Monday Night Football: Picks for Ravens vs. Colts (Week 5 2021)

Odds, predictions, trends, and news for the 2021 Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts.

October 11, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Lamar Jackson goes against the Colts on Monday Night Football (Steve Nurenberg/Icon Sportswire)

The Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens meet on Monday Night Football to close out Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season.

The Colts are coming off their first win of the season at Miami, and they’re an underdog for the fifth straight week. The Ravens are coming off an impressive road win at Denver and now stand atop the AFC North.

Can the Ravens continue their win streak, or will the Colts get the big win they need to revive their season?

Monday Night Football Betting Details

Point Spread: Baltimore (-7.0) vs. Indianapolis (Opened at -3)

Over/Under: 46.5 points (Opened at 48.0)

Moneyline: Baltimore -331; Indianapolis +282

Key Injuries: Baltimore OT Alejandro Villanueva is questionable to play, and OT Ronnie Stanley is still out; Colts DE Kwity Paye will miss the game, as will starting CB Rock Ya-Sin (full injury report)

Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions

We’re putting our hot run to the test with this game. We’ve gone 8-1 over the last three prime-time games, with only Russell Wilson’s injury preventing the over on passing TDs on Thursday.

Here are our top picks for the game:

Carson Wentz UNDER 227.5 Passing Yards

Carson Wentz going under the passing yards total was one of our Week 5 Player Prop plays. Quarterbacks in similar games to this one have a median passing yards of 208.0.

Baltimore/Indianapolis UNDER 46.5 Points

The Ravens went over against Las Vegas and Kansas City’s passing offenses in Weeks 1 and 2, but they have gone under the last two weeks against Detroit and Denver. The Colts’ defense held Miami to 17 last week.

Our ensemble forecast model gives a slight lean to the under in this one. Given how the Ravens have played recently against teams that rely on their running game and are not driven by high-volume passers, we’ll go with the under.

Jonathan Taylor OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards

Baltimore has a tough rushing defense (seventh in rushing yards allowed) and will likely blitz a fair amount in this one. But Taylor’s rushing total is already lowered for those reasons.

He’ll have to be a big part of the Colts’ game plan and hit on some plays. He will have his opportunities, too, because Wentz cannot just drop back all game.

Taylor is averaging 68.5 rushing yards per game so far this year and averaged 77.9 as a rookie. He’s gone over 60 rushing yards in each of the last two games.

In similar games, the underdog has averaged 103 rushing yards. Baltimore also throttled Denver despite giving up over 100 yards to Broncos RBs Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III last week.

Given all of that, we see some value in Taylor getting his rushing yards at a lower total.

BetIQ NFL Predictions: Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline Value

Ravens & Colts Betting Trends

Ravens Flying as Favorites: Since the start of the 2018 season, Baltimore is 24-4 SU and 15-13 ATS as a favorite of five points or more.
Not Winning with Wentz: Over his last 44 starts, Carson Wentz’s teams are 18-25-1 SU and 16-28 ATS. The Colts are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS with Wentz.
Teasing the Total: The last six Colts games have finished within six points of the over/under.