BetIQ Daily: Bucs-Giants MNF Pick, NCAAB Over/Under Pick, NFL Playoff Futures
Picks for Monday November 22 include a Bucs-Giants over/under play, a USC college basketball total, plus some NFL futures value analysis.
November 22, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Tom Brady closes out Week 11 on Monday Night (Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)
Welcome to BetIQ Daily, where we highlight a few sports betting picks from our premium data-driven models and analysis.
Monday, November 22 (#4)
The Giants and Bucs close out NFL Week 11 on Monday Night Football, so we have a pick for that game, some college basketball action, and a look at NFL playoff futures.
2 Picks For Today
1) Tampa Bay-NY Giants Under 49.5 — NFL Totals Pick
- Monday 8:15 PM ET.
- Our models do not have a playable pick on this game, either the total or spread.
- If I had to make a pick (personal opinion), I would lean on the Under in this one.
- Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled somewhat without key players the last two weeks, and WR Antonio Brown is still out.
- The Bucs’ defense was embarrassed on Washington’s game-clinching drive last weekend, and I expect them to play better.
2) USC/Dixie State Under 147 – NCAAB Totals Pick
- Monday 11 PM ET.
- One of two Monday NCAAB totals picks at 55% cover odds or above.
- Dixie State is one of the fastest-paced teams in Division I, leading to the higher total line in this game.
- USC, though, is one of the best at avoiding turnovers and limiting transition chances for opponents, and plays at slower pace.
Full Picks Access
These are just some of the picks available to BetIQ subscribers, as our models have more playable college basketball picks today. Picks for NFL Week 12 and the upcoming college football week are also out.
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Daily Musings
NFL Playoff Futures
With Week 11 (almost) done and Thanksgiving Week upon us, it’s a good time to take a look at some NFL playoff futures. Here’s a comparison of some futures lines at DraftKings Sportsbook, compared to our projected odds and season predictions.
We excluded New Orleans from this list, as Jameis Winston’s season-ending injury throws a wrench in our team ratings. Here are the futures lines where our projections show some value:
| Team | Wager | DK Odds | Break-Even | BetIQ Odds | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | AFC #1 Seed | +200 | 33.3% | 42.3% | 9.0% |
| Arizona | Win NFC West | -500 | 83.3% | 90.9% | 7.6% |
| New England | AFC #1 Seed | +700 | 12.5% | 19.2% | 6.7% |
| New England | Make Playoffs | -500 | 83.3% | 88.7% | 5.4% |
| New England | Win AFC East | +135 | 42.6% | 46.4% | 3.8% |
| Kansas City | Miss Playoffs | +700 | 12.5% | 15.9% | 3.4% |
| LA Rams | Miss Playoffs | +750 | 11.8% | 15.1% | 3.3% |
| San Francisco | Make Playoffs | -110 | 52.3% | 55.0% | 2.7% |
| Denver | Make Playoffs | +350 | 22.2% | 24.4% | 2.2% |
| LA Chargers | Miss Playoffs | +210 | 32.3% | 34.5% | 2.2% |
| Indianapolis | Make Playoffs | -130 | 56.5% | 57.1% | 0.6% |
Some notes on these teams:
- We are above market on New England, but Bill Belichick is no stranger to outperforming market expectations.
- Tennessee might have some value for the #1 seed, though they have been impacted by Derrick Henry’s injury.
- Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams likely make the playoffs, but there is slight value on “No.”
- San Francisco and Indianapolis seem like solid value plays to make the playoffs now, at near-even odds.
- Denver and the LA Chargers play this week in a key swing game, so those odds will shift based on who wins.
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