BetIQ Daily: Bucs vs. Rams and Chiefs vs. Bills Picks Plus NCAAB Over/Under Pick
Sunday picks for BetIQ feature Rams vs. Bucs and Chiefs vs. Bills picks along with a Big Ten over/under play.
January 23, 2022 - by Jason Lisk
Aaron Donald will try to push the Rams to 3-0 against Brady's Bucs (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
BetIQ Daily is ready for a very competitive weekend of NFL action in the divisional round, along with a full day of college basketball.
1) LA Rams +128
- NFL Moneyline Pick
- Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET on NBC
- Our top playable moneyline pick for the divisional round.
- Bucs tackle Tristan Wirfs could not finish the Wild Card Round game with an ankle injury and missed two practices but will try to play on it.
- If Wirfs and center Ryan Jensen, who also suffered an ankle injury last week, are limited, that creates an advantage for Rams DT Aaron Donald and company.
- Bucs have lost to Rams each of last two seasons as a favorite.
2) Kansas City/Buffalo Over 54 Points
- NFL Over/Under Pick
- Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS
- Our Ensemble Forecast model gives this game a 55.1 percent chance of going over.
- Over last three seasons, our over/under model plays rated at 55 percent or higher are 32-24 (57.1%).
- In first matchup this season, Kansas City racked up 29 first downs but scored only 20 points thanks to four turnovers and a failed fourth-down attempt.
- Both of these teams ranked among top five in points and yards in regular season, and offenses should push each other to be aggressive.
3) Michigan/Indiana Under 134 Points
- NCAAB Over/Under Pick
- Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
- This is one of six playable over/unders, according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
- Both of these teams are below-average in three-point attempts taken and rely more on getting the ball inside.
- Both teams also have good size and can neutralize each other in the paint.
- Indiana’s relative weakness on offense is turnovers, but Michigan doesn’t play a higher-pressure defense that tends to create them.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 48-36-2 (57%, +7.6 units)
- College football over/under picks: 180-146-3 (55%, +17.7 units)
- NBA spread picks: 14-10 (58%, +2.7 units)
- NBA moneyline picks: 85-75 (+9.8 units)