BetIQ Daily: Browns-Steelers MNF Pick, Texas Bowl Pick, and College Basketball Over/Under

Picks for Monday include a MNF over/under for the Steelers and Browns, a Texas Bowl spread, and a Big Ten basketball over/under.

January 3, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Nick Chubb and the Browns will try to rack up points against Pittsburgh(Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

Monday, January 3 (#30)

BetIQ Daily is coming off a big Sunday, going 3-0 while also hitting on all three upset picks highlighted earlier in the week. The Cincinnati Bengals, Las Vegas Raiders, and Arizona Cardinals were the only underdogs to win outright on Sunday.

Now it’s time to close out the NFL Week 17 schedule along with the non-CFP portion of bowl season.

3 Picks for Monday and Tuesday

1) Cleveland/Pittsburgh Over 43.0 Points – NFL Over/Under Pick

  • Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
  • This over/under is right on the cutline of playable (52.3%), according to our Ensemble Forecast Model.
  • Line opened at 41.5 points and has moved upward in last day.
  • Steelers had success against Nick Chubb and Cleveland run game back in Week 8, but since then have allowed 175 rush yards per game.
  • Cleveland offense dependent on run game, averaging 26.1 points when rushing for 150+ yards, and 13.2 points when rushing for 100 or fewer yards.

2) Kansas State -4.5 (vs. LSU) – Bowl Spread Pick

  • Tuesday, 9 p.m. ET
  • Not a model pick, as our models are neutral on the spread and total in this matchup.
  • Teams with at least three points of line movement in their favor are 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS this bowl season.
  • That includes going 2-1 in picks we highlighted last Thursday (wins on Michigan State and Arkansas, loss with Tennessee).
  • This game opened with LSU favored by 2.5 points, but it has steadily moved up to Kansas State now favored by 4.5 points.
  • Most of these big line moves are driven by player participation and opt-out information.

3) Wisconsin/Purdue Under 140 Points – NCAAB Over/Under Pick

  • Monday, 7 p.m. ET
  • One of eight playable over/unders in college basketball on Monday night, according to our models.
  • Both teams coming off highest-scoring games of year against mid-majors, going over the number by 37 and 46 points.
  • Both teams went under in both Big 10 matchups in December.

On the Steelers-Browns Line Move

The point spread in tonight’s game between the Browns and Steelers shifted six points last night after Cleveland was officially eliminated from the playoffs with Sunday’s results. The Steelers still have a slight chance to make the postseason (our season predictions put it at 2 percent).

This line move seems to be driven by reaction to the Browns’ changed motivations. They went from being an extreme long shot who needed several improbable things to happen—just like Pittsburgh—to having no mathematical chance of earning a playoff spot.

Our models are neutral on this one. I weighed a Cleveland pick against that line move, because I don’t see the playoff elimination having much impact on this game. The Browns will still want to beat the Steelers and formally eliminate them, and they’re facing a good matchup against Pittsburgh’s imploding run defense.

Then again, Cleveland has been a recurring factory of disappointment. The best option may just be to lay off the spread in this one.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

  • NFL point spread picks: 47-33-2 (59%, +9.7 units)
  • College football over/under picks: 179-146-3 (55%, +16.7 units)
  • College basketball over/under picks: 455-406-8 (53%, +7.7 units)
  • NBA spread picks: 13-9 (59%, +2.8 units)
  • NBA moneyline picks: 72-61 (+10.6 units)

To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.

We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.

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