BetIQ Daily: MNF Saints vs. Dolphins Plus Guaranteed Rate and Liberty Bowl Picks

Picks for Monday and Tuesday include the MNF game between the Saints and Dolphins along with two bowl games.

December 27, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Marshon Lattimore and the Saints D will try to win on MNF (Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Monday, December 27 (#26)

It’s time to get the last week of the year going with some underdog picks on BetIQ Daily.

See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.

Picks for Monday & Tuesday

1) New Orleans +3.5 (vs. Miami) – NFL Point Spread Pick

  • Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Playable spread pick for Monday Night Football.
  • Line has moved from Saints favored by three points to them now an underdog with news that rookie QB Ian Book would start.
  • Shop for the hook on this line, as it is at 3/3.5 depending on book right now.
  • Total has dropped to 37.5 points, lowest of any game this season so far, so expect conservative game plans and defense to dominate, making key numbers vital.
  • Excluding the first-round rookies, backup QBs making first career start are 5-2 ATS against the closing number this year, including outright wins for Jets (Mike White), Ravens (Tyler Huntley), and Dallas (Cooper Rush).

2) Texas Tech +9.5 (vs. Mississippi State) – Bowl Point Spread Pick

  • Tuesday, 6:45 p.m. ET
  • One of two playable spread picks in Tuesday bowl games.
  • Texas Tech was featured as the longest-shot upset pick in our bowl pick upset article (2-0 so far with UCF and San Diego State wins).

3) West Virginia +5 (vs. Minnesota) – Bowl Point Spread Pick

CFB Playoff Picks and Upcoming Bowl Plays

We will do a separate article for the two college football playoff games later this week, highlighting some plays from the two games on Dec. 31.

If you want to get ahead, we have Michigan State -2.5 and Michigan State/Pitt under 53.5 as playable on Dec. 30 in the Peach Bowl. Pitt QB Kenny Pickett is sitting out, and the line has swung in the Spartans’ favor.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

  • NFL point spread picks: 43-32-1 (57%, +7.1 units)
  • College football over/under picks: 175-144-3 (55%, +15.1 units)
  • NBA spread picks: 13-9 (59%, +2.8 units)
  • NBA moneyline picks: 70-55 (+13.4 units)

To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.

We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.

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