BetIQ Daily: Thursday First-Round NCAA Tournament Picks

Thursday's BetIQ Daily is ready for the best day of the year, the first round of the NCAA Tournament, with some highlighted picks.

March 17, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

The 2022 NCAA Tournament First Round has arrived (Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)

The big day is here, the one we have been getting no sleep to get you ready for. We now have our Staff Picks for the NCAA Tournament live, after concluding the Conference Tournament picks at +12.5 units with 50 games picked. To see all of our game picks, you need to subscribe.

For today, we have five games currently posted, and we might add a few other night games as we evaluate. We also have several futures plays listed.

Here is a sample of our picks on Thursday NCAA Tournament action.

1) Murray State -2 (vs. San Francisco)

  • Best odds available at release time are DraftKings -2 (-110).
  • NCAA Tournament Game, Thursday at 9:40 p.m. ET (approx.) in Indianapolis, Indiana on CBS.
  • This is a playable pick based on our lineup and team analysis and injury news.
  • San Francisco forward Yauhen Massalski will miss the game with a knee injury.
  • He also missed the WCC Tournament semifinal, which was the first game all year that a San Francisco starter had missed a game, and the Dons do not play a deep rotation.
  • Massalski is a key interior player, and Murray State is very good at attacking the glass.

2) Providence -2 (vs. South Dakota State)

  • Best odds available at release time are DraftKings +6.5 (-110).
  • NCAA Tournament Game, Thursday at 12:40 p.m. ET (approx.) in Buffalo, New York on TruTV.
  • This is a playable pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, and our review of the matchup factors confirms it as a play.
  • Providence is an overseeded No. 4 seed based on its close-game performance, but its power rating is also deflated by its style and not blowing out weak opponents when ahead, as well as some injury impacts.
  • Providence’s three worst performances, far below all of its other games, were in matchups that in no way resemble the opponent today, and guard A.J. Reeves was either limited or missed all three with an injury.
  • Reeves left the blowout loss to Creighton with an injury, and there has been no news on that front all week, so we assume he is playing. (If news were to break, this becomes non-playable).
  • South Dakota State is a great outside-shooting team with very poor defensive numbers, and it’s a fairly popular upset pick.
  • Providence shot only 3-of-24 from three-point range, its worst performance of year, in its loss to Creighton in the Big East Tournament, an obvious area of positive regression.
  • Creighton has size and is one of the best teams in the nation at opponent two-point shooting percentage, while South Dakota State is at the other extreme, and Providence matches up well.

What’s To Come

Remember, we also have customized bracket picks with NCAA Bracket Picks 2022. There are just a few hours left before the first tip-off. We’ve got you covered with not only bracket picks, but also tools that help you in other contests, including survivor pools.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our college basketball spread picks listed in BetIQ Daily went 19-13 in the month of February, and staff picks are now 30-22 in March as well for +12.4 units. ATS college basketball picks rated as playable with 55.0% confidence are 19-8 ATS since the start of February.

As of post time, here are some other highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

Get notified when new BetIQ Daily posts are published: