BetIQ Daily: Kansas vs. Kansas State Picks and Some MAAC-Tion

Tuesday picks at BetIQ Daily take us to the Sunflower State for Kansas vs. Kansas State and has us backing the Saints in the MAAC.

February 22, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Kansas State's Mike McGuirl will challenge spellers and the Jayhawks (Photo by Chris McDill/Icon Sportswire)

BetIQ Daily is ready for a Sunflower State showdown.

We’re also headed to the MAAC for a team that is surging. We hope to thank the Saints later tonight.

And we’ve included a request to you, our readers, to keep an eye out for some futures markets.

1) Kansas State +12

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • at Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
  • This is our top playable college basketball spread pick on Tuesday, according to the Ensemble Forecast Model.
  • Kansas State is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six games with its current starting lineup.
  • In the nine games with Mike McGuirl and Nijel Pack in together as starters, Kansas State is 6-2-1 ATS this year, and more than three points better than other games on average.

2) Siena +6

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • at Monmouth, Tuesday at 7:00 p.m. ET.
  • This is not an Ensemble Forecast model play, but is another play based on the predictive model being far off the betting line, which is usually indicative of a team with lineup changes having value.
  • Monmouth has had one of the nation’s most stable starting lineups, with the five starters accounting for all but five of the 130 available starts across 26 games.
  • Siena is toward the other extreme, with 11 different players having started at least one game, and also going through nearly a month-long stretch between games, including a COVID-19 pause.
  • This game is a make-up of an earlier postponed game in January between these two.
  • Siena (10-5 in MAAC) is getting six points on the road at Monmouth (9-6) based on the full-season stats, but the Saints are playing better recently.
  • Since returning from the pause, Siena is about 7.5 points better than its Game Scores prior to the pause.
  • Siena has covered four of its last five games with its current starting lineup, with three of those covers by double digits.

On the Hunt for Odds to Make NCAA Tournament or Tournament Seeding Props

We’ll send a call for action to all of our readers. We’ve had some past futures picks based on things like odds to reach the Final Four or conference winner odds.

Soon, we’ll probably start getting some NCAA Tournament “make or miss” odds on some bubble-type teams. We should also get some over/under props for a team’s seeding in the NCAA Tournament.

If you see any of those types of props, please reach out to us and let us know where you found them. We would like to include some action on those types of wagers once they become available.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

Get notified when new BetIQ Daily posts are published: