BetIQ Daily: NFC Playoff Breakdown

Thursday's BetIQ features a breakdown of all seven NFC playoff teams, from Green Bay to Philadelphia, and a look at similar team performance.

January 13, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys face a tough road to the Super Bowl (Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire)

We continue NFL playoffs week at BetIQ Daily with our NFC Playoff Team Breakdown, looking at key factors for each team.

We will have playoff predictions on Friday, and Wild Card Game picks on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

1) Green Bay Packers

• Packers lost 38-3 to the Saints in the season opener, lost in Week 18 to Detroit when they rested starters, and lost the game QB Aaron Rodgers missed due to COVID-19, but went 13-1 in all other games.
• Rodgers led the league in passer rating, TD rate, and adjusted net yards per attempt.
• The Packers finished “only” plus-79 in point differential, which is ninth-best among playoff teams.
• Green Bay committed a league-low 13 turnovers this season, and Rodgers threw only four interceptions all year.
• The Packers are among the top six in both offensive and defensive net passing yards, and 30th in rushing yards per attempt allowed.
• The most similar playoff teams to Green Bay (see section at bottom for explanation) resemble their current futures odds, as three of 12 won the Super Bowl and four appeared in it.
• Green Bay’s most similar teams went 8-4 SU and 5-6-1 ATS in their first home playoff game.

2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• With 44-year-old Tom Brady, the Bucs led the NFL in pass attempts and were 31st in rushing attempts.
• Tampa Bay finished second in points scored and fifth in points allowed.
• Despite some narratives about the Bucs’ defense, they still rank fifth-best in net yards allowed per pass, slightly better than last season.
• Tampa Bay’s defense did face the most passing attempts of any defense this year, in part because its run defense was so dominant and teams were often trailing against them.
• The Bucs lost WRs Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown in recent weeks, but they could get RB Leonard Fournette back for the Wild Card Game.
• The Bucs’ most similar playoff teams made the conference title game at a high rate (67%), but only two broke through to Super Bowl.
• Those most similar teams went 8-4 SU and 4-8 ATS in the first game, with an average spread of 7.3 points.

3) Dallas Cowboys

• Dallas finished the season ranked first in points scored and in total yards on offense.
• The Cowboys’ defense was below average in both yards per play allowed passing and rushing, and in total yards.
• However, Dallas led the NFL in turnovers forced (34) and in interceptions (26).
• Half of Dallas’ most similar teams reached the conference championship game.
• There was high variability in the Dallas’ comps in the playoffs, as three lost by double digits and three others won by double digits in the opening game.
• Those most similar teams went 8-4 SU and 4-8 ATS in the first game, with an average spread of 6.3 points.

4) Los Angeles Rams 

• The records may not look vastly different, but the Rams are a completely different team from last year’s version.
• They were first in yards and points allowed last year, but they’re middle of the pack in yards this year.
• With Matthew Stafford at QB, the Rams are second in net yards per pass attempts and passing touchdowns, while they rank in the bottom 10 in rushing yards and yards per carry.
• By total yards and yards per play, the Rams rate better at run defense than pass defense, but they allowed more rushing touchdowns (18) than passing (17).
• Stafford threw only four interceptions in the Rams’ 7-1 start, but he has thrown 13 over the last nine games.
• Only one team similar to the Rams broke through to win the Super Bowl (2006 Colts), but they fared well in the Wild Card Round.
• The Rams’ comps (high pass efficiency, average in overall yards allowed, below-average rushing teams) went 9-3 SU and ATS in the first game, with six wins coming by 14-plus points.

5) Arizona Cardinals 

• Arizona started 7-0 before finishing season 4-6 and losing four of its last five.
• Kyler Murray was injured in the first loss of year to Green Bay, and missed three games before returning.
• He has averaged under seven yards per pass attempt in each of the last four games, all without WR DeAndre Hopkins, after averaging more than that in every previous start this year.
• Arizona ranks 10th in both total passing yards and rushing yards, but is more efficient passing and higher-volume rushing than other top passing offenses.
• None of the similar playoff teams to Arizona reached a conference championship game.
• Those most similar teams went 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS in the first game, with an average spread of 6.3 points.

6) San Francisco 49ers

• San Francisco rallied from a 3-5 start to finish 7-2, including two overtime wins.
• The 49ers are third in total yards allowed, but thanks to a minus-four turnover differential, they’re only ninth in points allowed.
• San Francisco finished first in net yards per pass attempt (7.7) as a low-volume pass offense (29th in attempts).
• The Niners’ pass-run distribution was almost exactly 50-50, and they ranked fifth in both rushing attempts and rushing touchdowns.
• Like the Patriots, the 49ers’ similar teams (high-efficiency but low-volume passing, strong defenses) did well in Wild Card Round, but only one (2019 Titans) advanced to title game.
• The most similar playoff teams went 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS on the road in the Wild Card Round (average spread: +4.3).

7) Philadelphia Eagles

• With QB Jalen Hurts as the starter, the Eagles finished first overall in rushing yards (2,715) in 2021.
• The Eagles rushed more often than they passed (550 to 494) and were 32nd in pass attempts.
• Philadelphia had only 16 giveaways but generated only 16 turnovers, so it finished with an even turnover differential.
• On defense, the Eagles were 10th in total yards allowed, ranking similarly in pass (11th) and run (ninth) defense.
• The Eagles’ most similar playoff teams went 6-6 SU and ATS in the Wild Card Round, though they played in more even matchups than the Eagles face (+3.7 spread on average).
• The 2019 Titans and 2010 Jets were the most similar teams to make surprise runs to the conference title game, with none reaching Super Bowl.

Similar Playoff Team Explanation

• In each team discussion, we mention how similar teams performed.
• Similar teams are based on a look at all playoff teams since 2003 (218 total) and finding the 12 most similar, based on statistical factors that include…
  • Playoff seed and win-loss record
  • Points for, against, and point difference
  • Passing yards, rushing yards, and total yards on offense
  • Total yards on defense
  • Pass-to-run ratio of plays on offense
  • Preseason win total expectation (over/under)

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

• NFL point spread picks: 48-36-2 (57%, +7.6 units)
• College football over/under picks: 180-146-3 (55%, +17.7 units)
• NBA spread picks: 14-10 (58%, +2.7 units)
• NBA moneyline picks: 76-67 (+7.3 units)