NFL Conference Championship Picks, Best Bets & Player Props (2026)

We’re running through our favorite NFL Conference Championship picks, including against the spread and player props.

by Spencer Limbach - Jan 22, 2026

Denver Broncos running back RJ Harvey (12) runs after a catch in the second quarter in the AFC Divisional Round game against the Buffalo Bills at Empower Field at Mile High on January 17, 2026 in Denver, Colorado.

(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

Here we go with our NFL Conference Championship picks and props.

There are only two games, but we’ve still got five top picks on deck: a spread pick in each matchup, one player prop from each game, and one long-shot Anytime TD that’s more live than the odds suggest.

Let’s get into it!

NFL Picks Conference Champ: Published Content

When we publish or update a section, we will list it below with the corresponding date it was posted.

Here’s our NFL Conference Championship picks content so far:

NFL Conference Championship Picks: Video

Jason Lisk and Spencer Limbach run through their favorite NFL Conference Championship picks for each game, including spread plays, props, and an Anytime TD bet.

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Thursday, Jan. 22

NFL Conference Championship: Game Picks

We went 23-21-1 on ATS picks and 17-14-1 on totals picks overall for the regular season, which included a 14-8 run over the final six weeks.

The odds listed reflect the market consensus at the time of publishing. Always shop around for the best number before placing a bet.

Here’s what we like for the NFL Conference Championship:

Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

  • This is a playable spread pick in our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • This is a buy-low spot on the number more than anything. Getting Seattle under a field goal at home is rare for a team with this profile.
  • Over the second half of the season, Seattle has played more consistently than the Rams on a down-to-down basis, and the defensive edge has been clearer than the market is pricing.
  • The Rams can absolutely score, but their defense has not been as sharp late as it was early on.
  • Seattle’s overall “Super Bowl profile” checks out. Strong in all phases, not overly dependent on turnovers, and built to win games like this at home.

Denver Broncos +5.5 (vs. New England Patriots)

  • This line has swung hard on the QB injury news, and it could be an overcorrection given the context.
  • Denver is still at home with a solid offensive line and a play caller who can simplify the game plan for a competent backup.
  • The path is pretty clear for Denver’s offense: longer drives, fewer mistakes, keep the game muddy, and stay within one score.
  • New England has taken care of business the last two weeks, but they also benefited from matchups where opposing offensive lines couldn’t hold up. Denver is not that.
  • The risk, obviously, is turnovers. If Jarrett Stidham gifts short fields, this can get away. But if he just plays “normal backup QB football,” this number is too big for a conference title game in Denver.

Thursday, Jan. 22

NFL Conference Championship: Player Props

We went 35-37 in the regular season on yardage and non-TD player props, and here’s what we like for the Conference Championship.

All props and odds are as of Thursday afternoon and may have moved since. Always shop around for the best lines and prices before placing anything.

Broncos RB RJ Harvey Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Game: Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots (Sun 3:00 ET)

This pick comes down to both role upside and matchup.

New England is near the top of the league in receptions allowed to opposing running backs. They do not always give up explosive plays to backs, but they will concede the underneath game, and that is exactly where Denver can live in this matchup, especially with a backup QB taking the reins.

Harvey has increasingly been used as a receiver down the stretch, and his path is not fragile. He can get there on checkdowns even if he does not break a long gainer.

Where to place: RJ Harvey Over 19.5 Receiving Yards | -118 at BetMGM

Rams RB Kyren Williams Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Game: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Sun 6:30 ET)

This is a low bar for a back who is getting consistent involvement in the pass game right now.

Kyren has cleared 12 receiving yards in five straight and has been closer to the low 20s on average over that span. Seattle has allowed heavy RB passing volume this season, including among the most targets and receptions to opposing running backs.

The game environment helps too. If the Rams find themselves trailing, that creates more obvious passing situations for Stafford, and Kyren is one of the easiest answers versus pressure and tight coverage.

Where to place: Kyren Williams Over 11.5 Receiving Yards | -118 at FanDuel

Thursday, Jan. 22

NFL Conference Championship: TD Props

We went 33-50 (+2.3 units) on touchdown props during the regular season, and +9.4 units on TD props during the 2024 regular season.

Of course, that success comes down to picking the right guys to find the end zone, but it’s also about price shopping. Grabbing the best number doesn’t feel like much in the moment, but it adds up fast over time, so always check a few books before placing.

Seahawks RB Velus Jones Jr. (+2200)

Game: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Sun 6:30 ET)

Conference title games tend to produce some interesting touchdown results. Defenses are good, matchups get tight, and “long tail” outcomes hit more often than people want to admit.

With Zack Charbonnet out, Velus Jones could be in the mix as Seattle’s RB2 rotation piece behind Kenneth Walker. He needs one of the normal RB2 touchdown paths: a goal-line series when Walker needs a breather, a red-zone rotation snap, or one designed touch that pops.

Jones saw six carries (10 yards) last week after Charbonnet got hurt. Seahawks RB Greg Holani has been activated and could be in the mix, too. However, Holani’s Anytime TD odds are +850 compared to Jones at +2200, with a very similar path to seeing RB2 carries.

This is a longshot, but it’s one that makes sense when considering the risk/reward.

Where to place: Velus Jones Jr. – Anytime TD | +2200 at DraftKings