Monday Night Football: Picks for Titans vs. Bills (Week 6 2021)

Odds, predictions, trends, and news for the 2021 Week 6 Monday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans.

October 18, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

The Buffalo Bills look to take control of the AFC on Monday Night Football.

The Bills have already won at Kansas City and sit at 4-1. If they can also win at Tennessee on Monday, they will be a heavy favorite to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Meanwhile, the Titans sit atop a weak AFC South. They could stay in a dominant position in the division and get a key win over an AFC contender.

Monday Night Football Betting Details

Point Spread: Buffalo (-6.0) at Tennessee (Opened at -5.5)

Over/Under: 53.5 points (Opened at 54.0)

Moneyline: Buffalo -249; Indianapolis +218

Key Injuries: Buffalo: no notable injuries; Tennessee: a full injury report, including WR A.J. Brown now questionable with illness. WR Julio Jones is expected to return after two missed games. (full injury report)

Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions

Thursday night’s game gave us two close losses. The Eagles got the backdoor cover by going for two late, and Tom Brady just went under the passing yards total. Our picks are 10-8 for the season.

Here are our top picks for Monday Night Football:

Buffalo/Tennessee OVER 53.5 Points

The Bills/Titans game is the highest-value total play of the week, according to our Decision Tree model.

The Bills’ defense ranks first in points allowed entering the game (12.8), in part because of the weak quarterbacks and offenses they have largely faced. The Titans have yet to be explosive in the passing game and have dealt with injuries, especially in their Week 4 loss to the New York Jets.

But Derrick Henry has still been a dominant force, and the Titans rank fourth in first downs gained and eighth in scoring. The Bills are sixth in first downs gained.

Both these offenses are capable of controlling the ball, and they should push each other to the over.

Ryan Tannehill OVER 236.5 Passing Yards

The Titans are expected to score nearly 24 points, and they’re playing one of the best offenses in the league. That’s a recipe for either high passing volume late as they attempt to come back from a deficit or big plays early.

The average expectation in a game with a six-point line and 53.5-point total is 271 passing yards. That provides plenty of value on a higher-volume passing game from Tannehill.

Tennessee Titans +6

Our Decision Tree Model shows value on the Titans against the spread.

The Bills have played well since their Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh, but they also have an unsustainable plus-12 turnover margin over their four-game win streak. Tennessee has had somewhat below-average luck in that category so far.

BetIQ NFL Predictions: Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline Value

Bills & Titans Betting Trends

• Revenge or More of the Same? Tennessee beat Buffalo 42-16 in mid-October last year, but Buffalo had more total yards. The Bills were minus-three in the turnover department in that game, but they have either tied or won the turnover battle in 17 of their 19 games since then.
• High Tennessee Totals. In Titans games with an over/under of 50 or higher since the start of last season, the over is 9-3-1. The Titans are 8-5 SU and 7-6 ATS in those contests.
• Josh Allen in the Road Favorite Role. Buffalo is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when favored on the road with Josh Allen at QB.

Sportsbook Promos

Here are some promotions available at various sportsbooks for Monday Night Football in Week 6:

BetMGM

• Risk-Free Bet up to $25 on the first TD scorer of the game

Caesars

Caesars Sportsbook Links: CO | IN | IA | MI | NJ | TN | VA | WV

• Bet on 1st TD scorer – if bet loses, get a Free Bet equal to stake up to $25 to use on live in-play.

DraftKings

• Place a Same Game Parlay, and if your bet loses, DraftKings will credit your bet back up to $25.

FanDuel

• Place a $25+, first TD scorer wager with cash on the Bills @ Titans NFL game taking place on 10/18 and get $5 in site credit for each TD your player’s team scores in the game. Max $25

PointsBet

• Josh Allen and Derrick Henry props boosts (see PointsBet for full details)