 | 9.9 |
| 5 | Alabama | 27.6 | 16.6 | 5.7 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 1.6 |
| 6 | Clemson | 24.9 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 9.8 | -1.5 | 2.8 |
| 7 | Notre Dame | 23.9 | 19.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | -1.6 | 0.7 |
| 8 | Louisiana State | 23.9 | 10.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 | -0.5 | 8.3 |
| 9 | Oregon | 23.7 | 15.1 | 2.7 | -4.8 | 0.7 | 10.0 |
| 10 | Texas A&M | 19.7 | 10.3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 3.1 |
| 11 | Michigan | 19.6 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 3.9 | -0.4 | 2.2 |
| 12 | Florida | 19.6 | 11.0 | 1.6 | 4.0 | -1.7 | 4.7 |
| 13 | Oklahoma | 18.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 3.6 |
| 14 | Mississippi | 18.4 | 18.6 | 2.9 | -6.7 | -2.1 | 5.7 |
| 15 | Auburn | 17.8 | 6.6 | 1.9 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 9.3 |
| 16 | Tennessee | 17.6 | 15.8 | 3.9 | 0.6 | -1.6 | -1.2 |
| 17 | South Carolina | 17.3 | 13.5 | 1.0 | 3.7 | -1.2 | 0.3 |
| 18 | Miami | 16.4 | 13.7 | 0.8 | -6.6 | -0.1 | 8.6 |
| 19 | Kansas State | 15.9 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 0.1 | -1.9 |
| 20 | USC | 15.4 | 10.6 | 1.4 | -2.0 | 0.5 | 4.9 |
| 21 | SMU | 15.1 | 11.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 1.2 |
| 22 | Arizona State | 14.9 | 11.3 | 0.2 | 8.0 | -3.3 | -1.3 |
| 23 | Iowa | 14.8 | 9.2 | 1.8 | 4.7 | -1.8 | 0.8 |
| 24 | Louisville | 14.3 | 11.9 | 2.0 | -2.0 | -0.3 | 2.6 |
| 25 | Indiana | 13.9 | 17.9 | -1.1 | -1.8 | -3.2 | 2.1 |
Preseason Ratings Predictive Factors
Over the years, we’ve conducted extensive research to identify and value team-level stats highly correlated with college football success.
We’ve also researched to identify information that seems like it should help determine a team’s future performance but doesn’t hold up to rigorous historical testing.
Here’s a quick explanation of the factors we currently use in our preseason ratings:
- LAST YEAR: How good a team was last year
- PROGRAM: How good a team has been in recent history (excluding last year)
- RETURN: Measure of returning player performance in several key stat areas relative to teams of this general quality
- LUCK: How likely a team is to improve in higher-variance metrics (e.g., turnovers)
- MARKET: Adjustment if our initial projection is far off the betting market or the Associated Press poll
You can also find more in our preseason rankings explanation post.
College Football Preseason Rankings Highlights
- The SEC and Big Ten Dominate. Our Top 20 consists of Notre Dame, one Big 12 team, two ACC teams, and then five teams from the Big Ten and 11 from the SEC. Expand to the Top 25 and you bring in two more ACC teams and another Big 12 team.
- Look at ratings, not rankings. People tend to fixate on rankings, but the ratings are more important. In our ratings, Oregon at No. 9 is one example, as they are closer to No. 5 Alabama than to No. 10 Texas A&M in our power ratings.
- No teams outside the Power Four are in the Top 25. Expansion has consolidated the football powers, and there are no other schools outside the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, or Notre Dame in our Top 25. You have to go down to No. 35 Boise State to get the highest-ranked team outside that group.
Conference Champion Odds
Here are the most likely teams to win each FBS conference according to our preseason predictions, along with each team’s conference-champion odds:
| CONFERENCE | FAVORITE | ODDS TO WIN |
|---|---|---|
| ACC | Clemson | 40% |
| Big 12 | Kansas State | 19% |
| Big Ten | Ohio St | 29% |
| SEC | Georgia | 22% |
| AAC | Navy | 27% |
| C-USA | Liberty | 43% |
| MAC | Toledo | 28% |
| MWC | Boise St | 38% |
| Sun Belt | James Madison | 25% |
Liberty faltered last year as the biggest favorite but is back again. Georgia (who won the SEC), Ohio State (who did not win Big Ten but won the national title), and Boise State (won the Mountain West) are the only other teams to appear as preseason favorites in each of the last two years.
This year, these nine favorites add up to only 2.7 expected champions between them, so really, even though these teams are listed, the odds are that only two to three of them actually win the conference title. There’s a lot of season left to play out so don’t get discouraged if your school isn’t atop the conference projections to start.
In-Season Updates
Once the 2025 college football season starts, our college football predictions page will update daily with our season projections and conference title odds.
College Football Playoff Predictions 2025
We enter the second year of the College Football Playoff with 12 teams, and have another format change. After a year where some of the conference winners who got byes were substantial underdogs and the bracket was imbalanced (with No. 1 Oregon drawing No. 8 Ohio State because of seeding rules), the format has shifted again.
Here are the rules for the playoffs in 2025:
- The five highest-ranked conference champions will advance to the playoff format, but conference champions will no longer receive seeding preference into the byes.
- The other seven teams are at-larges that go to the highest-ranked teams in the Selection Committee rankings, and there is no limit on the number of teams from any conference.
- The committee will rank teams 1 through 12 and those will be the seeds.
- The four highest-ranked teams will be seeded 1 to 4 and get byes into the quarterfinals.
- The bracket will not be re-seeded after the first round or the quarterfinals.
Here are our projected odds to make the playoffs, as well as the median projected CFP ranking in the final committee rankings.
Power Conference Schools (all with 3% or more odds)
| Team | CFP Odds | Median CFP Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | 76.3% | 7.5 |
| Georgia | 75.6% | 6.9 |
| Penn State | 75.4% | 8.1 |
| Texas | 71.5% | 6.8 |
| Alabama | 69.4% | 8.6 |
| Notre Dame | 66.9% | 10.5 |
| Clemson | 63.9% | 7.6 |
| Oregon | 57.4% | 8.5 |
| Louisiana State | 47.6% | 11.7 |
| Michigan | 34.7% | 15.6 |
| Mississippi | 26.7% | 18.8 |
| Texas A&M | 26.7% | 17.2 |
| Kansas State | 26.0% | 18.6 |
| Florida | 25.6% | 20.6 |
| Miami | 24.5% | 19.2 |
| Tennessee | 22.7% | 19.7 |
| Auburn | 21.6% | 18.6 |
| Oklahoma | 21.6% | 21.2 |
| Arizona State | 20.8% | 20.9 |
| South Carolina | 18.8% | 22.0 |
| SMU | 18.5% | 20.6 |
| Baylor | 17.4% | 22.8 |
| USC | 17.4% | 20.6 |
| Utah | 17.1% | 23.8 |
| Iowa | 15.7% | 24.0 |
| Louisville | 14.5% | 21.3 |
| Texas Tech | 13.9% | 23.3 |
| Nebraska | 10.3% | 22.9 |
| Iowa State | 8.6% | 26.0 |
| TCU | 8.6% | 26.0 |
| Indiana | 8.2% | 24.1 |
| Georgia Tech | 7.9% | 26.0 |
| Missouri | 6.8% | 26.0 |
| Illinois | 6.3% | 26.0 |
| Kansas | 5.4% | 26.0 |
| Washington | 4.6% | 26.0 |
| BYU | 4.1% | 26.0 |
| Cincinnati | 3.8% | 26.0 |
Group of Five Conference Schools (Top 10 by odds)
| Team | CFP Odds | Median CFP Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 33.0% | 25.1 |
| Navy | 10.4% | 26.0 |
| James Madison | 9.0% | 26.0 |
| Tulane | 8.9% | 26.0 |
| Liberty | 5.0% | 26.0 |
| UTSA | 3.9% | 26.0 |
| UNLV | 3.7% | 26.0 |
| Memphis | 2.8% | 26.0 |
| Army | 2.7% | 26.0 |
| Toledo | 2.4% | 26.0 |
Here are our projected playoff teams by conference:
- SEC: 4.4 teams
- Big Ten: 3.1 teams
- ACC: 1.5 teams
- Big 12: 1.3 teams
- Group of Five: 1.0 teams
- Independents: 0.7 teams
And here are our best guesses at the playoff matchups based on our projections:
First Round, December 19-20
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Boise State
No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 11 Kansas State
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Michigan
No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 LSU
Quarterfinals, December 31-January 1
Sugar: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Oregon/No. 9 LSU
Rose: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame/No. 10 Michigan
Cotton: No. 3 Texas vs. No. 6 Clemson/No. 11 Kansas State
Orange: No. 4 Penn State vs. No. 5 Alabama/No. 12 Boise State
Semifinals, January 8-9
Peach: Sugar Bowl winner vs. Orange Bowl winner
Fiesta: Rose Bowl winner vs. Cotton Bowl winner
Championship Game, January 19th
Miami: Peach Bowl winner vs. Fiesta Bowl winner
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FBS Conference Breakdowns
Below, you will find all nine FBS conferences and FBS independents (we are grouping the two current Pac-12 teams, Oregon State and Washington State, here).
Each conference table shows the team’s power rating and rank among all FBS teams. The full table for all 136 teams is at the bottom of this article.
It then shows the projected W-L record in regular-season games (no conference championship games included here) for all games, as well as conference-only games.
Finally, it shows our projected odds of winning the conference title, which does account for the chances of playing in and winning the conference title games.
Quick Links
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | Conf. USA | MAC | MWC | Sun Belt | Independents
ACC Football Preseason Predictions 2025
| Team | Rating | Rank | Overall W | Overall L | Conf W | Conf L | Win Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson | 24.9 | 6 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 40.4% |
| Miami | 16.4 | 18 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 14.0% |
| S Methodist | 15.1 | 21 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 13.7% |
| GA Tech | 11.1 | 32 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 11.4% |
| Louisville | 14.3 | 24 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 8.8% |
| Florida St | 7.1 | 49 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 7.4% |
| Duke | 5.4 | 50 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.1% |
| Pittsburgh | 6.5 | 47 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.5% |
| N Carolina | 1.7 | 62 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.9% |
| VA Tech | 4.5 | 52 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 1.6% |
| NC State | 3.7 | 54 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 1.8% |
| Virginia | -1.1 | 67 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.2% |
| Boston Col | 4.7 | 51 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1.2% |
| Syracuse | 3.4 | 56 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 1.6% |
| California | -2.8 | 74 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 0.9% |
| Stanford | -5.9 | 85 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 0.3% |
| Wake Forest | -5.9 | 84 | 3.5 | 8.5 | 2.1 | 5.9 | 0.2% |
SMU almost won the ACC in its first season in the league last year, coming up just short against Clemson in the title game. They were still able to make it into the College Football Playoff, giving the conference two representatives a year ago. This year, the top three is largely the same, with Louisville and Georgia Tech as the most likely to emerge to challenge them.
Big 12 Football Preseason Predictions 2025
| Team | Rating | Rank | Overall W | Overall L | Conf W | Conf L | Win Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas St | 15.9 | 19 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 18.7% |
| Arizona St | 14.9 | 22 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 14.4% |
| Baylor | 13.3 | 28 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 11.9% |
| Texas Tech | 13.6 | 26 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 10.5% |
| Utah | 13.3 | 30 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 10.5% |
| Iowa St | 10.6 | 33 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 7.0% |
| TX Christian | 10.2 | 34 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 5.8% |
| Kansas | 8.1 | 40 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 5.1% |
| BYU | 7.3 | 41 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.9% |
| Cincinnati | 6.7 | 44 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.7% |
| Houston | 4.1 | 53 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2.3% |
| Colorado | 3.6 | 55 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 1.6% |
| Oklahoma St | 2.0 | 64 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 1.3% |
| UCF | 1.4 | 62 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 0.9% |
| W Virginia | 1.8 | 61 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 1.3% |
| Arizona | 1.2 | 63 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 1.2% |
It was a wild end to last year’s Big 12 race, and it is equally wide open entering 2025. We project five teams with between a 10% and 20% chance to win the conference, with Kansas State leading the way.
Big Ten Football Preseason Predictions 2025
| Team | Rating | Rank | Overall W | Overall L | Conf W | Conf L | Win Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St | 28.4 | 2 | 9.9 | 2.1 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 29.1% |
| Penn St | 28.2 | 3 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 25.7% |
| Oregon | 23.7 | 8 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 13.9% |
| Michigan | 19.6 | 11 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 10.3% |
| USC | 15.4 | 20 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 4.3% |
| Illinois | 12.9 | 29 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 3.1% |
| Indiana | 13.9 | 25 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.9% |
| Nebraska | 13.4 | 27 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.6% |
| Iowa | 14.8 | 23 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.0% |
| Minnesota | 10.0 | 36 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 1.3% |
| Washington | 9.6 | 37 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 1.4% |
| UCLA | 7.5 | 38 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 0.5% |
| Rutgers | 7.0 | 46 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 0.4% |
| Wisconsin | 8.1 | 42 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 0.7% |
| Michigan St | 7.8 | 43 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 0.7% |
| Northwestern | -1.1 | 68 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 6.9 | 0.1% |
| Maryland | -2.8 | 73 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 7.1 | 0.1% |
| Purdue | -7.4 | 91 | 3.1 | 8.9 | 1.3 | 7.7 | 0.0% |
Oregon won the Big Ten last year in their first year in the league, and we see the top of the conference mostly shaping up the same way, with national champion Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon as the top contenders to win the conference title in 2025.
The question will be whether anyone else can emerge. Michigan faltered last year, in Sherrone Moore’s first year replacing Jim Harbaugh at head coach. Indiana stepped into that void with a surprise appearance in the College Football Playoff. We see that Indiana team, USC, Illinois, and Nebraska as the most likely candidates this year, if Michigan struggles again.
SEC Football Preseason Predictions 2025
| Team | Rating | Rank | Overall W | Overall L | Conf W | Conf L | Win Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 27.9 | 4 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 19.6% |
| Georgia | 28.6 | 1 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 21.5% |
| Alabama | 27.6 | 5 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 17.7% |
| LSU | 23.9 | 9 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 9.9% |
| Texas A&M | 19.7 | 10 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 5.2% |
| Tennessee | 17.6 | 16 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.2% |
| Mississippi | 18.4 | 14 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.1% |
| Auburn | 17.8 | 15 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 4.2% |
| Florida | 19.6 | 12 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.6% |
| S Carolina | 17.3 | 17 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.9% |
| Oklahoma | 18.9 | 13 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 3.9% |
| Missouri | 12.0 | 31 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1.4% |
| Arkansas | 9.4 | 39 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 0.4% |
| Vanderbilt | 6.7 | 45 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 5.9 | 0.2% |
| Kentucky | 6.1 | 48 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 6.1 | 0.2% |
| Miss State | 2.5 | 59 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 1.4 | 6.6 | 0.1% |
Eleven of the 16 teams in the SEC are in our Top 20 to start the year. Georgia and Texas lead the way, followed by Alabama, looking to get back into the College Football Playoffs after last year’s near-miss.
The only question is which teams can get the key wins and avoid the bad losses that ended up costing Alabama last year, as the conference should be putting four to five teams in the playoff based on the projected strength of schedule.
AAC Football Preseason Predictions 2025
| Team | Rating | Rank | Overall W | Overall L | Conf W | Conf L | Win Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navy | 2.5 | 58 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 26.9% |
| Tulane | 3.0 | 57 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 22.2% |
| Army | -1.4 | 70 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 12.9% |
| UTSA | -1.0 | 66 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 12.1% |
| S Florida | -3.5 | 76 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 8.3% |
| Memphis | -3.2 | 75 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 8.6% |
| E Carolina | -7.6 | 92 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.8% |
| North Texas | -9.1 | 95 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.9% |
| Rice | -15.7 | 117 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 0.5% |
| UAB | -15.4 | 115 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 0.8% |
| Fla Atlantic | -16.3 | 120 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 0.4% |
| Temple | -17.7 | 126 | 3.6 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 0.3% |
| Tulsa | -18.8 | 128 | 3.6 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 5.9 | 0.3% |
| Charlotte | -19.7 | 130 | 3.1 | 8.9 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.1% |
Army won the conference last year, and now Navy is the favorite, just ahead of Tulane. The American Conference winner should be in contention to claim a playoff spot as one of the best five conference champions. Last year, Army was the second-best Group of Five team, and the only other one that was in the final Top 25 behind Boise State.
Outside of Tulane and Navy, the rest of the conference gets thin pretty quickly. There are more teams ranked outside our initial Top 120 than inside our Top 60, in a conference that has traditionally produced multiple teams that can challenge.
C-USA Football Preseason Predictions 2025
| Team | Rating | Rank | Overall W | Overall L | Conf W | Conf L | Win Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | -1.7 | 72 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 42.5% |
| W Kentucky | -9.8 | 101 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 14.6% |
| LA Tech | -13.3 | 106 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 8.5% |
| Sam Hous St | -14.1 | 111 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 7.4% |
| Jksnville St | -13.0 | 105 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 8.6% |
| Middle Tenn | -16.6 | 124 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.9% |
| Florida Intl | -15.6 | 116 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 5.3% |
| Delaware | -15.3 | 115 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 0.0% |
| TX El Paso | -17.4 | 125 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.2% |
| Missouri St | -17.8 | 127 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 0.0% |
| N Mex State | -19.5 | 129 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 2.5% |
| Kennesaw St | -21.3 | 133 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 1.6% |
Liberty had visions of challenging for the Group of Five berth in the College Football Playoff, but faltered to three conference losses. Meanwhile, it was Jacksonville State that surged to a surprising conference title. This year, Liberty is again the favorite, and hopes to bounce back.
Meanwhile, the conference has two new FBS members, Missouri State and Delaware. Those two teams are ineligible to win the conference in their first year in the league. Kennesaw State, meanwhile, is now eligible, though we see that as a long shot, projecting them last in the new-look Conference USA.
MAC Football Preseason Predictions 2025
| Team | Rating | Rank | Overall W | Overall L | Conf W | Conf L | Win Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | -3.5 | 77 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 27.8% |
| Ohio | -4.8 | 79 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 23.2% |
| Buffalo | -8.3 | 94 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 15.4% |
| Miami (OH) | -9.4 | 96 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 10.6% |
| Central Mich | -14.5 | 113 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 5.6% |
| Bowling Grn | -14.1 | 110 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 5.5% |
| N Illinois | -15.3 | 113 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.1% |
| W Michigan | -16.3 | 121 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 3.4% |
| E Michigan | -16.6 | 123 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 2.8% |
| Akron | -20.8 | 132 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 0.0% |
| UMass | -23.2 | 135 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 0.8% |
| Ball St | -22.4 | 134 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 0.6% |
| Kent St | -29.4 | 136 | 2.3 | 9.7 | 1.8 | 6.2 | 0.1% |
UMass is rejoining the MAC, and with that, the conference has four of our five lowest-rated FBS teams entering the season. Kent State, though, is fully clear of all of them, more than six points behind No. 135 UMass. The Golden Flashes went 0-12 last year and have not won a game against an FBS opponent in the last two years.
At the other end of the spectrum, Toledo and last year’s champ, Ohio, are the favorites in 2025.
Mountain West Football Preseason Predictions 2025
| Team | Rating | Rank | Overall W | Overall L | Conf W | Conf L | Win Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise St | 10.1 | 35 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 37.6% |
| UNLV | -1.5 | 71 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 15.3% |
| San Jose St | -6.9 | 90 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 13.9% |
| Fresno St | -5.8 | 86 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 9.2% |
| Air Force | -5.6 | 83 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 7.7% |
| Colorado St | -6.6 | 88 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 5.2% |
| Hawaii | -9.8 | 99 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.8% |
| Wyoming | -11.1 | 102 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.7% |
| San Diego St | -13.4 | 108 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 2.7% |
| Nevada | -16.4 | 122 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 2.4% |
| Utah St | -16.0 | 119 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 0.2% |
| New Mexico | -20.7 | 131 | 3.3 | 8.7 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.3% |
Boise State represented the Group of Five in last year’s playoffs, and look like a favorite to do so again. No other Mountain West team is inside our Top 70 to start the year.
Sun Belt Football Preseason Predictions 2025
| East | Rating | Rank | Overall W | Overall L | Conf W | Conf L | Win Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Mad | 0.6 | 65 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 24.8% |
| GA Southern | -5.2 | 81 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 9.9% |
| Old Dominion | -6.7 | 89 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 7.4% |
| App State | -9.8 | 100 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.3% |
| Coastal Car | -9.6 | 98 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.7% |
| Marshall | -12.2 | 103 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 2.5% |
| Georgia St | -13.6 | 109 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 1.9% |
| West | Rating | Rank | Overall W | Overall L | Conf W | Conf L | Win Conf |
| S Alabama | -5.6 | 82 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 11.2% |
| Louisiana | -4.5 | 78 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 11.5% |
| Texas St | -6.0 | 87 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 9.5% |
| Troy | -9.6 | 97 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.5% |
| Arkansas St | -12.7 | 104 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 2.9% |
| UL Monroe | -13.9 | 106 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 2.2% |
| S Mississippi | -14.2 | 112 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1.7% |
The Sun Belt is perhaps the most balanced conference entering 2025. James Madison is the only team projected for more than 5.0 wins in conference play, and every team is projected for between 4.0 and 8.0 overall wins. There is a large group of teams that appear roughly similar, and we could easily see a surprise emerge.
James Madison is the most likely Sun Belt team to be able to surge to a College Football Playoff spot with a strong year.
Independent FBS and Pac-12 Football Preseason Predictions 2025
| Team | Rating | Rank | Overall W | Overall L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 23.9 | 7 | 9.9 | 2.1 |
| Connecticut | -4.8 | 80 | 7.4 | 4.6 |
| Oregon St | -1.2 | 69 | 7.1 | 4.9 |
| Wash State | -8.1 | 93 | 5.0 | 7.0 |
Next year, Oregon State and Washington State will be joined by several current Mountain West teams in a new-look Pac-12, but they will basically operate as independents for a second consecutive year.
Notre Dame should again be in the national championship mix, while Connecticut will try to follow up their unexpected bowl season with another winning record.
2025 Preseason Rankings (All Teams)
Here are our power ratings and rankings for all 136 FBS teams for the 2025 season.
| RANK | TEAM | RATING | LAST YEAR | PROGRAM | RETURN | LUCK | MARKET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 28.6 | 15.4 | 7.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 5.9 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 28.4 | 22.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 | -2.5 | 4.8 |
| 3 | Penn State | 28.2 | 15.9 | 3.9 | 2.5 | -1.4 | 7.3 |
| 4 | Texas | 27.9 | 18.8 | 3.3 | -2.2 | -1.9 | 9.9 |
| 5 | Alabama | 27.6 | 16.6 | 5.7 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 1.6 |
| 6 | Clemson | 24.9 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 9.8 | -1.5 | 2.8 |
| 7 | Notre Dame | 23.9 | 19.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | -1.6 | 0.7 |
| 8 | Louisiana State | 23.9 | 10.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 | -0.5 | 8.3 |
| 9 | Oregon | 23.7 | 15.1 | 2.7 | -4.8 | 0.7 | 10.0 |
| 10 | Texas A&M | 19.7 | 10.3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 3.1 |
| 11 | Michigan | 19.6 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 3.9 | -0.4 | 2.2 |
| 12 | Florida | 19.6 | 11.0 | 1.6 | 4.0 | -1.7 | 4.7 |
| 13 | Oklahoma | 18.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 3.6 |
| 14 | Mississippi | 18.4 | 18.6 | 2.9 | -6.7 | -2.1 | 5.7 |
| 15 | Auburn | 17.8 | 6.6 | 1.9 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 9.3 |
| 16 | Tennessee | 17.6 | 15.8 | 3.9 | 0.6 | -1.6 | -1.2 |
| 17 | South Carolina | 17.3 | 13.5 | 1.0 | 3.7 | -1.2 | 0.3 |
| 18 | Miami | 16.4 | 13.7 | 0.8 | -6.6 | -0.1 | 8.6 |
| 19 | Kansas State | 15.9 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 0.1 | -1.9 |
| 20 | USC | 15.4 | 10.6 | 1.4 | -2.0 | 0.5 | 4.9 |
| 21 | SMU | 15.1 | 11.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 1.2 |
| 22 | Arizona State | 14.9 | 11.3 | 0.2 | 8.0 | -3.3 | -1.3 |
| 23 | Iowa | 14.8 | 9.2 | 1.8 | 4.7 | -1.8 | 0.8 |
| 24 | Louisville | 14.3 | 11.9 | 2.0 | -2.0 | -0.3 | 2.6 |
| 25 | Indiana | 13.9 | 17.9 | -1.1 | -1.8 | -3.2 | 2.1 |
| 26 | Texas Tech | 13.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 3.2 |
| 27 | Nebraska | 13.4 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 3.1 |
| 28 | Baylor | 13.3 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 6.0 | -2.1 | -0.8 |
| 29 | Utah | 13.3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 5.7 |
| 30 | Illinois | 12.9 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 6.4 | 0.1 | -1.5 |
| 31 | Missouri | 12.0 | 8.4 | 0.6 | -0.8 | 0.2 | 3.5 |
| 32 | Georgia Tech | 11.1 | 5.6 | -0.8 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 2.5 |
| 33 | Iowa State | 10.6 | 8.9 | 2.3 | 3.5 | -0.4 | -3.8 |
| 34 | TCU | 10.2 | 7.1 | 1.4 | -4.3 | 1.9 | 4.1 |
| 35 | Boise State | 10.1 | 7.0 | 1.2 | 4.1 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| 36 | Minnesota | 10.0 | 9.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | -1.5 | -1.1 |
| 37 | Washington | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | -1.2 | 0.2 | 5.1 |
| 38 | Arkansas | 9.4 | 7.6 | 2.1 | -2.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 39 | Kansas | 8.1 | 6.6 | -0.9 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 2.8 |
| 40 | Wisconsin | 8.1 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | -1.2 |
| 41 | Michigan State | 7.8 | -1.6 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| 42 | UCLA | 7.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 13.9 | 1.5 | -12.2 |
| 43 | BYU | 7.3 | 10.5 | 0.8 | 6.3 | -1.7 | -8.5 |
| 44 | Florida State | 7.1 | -4.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | -1.4 | 9.5 |
| 45 | Rutgers | 7.0 | 3.9 | -0.7 | 4.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| 46 | Cincinnati | 6.7 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 6.8 | 1.5 | -7.5 |
| 47 | Vanderbilt | 6.7 | 6.8 | -2.6 | 9.4 | -1.1 | -5.8 |
| 48 | Pittsburgh | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 1.0 | -4.4 |
| 49 | Kentucky | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
| 50 | Duke | 5.4 | 2.0 | -1.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 4.3 |
| 51 | Boston College | 4.7 | 3.9 | -1.0 | 4.7 | -0.6 | -2.3 |
| 52 | Virginia Tech | 4.5 | 7.1 | -0.5 | 1.1 | -1.5 | -1.7 |
| 53 | Houston | 4.1 | -1.3 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | -1.0 |
| 54 | NC State | 3.7 | -1.7 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 0.2 | -0.3 |
| 55 | Colorado | 3.6 | 9.3 | -2.0 | -2.8 | -2.7 | 1.8 |
| 56 | Syracuse | 3.4 | 3.9 | 0.4 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| 57 | Tulane | 3.0 | 7.6 | 0.5 | -3.5 | 0.0 | -1.6 |
| 58 | Navy | 2.5 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 9.3 | -3.5 | -6.2 |
| 59 | Mississippi State | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | -3.3 |
| 60 | Oklahoma State | 2.0 | -3.4 | 2.7 | -4.5 | 0.6 | 6.6 |
| 61 | West Virginia | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | -3.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 62 | North Carolina | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 | -5.5 | 1.2 | 4.5 |
| 63 | UCF | 1.4 | 4.8 | 1.1 | -5.4 | 1.8 | -0.9 |
| 64 | Arizona | 1.2 | -4.8 | -1.0 | 1.6 | -0.4 | 5.8 |
| 65 | James Madison | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | -1.2 | -1.6 |
| 66 | UTSA | -1.0 | -4.0 | 0.8 | -14.4 | -0.4 | 17.0 |
| 67 | Virginia | -1.1 | -1.3 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 1.3 | -0.5 |
| 68 | Northwestern | -1.1 | -2.9 | -1.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| 69 | Oregon State | -1.2 | -7.9 | 2.0 | 6.2 | 0.0 | -1.5 |
| 70 | Army | -1.4 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 4.3 | -3.6 | -6.9 |
| 71 | UNLV | -1.5 | 6.1 | -2.4 | -5.7 | -1.0 | 1.6 |
| 72 | Liberty | -1.7 | -8.1 | 0.2 | 3.8 | -1.0 | 3.3 |
| 73 | Maryland | -2.8 | -0.7 | 1.2 | -5.3 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| 74 | California | -2.8 | 1.4 | 0.0 | -6.6 | -0.1 | 2.4 |
| 75 | Memphis | -3.2 | 2.7 | 0.2 | -10.1 | -0.4 | 4.3 |
| 76 | South Florida | -3.5 | -2.9 | -2.2 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 2.5 |
| 77 | Toledo | -3.5 | -3.5 | -0.2 | 5.2 | 0.8 | -5.9 |
| 78 | Louisiana | -4.5 | -1.5 | 0.2 | -2.5 | 0.4 | -1.1 |
| 79 | Ohio | -4.8 | 1.0 | -2.2 | 2.4 | 0.4 | -6.4 |
| 80 | Connecticut | -4.8 | -1.1 | -4.5 | 2.9 | 0.4 | -2.6 |
| 81 | Georgia Southern | -5.2 | -3.2 | -2.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | -3.5 |
| 82 | South Alabama | -5.6 | -0.3 | -0.9 | -2.6 | -0.1 | -1.6 |
| 83 | Air Force | -5.6 | -9.2 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | -2.7 |
| 84 | Fresno State | -5.8 | -4.8 | 0.7 | -2.2 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| 85 | Wake Forest | -5.9 | -3.9 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 1.9 | -5.2 |
| 86 | Stanford | -5.9 | -4.3 | -1.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | -5.2 |
| 87 | Texas State | -6.0 | 1.9 | -3.1 | -5.1 | 0.7 | -0.3 |
| 88 | Colorado State | -6.6 | -6.9 | -2.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 2.0 |
| 89 | Old Dominion | -6.7 | -2.0 | -1.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -4.0 |
| 90 | San Jose State | -6.9 | -5.5 | -1.9 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| 91 | Purdue | -7.4 | -11.5 | 1.7 | -5.3 | 1.9 | 5.8 |
| 92 | East Carolina | -7.6 | -4.0 | 0.2 | -2.8 | 0.1 | -1.1 |
| 93 | Washington State | -8.1 | -0.8 | 1.0 | -6.5 | 0.0 | -1.8 |
| 94 | Buffalo | -8.3 | -6.4 | -2.2 | 5.3 | -0.7 | -4.2 |
| 95 | North Texas | -9.1 | -5.1 | -1.5 | -3.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 96 | Miami (OH) | -9.4 | -1.3 | -1.1 | -2.5 | -0.7 | -3.7 |
| 97 | Troy | -9.6 | -7.2 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | -3.2 |
| 98 | Coastal Carolina | -9.6 | -7.8 | -0.1 | -0.6 | 0.8 | -1.9 |
| 99 | Hawai'i | -9.8 | -9.3 | -3.3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | -1.5 |
| 100 | App State | -9.8 | -7.9 | 0.9 | -4.0 | 1.7 | -0.5 |
| 101 | Western Kentucky | -9.8 | -7.1 | 1.1 | -8.6 | 0.2 | 4.5 |
| 102 | Wyoming | -11.1 | -10.0 | -1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | -2.8 |
| 103 | Marshall | -12.2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | -6.8 | -2.2 | -4.9 |
| 104 | Arkansas State | -12.7 | -9.8 | -3.3 | -0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 105 | Jacksonville State | -13.0 | -2.1 | -4.0 | -3.0 | -0.3 | -3.5 |
| 106 | Louisiana Tech | -13.3 | -9.2 | -3.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -1.0 |
| 107 | San Diego State | -13.4 | -12.0 | -0.8 | -0.1 | 0.7 | -1.2 |
| 108 | Georgia State | -13.6 | -10.4 | -1.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | -4.5 |
| 109 | UL Monroe | -13.9 | -8.6 | -3.4 | 5.5 | 1.2 | -8.5 |
| 110 | Bowling Green | -14.1 | -2.3 | -3.1 | -9.1 | -0.4 | 0.8 |
| 111 | Sam Houston | -14.1 | -5.3 | -1.8 | -4.4 | -1.9 | -0.7 |
| 112 | Southern Miss | -14.2 | -20.1 | -2.9 | -4.1 | 1.7 | 11.2 |
| 113 | Central Michigan | -14.5 | -11.9 | -1.4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | -7.2 |
| 114 | Northern Illinois | -15.3 | -2.2 | -2.0 | -10.2 | 0.0 | -0.8 |
| 115 | Delaware | -15.3 | -0.4 | -3.7 | -1.9 | -7.5 | -1.8 |
| 116 | UAB | -15.4 | -10.1 | -0.1 | -3.3 | 2.3 | -4.3 |
| 117 | Florida International | -15.6 | -9.3 | -5.9 | -0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 118 | Rice | -15.7 | -6.2 | -3.3 | -4.0 | 1.1 | -3.3 |
| 119 | Utah State | -16.0 | -8.8 | -1.2 | -6.9 | 1.6 | -0.6 |
| 120 | Florida Atlantic | -16.3 | -10.9 | -1.6 | -4.6 | -0.2 | 1.1 |
| 121 | Western Michigan | -16.3 | -7.7 | -1.5 | -4.1 | -0.5 | -2.4 |
| 122 | Nevada | -16.4 | -7.5 | -1.8 | -3.6 | 1.0 | -4.4 |
| 123 | Eastern Michigan | -16.6 | -9.8 | -2.1 | -1.8 | 1.5 | -4.5 |
| 124 | Middle Tennessee | -16.6 | -18.4 | -1.5 | 7.5 | 0.6 | -4.9 |
| 125 | UTEP | -17.4 | -16.9 | -2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| 126 | Temple | -17.7 | -14.5 | -4.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | -1.7 |
| 127 | Missouri State | -17.8 | -18.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -7.5 | 6.0 |
| 128 | Tulsa | -18.8 | -20.5 | -0.9 | -0.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 129 | New Mexico State | -19.5 | -18.6 | -3.7 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| 130 | Charlotte | -19.7 | -9.5 | -3.9 | -6.0 | 0.5 | -0.8 |
| 131 | New Mexico | -20.7 | -10.2 | -4.3 | -7.0 | 2.2 | -1.3 |
| 132 | Akron | -20.8 | -11.1 | -4.7 | 0.3 | 2.3 | -7.5 |
| 133 | Kennesaw State | -21.3 | -18.8 | -6.8 | 4.5 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| 134 | Ball State | -22.4 | -14.9 | -2.3 | -3.9 | 1.3 | -2.6 |
| 135 | Massachusetts | -23.2 | -13.9 | -6.1 | -3.6 | 1.7 | -1.3 |
| 136 | Kent State | -29.4 | -24.6 | -2.3 | -0.7 | 2.4 | -4.2 |
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How We Make College Football Preseason Predictions
We have identified a set of team-level metrics that have demonstrated predictive value for projecting a team’s upcoming season results.
We identified these metrics by reviewing a decade’s worth of college football data and applying significance tests to any interesting-looking findings. Next, we built an algorithmic model that inputs these metrics and computes a numerical preseason predictive rating for every FBS team.
Please read our deep dive into our college football preseason ratings methodology to learn more about our preseason ratings.
Going from Preseason Ratings to Season Projections
A team’s preseason rating signifies how good we think it will be this upcoming season. Figuring out how many games we expect that team to win is more complicated.
To do that, we run thousands of game-by-game computer simulations of the season, using our predictive ratings to calculate implied win odds for each game.
Thanks to randomness, each season simulation plays out differently. Occasionally, an unheralded team gets lucky in a simulation, makes a run, and wins its conference.
Trends in the results begin to emerge over thousands of simulation runs. The predictions in this post represent the averages of the simulations we conducted.
Why Does Our Approach Make Sense?
Despite some limitations, our simulation-driven approach to preseason college football predictions has proved to be far more accurate than many alternatives.
Some college football experts do a decent job of projecting the future performance level of a team, especially one they’ve studied closely. However, on the whole, humans often have a poor grasp of the potential impact of probability and randomness over a full college football season. For instance, even skilled “college football people” tend to underestimate a great team’s odds of losing to a mediocre or bad team.
A team like Alabama is unlikely to lose to a team like Mississippi State, yet no game is a lock. Throughout a season, even small loss probabilities can add up to a decent chance of a great team losing at least one game to a significantly inferior opponent.
You can’t discount those probabilities, especially when a single win can decide conference championships. Our simulation-driven approach makes sure we never do.
Is it a perfect system? No. When the dust settles at the end of the season, some of our preseason projections will be wrong. Some teams will defy our expectations. Injuries, suspensions, and other unexpected events will derail our forecasts for others.
However, our goal is the system’s overall accuracy—how well it projects the final outcome of all 136 teams this season.
How To Interpret Our CFB Preseason Predictions
In closing, it’s important to understand how our system generates the results it does and what the numbers mean. Here are some key details:
- We project a lot of fractional wins. Of course, that can’t be the result in the actual results of a football game. However, we don’t want to reduce precision in the numbers to make them look pretty. For example, a projected 8.4-win team has better prospects than a projected 7.6-win team. If we rounded those numbers, they’d look the same (eight wins each).
- Even if we project a team with X wins, it doesn’t mean we’re confident it will end up with that exact number. Let’s say we have a team projected to win exactly 7.0 games. Seven wins might have been the most common outcome in our season simulations, but that team may have ended up with six or eight wins nearly as often and hit five or nine wins occasionally. Since our final projection is an average of those outcomes, it ends up at seven wins, but the odds of the team ending up with exactly seven wins aren’t that high.
- Projections can change slightly day-to-day, even with no new game results. We re-simulate the college football season every day. Randomness in simulation results may cause slight fluctuations in team projections even if no new games have been played. You shouldn’t read too much into tiny differences in the projections. For example, a 0.1% difference in conference champion odds between two teams is practically meaningless.
If you’re in a college football pool or planning on betting some games this season, check out our Football Pick’em Picks and College Football Betting Picks.