BetIQ Daily: Staying on Georgia State and 2022 NFL Draft Futures

Thursday's BetIQ looks at the early favorites for the top pick in the 2022 NFL draft and also continues to ride Georgia State's hot streak.

February 17, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

2021 College Bowl Pool Picks

Aidan Hutchinson is in play for the top overall pick in the NFL Draft (Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire)

BetIQ Daily is going to keep riding a Georgia State hot streak that has done well so far, as the Panthers have been playing far better as of late than their season-long numbers would suggest.

We also take a look at the early NFL draft odds on who will go No. 1 overall.

1) Georgia State -9.5

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • vs. Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7:00 p.m. ET.
  • This is a playable model pick for Tuesday at 54.4 percent cover odds, according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • We’ve won with Georgia State as a pick in each of its last two games, as the Panthers have covered by a combined 17 points.
  • Georgia State has covered five of its last six games after starting 2-10 ATS.
  • Georgia State underachieved early due to injuries and rotation changes after being preseason conference favorite, but has turned it around after getting healthy and surging on defense.
  • Over last three games, opponents have shot 36.2 percent from two and 27.3 percent from three-point range against the Panthers.
  • Georgia Southern is going the other way, and is also one of the worst teams in country at turnovers and three-point shooting.
  • Georgia State is top-20 nationally in forcing turnovers to go along with the improved field-goal percentage defense.

NFL Draft Futures Posted

Now that the Super Bowl is done, some sportsbooks are starting to post 2022 NFL draft futures.

Here are the five favorites (plus ties) to go No. 1 overall at DraftKings Sportsbook:

  • Evan Neal, OT, Alabama: +150
  • Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan: +175
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon: +380
  • Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State: +500
  • Malik Willis, QB, Liberty: +3500
  • Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State: +3500

And here are the top five (plus ties) at FanDuel Sportsbook:

  • Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan: +150
  • Evan Neal, OT, Alabama: +200
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon: +600
  • Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State: +800
  • Malik Willis, QB, Liberty: +4000
  • Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh: +4000
  • Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State: +4000

We aren’t experts at draft evaluation, and we don’t have any inside knowledge here, but some of you may be interested in jumping on a line early.

A couple of notes, though:

  • First, you are generally paying less at FanDuel in the vigorish tax, as you can get a better price on most of the same players.
  • Second, if you were interested in doing so, you could take Neal at FanDuel and Hutchinson at DraftKings and turn a profit if one of those two ends up emerging as the choice.
  • Third, a quarterback has been the first overall pick in seven of the last 10 drafts, but that seems unlikely this year, both based on the class and Jacksonville holding the top pick again.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

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