NBA Preseason Predictions 2022: Rankings, Win Totals, Standings & Playoff Odds

NBA preseason predictions for the 2022-23 season, including rankings, win totals, division standings projections, playoff and champion odds.

Jayson Tatum and the Celtics will look to return to the NBA Finals (Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

The 2022-23 NBA season tips off next week, so it’s time to release our preseason predictive ratings and rankings for all NBA teams.

In addition to posting the rankings and some related commentary, we’ll also provide an overview of the methods we use to rank teams. For a more details on that, you can read our post explaining how we make NBA preseason rankings.


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2022-23 BetIQ NBA Preseason Rankings

The table below shows our 2022-23 preseason ranking for all 30 NBA teams, along with each team’s associated predictive rating for the regular season.

RankTeam2022 RatingLast YearYoY ChangeConsensus Win RangeWeighted Avg Wins
1Milwaukee Bucks4.53.6+0.951.8 - 53.052.5
2Boston Celtics4.55.9-1.451.9 - 53.152.5
3Phoenix Suns4.35.7-1.451.4 - 52.551.9
4LA Clippers4.10.1+4.051.7 - 52.452.0
5Golden State Warriors3.95.5-1.651.2 - 51.751.4
6Brooklyn Nets3.61.4+2.249.8 - 50.450.0
7Denver Nuggets3.61.8+1.850.0 - 51.050.6
8Philadelphia 76ers3.62.7+0.949.6 - 50.850.1
9Memphis Grizzlies2.94.6-1.748.6 - 49.349.0
10Miami Heat2.74.3-1.647.9 - 48.548.1
11Dallas Mavericks2.73.5-0.848.0 - 48.548.2
12Minnesota Timberwolves2.71.6+1.148.3 - 48.948.6
13Cleveland Cavaliers2.40.7+1.747.1 - 47.647.4
14Toronto Raptors2.21.4+0.846.1 - 46.646.4
15Atlanta Hawks1.81.4+0.445.1 - 46.145.6
16New Orleans Pelicans1.4-0.5+1.944.2 - 45.344.9
17LA Lakers1.2-2.0+3.243.7 - 44.544.0
18Chicago Bulls0.4-0.5+0.941.4 - 42.341.8
19New York Knicks-0.9-0.1-0.837.7 - 38.738.1
20Portland Trailblazers-0.9-6.5+5.638.4 - 39.938.9
21Charlotte Hornets-1.90.1-2.035.2 - 35.835.4
22Washington Wizards-2.2-3.0+0.834.5 - 35.134.8
23Sacramento Kings-2.7-4.5+1.833.6 - 34.334.0
24Detroit Pistons-4.2-6.7+2.529.3 - 30.029.6
25Orlando Magic-5.4-7.1+1.726.5 - 27.326.9
26Utah Jazz-6.64.7-11.323.6 - 24.724.3
27Indiana Pacers-6.7-2.7-4.023.2 - 24.223.7
28Oklahoma City Thunder-6.7-7.0+0.323.1 - 23.823.6
29Houston Rockets-7.0-7.5+0.522.6 - 23.523.2
30San Antonio Spurs-7.3-0.7-6.622.2 - 22.822.5

Important Rankings Notes

Playoff Adjustments vs. Regular Season

Last year, we began making a few adjustments to NBA team ratings for the playoffs. The ratings in the table above represent our regular-season predictive ratings. These ratings determine win odds for regular-season games, and we use them to project outcomes like regular-season win totals and division-winner odds.

Team Ratings

Team ratings are expressed as points better (positive rating) or worse (negative rating) than a “perfectly average” NBA team when playing on a neutral court.

Last Year Rating

Last Year Rating means each team’s final predictive rating from the 2021-22 season, and Change represents the difference between Last Year Rating and this year’s preseason rating.

Interpreting the Changes

Positive “Change” values mean a team is expected to improve its performance level over last year; negative values mean expected declines.

The final two columns show info about the win total projections of the component systems that we blended in order to create our ratings.

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NBA Preseason Rankings Highlights

Celtics and Bucks on Top

The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks are tied atop our ratings to start the season. The Milwaukee Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo and a very stable roster with almost all of the key players back. Boston recently suspended head coach Ime Udoka for the season, but the team followed up its run to the NBA Finals last year by adding Malcolm Brogdon and Blake Griffin. (The Celtics also added Danilo Gallinari, but he tore his ACL during the offseason and is likely to miss the entire year.)

Both teams should be in contention all year, though the difference between those two and other contenders is fairly small. In fact, six other teams are projected within a point of Boston and Milwaukee in our power ratings.

Bottom of the NBA Expected to Be Bad

While we do not project any team to be more than five points better than the average NBA team on a neutral court to start the season, we do project several to be more than five points worse.

In fact, six different teams are projected to be at least five points worse than the average team: Orlando, Utah, Indiana, Oklahoma City, Houston, and San Antonio. You might call it the “Victor Wembanyana effect.” Teams that are in rebuilding mode and do not have good prospects for the postseason may embrace tanking for the young French star being described by some as the best prospect since LeBron James.

As such, the distribution is not uniform in 2022-23, and the difference between that bottom group and the rest of the league is notable. To illustrate that, the difference between No. 20 Portland and No. 26 Utah is larger than the difference between Portland and No. 1 Boston.

Familiar Faces in New Places

Over the last few years, we’ve seen some big player moves that transformed teams. This year, it’s notably a team that has moved its players that is the biggest story. The Jazz have completely entered rebuilding mode and have traded away most of their key players from the past few seasons. That’s why they are showing up with the biggest downward adjustment from the past year.

Here’s a full summary of player movement for the 2022-23 season. Some notable moves this offseason include:

  • Donovan Mitchell from Utah to Cleveland
  • Rudy Gobert from Utah to Minnesota
  • Dejounte Murray from San Antonio to Atlanta
  • Jalen Brunson from Dallas to New York Knicks
  • P.J. Tucker from Miami to Philadelphia
  • Montrezl Harrell from Charlotte to Philadelphia
  • Christian Wood from Houston to Dallas
  • Jerami Grant from Detroit to Portland
  • Bojan Bogdanovic from Utah to Detroit
  • Patrick Beverley from Minnesota (via Utah) to L.A. Lakers
  • John Wall from Houston to L.A. Clippers

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Western Conference Predictions

Even before the season starts, the numbers here may differ slightly from our NBA projected standings page. That isn’t us adjusting numbers behind the scenes; it’s just the result of random variance in our season simulations, which re-run daily, even in the preseason. Once the 2022-23 NBA season begins, our projected standings page will update every day based on the previous day’s results.

NorthwestWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedNBA Champs
Denver50.731.385.1%51.2%13.5%3.6%
Minnesota48.433.679.7%39.0%9.8%2.2%
Portland38.843.242.7%9.1%1.0%0.3%
Utah24.357.74.2%0.4%0.0%0.0%
Okla City23.758.33.5%0.3%0.0%0.0%
PacificWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedNBA Champs
LA Clippers52.129.988.6%31.2%17.0%10.0%
Phoenix52.030.088.5%30.9%16.9%7.6%
Golden State51.430.686.3%27.7%15.1%12.2%
LA Lakers44.038.063.8%9.0%3.8%3.8%
Sacramento34.147.924.0%1.2%0.4%0.1%
SouthwestWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedNBA Champs
Memphis49.033.081.8%39.9%9.8%3.1%
Dallas48.233.878.7%36.5%8.6%3.2%
New Orleans44.737.367.6%23.3%4.2%1.3%
Houston23.258.83.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
San Antonio22.559.52.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%

Most Likely Division Winners 

Northwest: Denver (51%)

Southwest: Memphis (40%)

Pacific: L.A. Clippers (31%)

The three highest projected win totals all come from the Pacific Division, which is why we have the Clippers with only a 32 percent chance of winning the division, lower than the favorites in the other two divisions. In fact, the Pacific is a virtual tie heading into the season, with the Suns only 0.1 wins behind and the Warriors 0.7 wins back.

Western Conference Outlook

The top of the Western Conference is tight. Fewer than four regular-season wins separate our top seven projected teams in the West to start the season.

Beyond those top seven teams, three others (New Orleans, Los Angeles Lakers, Portland) are the top candidates to be fighting for a playoff spot.

After that, Sacramento has some chance to snap its 16-year playoff drought, and the remaining four teams are all projected for fewer than 25 wins. A few of those teams had a history of recent success but are now in major rebuilding mode, with Utah joining Houston, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City.

Most Likely NBA Champion: Golden State

It’s become fairly common in the modern NBA for the top teams to be projected a little lower in regular-season wins. Veteran teams with star players may be more willing to load-manage and risk a few more losses in the regular season to stay fresh for the postseason.

The defending champion Golden State Warriors have lots of established veterans, with three key players in Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green all over the age of 30. In addition, James Wiseman, the second overall pick in 2020, has battled injuries and missed all of last season, so the team will likely be more cautious with him throughout the regular season.

Last year, the Warriors showed their upside with an 18-2 start to the season before finishing with “only” 53 wins, well behind the Suns in the regular season. That didn’t stop them from surging to the title, though.

While we don’t project the Warriors as the most likely top team in the regular season, they do have the best upside to win the title if all their key pieces are healthy for the playoffs.

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Eastern Conference Predictions

AtlanticWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedNBA Champs
Boston52.529.588.8%34.7%19.9%12.9%
Philadelphia50.331.782.4%23.9%13.0%5.2%
Brooklyn50.131.982.5%24.3%13.1%10.4%
Toronto46.435.672.5%13.9%7.0%2.1%
New York38.343.737.8%3.2%1.1%0.3%
CentralWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedNBA Champs
Milwaukee52.329.788.8%57.3%19.8%11.9%
Cleveland47.434.674.9%28.8%7.7%2.3%
Chicago41.740.354.2%12.7%2.6%0.7%
Detroit29.852.211.0%1.1%0.1%0.0%
Indiana23.558.52.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
SoutheastWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedNBA Champs
Miami48.233.877.7%49.3%9.2%4.4%
Atlanta45.636.468.5%35.7%5.8%1.8%
Charlotte35.346.727.1%7.4%0.5%0.2%
Washington34.847.224.6%6.4%0.3%0.1%
Orlando26.755.36.3%1.3%0.0%0.0%

Most Likely Division Winners 

Central: Milwaukee (57%)

Southeast: Miami (49%)

Atlantic: Boston (35%)

Just as with the Western Conference, the Eastern Conference has a division that looks much tougher than the others. In the East, it’s the Atlantic Division.

We project Boston as the favorite in the Atlantic, but last year’s Eastern Conference champs have plenty of competition from Philadelphia, Brooklyn, and Toronto. That’s why we have the Celtics projected with the lowest odds of winning the division for one of the favorites, but with the best odds to claim the top seed in the East.

Meanwhile, the Southeast Division looks like a two-team race between Miami and Atlanta. Milwaukee is the clear favorite in the Central, even though Cleveland should be much-improved after adding G Donovan Mitchell to a solid team with a young star in C Evan Mobley.

Eastern Conference Outlook

Boston, Milwaukee, Brooklyn, and Philadelphia are all projected for more than 50 wins in the East and are the projected class of the conference.

The next tier of teams competing for playoff positioning include several interesting stories. Atlanta and Miami in the Southeast, Toronto in the Atlantic, and Cleveland and Chicago in the Central should all be in contention.

The East doesn’t have as many projected have-nots as the West, as only one team (Indiana) is projected for fewer than 25 wins. Several teams, including the New York Knicks, Charlotte, Washington, and Detroit, will hope that some younger players emerge and surprise this season.

Most Likely NBA Champion: Boston

We have Boston narrowly ahead of Milwaukee as the most likely NBA champ to come out of the Eastern Conference.

The Celtics were in the NBA Finals a year ago, and they still have a good young core of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Robert Williams III. They also have plenty of veteran depth around them with players like Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, new additions Brogdon and Griffin, and some young players like Grant Williams and Payton Pritchard, both of whom played key roles last year.

Boston might be the deepest team in the NBA, which should give it one of the best second units. The Celtics should be able to navigate through the regular season even if they have some injuries and be contending for a title in the spring.

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2022-23 NBA Playoff Predictions

These are our projections for the playoff odds and advancement odds in both conferences. The “Reach Playoffs” column shows the percent of our season simulations in which each team reached the first round of the NBA playoffs (Seeds 1 to 8). If a team qualifies in the No. 7 to No. 10 spot but loses the play-in tournament, that’s counted as missing the playoffs here.

However, we do list 10 teams for each conference, so you can see which teams we think will most likely be a part of the play-in tournament.

Western Conference Playoff Projections

SeedTeamReach PlayoffsConf. SemisConf. FinalsNBA FinalsNBA Champ
1LA Clippers89%58%35%20%13%
2Phoenix89%54%29%15%8%
3Golden State86%59%37%23%12%
4Denver85%43%19%8%4%
5Memphis82%39%17%7%3%
6Minnesota80%34%14%6%2%
7Dallas79%38%17%7%3%
8New Orleans68%26%10%4%1%
9LA Lakers64%32%16%8%4%
10Portland43%11%3%1%0%

Eastern Conference Playoff Projections

SeedTeamReach PlayoffsConf. SemisConf. FinalsNBA FinalsNBA Champ
1Boston89%62%38%22%13%
2Milwaukee89%61%37%21%12%
3Philadelphia83%46%23%10%5%
4Brooklyn83%55%33%19%11%
5Miami78%41%20%9%4%
6Cleveland75%33%14%6%2%
7Toronto73%31%13%5%2%
8Atlanta69%28%11%4%2%
9Chicago54%18%6%2%1%
10New York38%10%3%1%0%

Round-By-Round Predictions

Based on the above projected seeding and advancement odds, here is our best guess at the actual round-by-round results for the playoffs.

Play-In Games

LA Lakers over Portland (Portland eliminated)
Dallas over New Orleans (Dallas as West No. 7 seed)
New Orleans over LA Lakers (New Orleans as West No. 8 seed, LA eliminated)

Chicago over New York (NY eliminated)
Toronto over Atlanta (Toronto as East No. 7 seed)
Atlanta over Chicago (Atlanta as East No. 8 seed, Chicago eliminated)

First Round

No. 1 LA Clippers over No. 8 New Orleans
No. 2 Phoenix over No. 7 Dallas
No. 3 Golden State over No. 6 Minnesota
No. 4 Denver over No. 5 Memphis

No. 1 Boston over No. 8 Atlanta
No. 2 Milwaukee over No. 7 Toronto
No. 3 Philadelphia over No. 6 Cleveland
No. 4 Brooklyn over No. 5 Miami

Conference Semifinals

No. 1 LA Clippers over No. 4 Denver
No. 3 Golden State over No. 2 Phoenix

No. 1 Boston over No. 4 Brooklyn
No. 2 Milwaukee over No. 3 Philadelphia

Conference Finals

No. 3 Golden State over No. 1 LA Clippers
No. 1 Boston over No. 2 Milwaukee

NBA Finals

No. 1 Boston over No. 3 Golden State

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How We Make NBA Projections

Our projections are based on our 2022-23 NBA preseason ratings. We use those ratings to simulate the full 2022-23 NBA season, including the playoffs, thousands of times.

Starting two years ago, we also introduced a few adjustments to NBA team ratings for the playoffs to better account for player/minute distributions. Teams typically shorten their rotations and give more minutes to their top players in the postseason. Our projections now do a better job of adjusting for that effect.

We average the individual team outcomes in the thousands of season simulations that we run. Those averages become our official preseason projections.

Injuries and Other Roster Changes

As they do every season, injuries and trades will derail at least a few of our preseason forecasts. That’s an inevitable risk of trying to predict the distant future. However, we do incorporate variance into our season simulations to help account for those possibilities.

Projections Represent Averages

The projections are the average results from thousands of simulations. In any individual simulation (or in the real season), some teams will do significantly better or worse than our average projection. But we don’t know which teams those will be. Because of this dynamic, the preseason projections generally look a little conservative at the extreme ends. 

Play-In Tournament Note

These projections include the updated playoff format that began two years ago. Teams that finish seventh through 10th in each conference battle for the final two playoff spots in a play-in tournament.

The playoff odds listed in various places in this article do not count making the play-in tournament but missing out on a first-round playoff spot as reaching the playoffs. However, getting into the first round after coming through the play-in tournament does count as reaching the playoffs.

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Making NBA Futures Bets Based On These Predictions

We also want to provide some quick thoughts to the NBA bettors out there.

If you’re considering using the information here to make NBA futures bets (e.g. a preseason bet on a team’s regular-season win total, or on a team to win its division or the NBA championship), please keep a few things in mind.

Future Payout Odds and Futures Wagers

Identifying value in current NBA futures odds based on our preseason projections requires a more involved process than we cover here. We’ve previously written about how to evaluate futures odds, which you should read if you’re considering betting NBA futures.

Playoff Rotation Impacts

Our projections apply only a few rough adjustments to model the shortened rotations seen in the NBA playoffs. So, playoff advancement odds may be a relative weak spot in our model.

Historical Performance of Projections

We have yet to calculate the historical profits or losses that would have resulted from making futures bets wherever our preseason NBA projections indicated there was an edge, or for a select subset of those bets (e.g. the biggest outliers compared to betting market odds).

If our projections are very far off consensus futures odds in the NBA betting markets, we’re more likely to believe that our models are missing something (and that we should go back and adjust our team ratings) than to believe we’ve uncovered some huge betting edge that no one else realizes.  

Wrapping Up

Plenty of these season projections will end up being wrong for lots of possible reasons. It’s important to understand that our goal is the overall accuracy of the system, and in particular the team ratings and projected regular-season win-loss records.

Even if the system as a whole ends up being more accurate than other NBA pundits or prediction methods, projections for any one specific team could still be far off that team’s actual results.

The value we bring to the table here is a systematic, data-driven approach that more precisely evaluates dynamics that human experts are typically bad at evaluating (e.g. the impact of schedule strength, or accounting for variance in expected team performance). Our system is driven not by subjective opinions, but by data that has demonstrated predictive value.

It isn’t perfect, but it’s far more sophisticated and objective than a lot of what’s out there.

Enjoy the 2022-23 NBA season!

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