BetIQ Daily: Gonzaga vs. BYU, Michigan State vs. Rutgers, and Arizona vs. USC Picks

Saturday picks in BetIQ turn to the key Pac-12 showdown between Arizona and USC, Michigan State traveling to Rutgers, and Gonzaga taking on BYU in Provo.

February 5, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Chet Holmgren and Gonzaga have been rolling, will it continue against BYU? (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

BetIQ is hitting the hardwood with one of the best days of college basketball you could hope for.

We’ve got several great teams taking to the road today in big matchups, and you could watch about 10 NCAA Tournament second-weekend-type matchups to keep you warm. Let’s hit the picks.

1) USC +10.5

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • at Arizona, Saturday at 5:00 p.m. ET on FOX
  • This is a playable model pick, according to our Ensemble Forecast and Decision Tree models.
  • Arizona coming off big win against UCLA on Thursday to take lead in Pac-12 race.
  • USC is one of few teams that can matchup up physically with Arizona’s frontline, as both teams are among tallest rotations in country.
  • These teams both rank in the top four in opponent shooting percentage on two-point shots.

2) Rutgers +1.5

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • vs. Michigan State, Saturday at 4:00 p.m. ET on FS1
  • This is not a model pick, but a trends and line move play.
  • Rutgers is playing significantly better since start of January: 10 points better in last 10 games than in first 11 games.
  • Point guard Geo Baker had a hamstring injury that had caused him to miss four games earlier in year and work back from injury.
  • Rutgers is 3-0 SU and ATS as a home dog in Big Ten play, with wins over Purdue, Michigan, and Iowa.
  • In the last hour, the spread moved downward from +2.5 to +1.5 right before publication.

3) Gonzaga -12.5

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • at BYU, Saturday at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • This is not a model pick, but a team form play and trends play.
  • Since forward Gavin Baxter suffered a season-ending knee injury in early December, BYU has been significantly worse overall (more than 6.5 points worse than pre-injury Game Scores).
  • BYU is thin on front line as a result, and has only one starter (Caleb Lohner) over 6’6″, going against Gonzaga’s talented big men.
  • In first matchup, Gonzaga won by 26 points as Drew Timme and Holmgren went combined 16-of-17 on two-point shots against BYU’s defense.
  • This is easily the worst offensive and shooting team under head coach Mark Pope at BYU, struggling to find a consistent option to complement Alex Barcello.
  • BYU continues to slide, losing last three games (at Santa Clara and at Pacific, at home to San Francisco), and its two worst Game Scores of the year have come in last two games.
  • Gonzaga is going the other direction, and freshman forward Chet Holmgren has exploded, including going 16-for-25 from three-point range in conference play.
  • After a slow stretch in late November/early December, Gonzaga has played like a dominant team, with an average Game Score of 29.9 over last 10 games.

Top Matchups in College Basketball

You could just put your television on ESPN in the morning and let it stay on for 12 hours straight and watch six straight big matchups between likely tournament teams.

  • Illinois at Indiana, 12 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Connecticut at Villanova, 12 p.m. ET on FOX
  • Texas Tech at West Virginia, 2 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Kansas vs. Baylor, 4 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Duke at North Carolina, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Kentucky at Alabama, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Mississippi State at Arkansas, 8:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network
  • Gonzaga at BYU, 10 p.m. ET on ESPN

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

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