BetIQ Daily: Three NFL Week 14 Upset Picks to Consider
Picks for Wednesday include three highlighted upset picks for Week 14, including Atlanta over Carolina, and going against the Titans again.
December 8, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Cordarrelle Patterson has been one of the biggest surprises of the season (Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire)
Wednesday, December 8 (#13)
Welcome to BetIQ Daily, where we highlight a few sports betting picks from our premium data-driven models and analysis.
Our Wednesday post highlights NFL upset picks to jump on in Week 14, but we also have picks for college basketball, NBA, and all of the upcoming bowl games. And if you are playing in any college football bowl pools, our College Bowl Pool Picks are back.
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3 Week 14 NFL Upset Picks
Our upset picks went 3-for-3 last week, including the big Detroit win, for +5.4 units. For the year, we are 15-17-1 SU on upset picks for +12.8 units.
In terms of closing-line value, 64 percent have shown positive value compared to the Wednesday line at time of publication.
1) Atlanta +117 (at Carolina) – NFL Moneyline Pick
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Our Similar Games and Ensemble Forecast models see value on Atlanta.
- Carolina is in some disarray and just fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
- Atlanta’s offense is substantially better with Cordarrelle Patterson healthy and playing a big role.
- Since 2002, Carolina is 1-5 SU as a favorite of five or fewer against Atlanta at home.
2) Jacksonville +345 (at Tennessee) – NFL Moneyline Pick
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Our highest-rated moneyline play for Week 14.
- Tennessee has struggled on offense without Derrick Henry and is also without WR A.J. Brown (WR Julio Jones might be available this week).
- We highlighted the Titans as a regression candidate in our first BetIQ Daily, and since then, they are 0-2.
- The Titans are 2-4 ATS and 3-3 SU as a betting favorite this season, including losses to Houston and the NY Jets.
3) Pittsburgh +147 (at Minnesota) – NFL Moneyline Pick
- Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- Decision Tree model sees value on Pittsburgh at both spread and money line.
- Pittsburgh is 6-2-1 when LB T.J. Watt plays the entire game. (He missed two games, along with the majority of the Raiders loss).
- Minnesota is 31st in yards per carry allowed, 30th in total yards allowed, and 28th in first downs allowed.
- Vikings have multiple key injuries on both sides of ball, including to secondary, and RB Dalvin Cook.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 39-29-1 (57%, +6.5 units)
- College football over/under picks: 173-142-3 (55%, +15.3 units)
- NBA spread picks: 13-8 (62%, +3.8 units)
- NBA moneyline picks: 57-41 (+9.2 units)
To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.
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