7 NFL Futures Bets: Win Totals, Division & Playoff Picks (2025)

We run through our 7 favorite NFL futures bets, including win totals, division winners, and picks to make or miss the playoffs.

by Jason Lisk - Aug 30, 2025

In this article, we will lay out some of our favorite NFL futures bets to target ahead of the 2025-26 season.

We’ve had a strong run with our NFL futures bets, going 2-0 on win totals and 1-1 on plus-money division winners in last year’s preseason futures article. In the two years before that, we went 6-0 on preseason win total picks posted to our Staff Picks page.

That kind of streak is probably unsustainable, but we do pour a lot of research and data into our models and analysis, so let’s try to find some value again in 2025.

You can also check out our:

• 2025 NFL Preseason Predictions and Rankings article, where we lay out our season record predictions and odds for each team, as well as our playoff projections.
• NFL Season Predictions page, which will update weekly based on results.
• Spread, over/under, and moneyline picks from our algorithmic NFL models.

Also, as a quick note, we will be posting our NFL Player Prop Futures in a separate article this year.

Top NFL Futures Bets for 2025-26

The odds and lines referenced below are current as of August 27, 2025.

1. Jacksonville OVER 7.5 Wins (-110, FanDuel)
2. Jacksonville To Win AFC South (+290, FanDuel)

We analyzed comparable teams to all 32 NFL teams this year, using things like last year’s stats, expected win totals, coach and quarterback identity, and history with the team. The Jaguars’ list of comparables had the highest “Win Total Over Rate” at 70+%.

Several factors point toward a potential bounce back for Jacksonville:

• They have a new offensive-minded rookie head coach.
• The starting quarterback was hurt for a chunk of last year and missed several games.
• The average age of the offense is young (but not too young), and there is a good core in place.
• The defense ranked 32nd in passing yards allowed and turnovers forced. Those factors are easier to positively regress.

On the new offensive-minded head coach and quarterback injury factor: there were 16 cases since 2003 of (1) a new rookie head coach and (2) a returning starter QB who had started between 6 and 12 games the year before. Those teams were 10-6 to the Over for their win total. Take out the defensive head coaches, and that number is 8 Overs to 4 Unders.

While there are a few cautionary tales, there were also some big booms in these years, like Sean McVay and Jared Goff. Several teams still went Over in Year 1, even if the pairing wasn’t a long-term success. For example, Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones led the Giants to the playoffs in 2022 against low expectations. The key here is that these situations, with a new head coach and a QB situation with bounce-back potential, have been a value.

Add in that the Jaguars have a potentially strong supporting cast: WR Brian Thomas emerged as a star as a rookie, WR Travis Hunter is a top-5 pick, Brenton Strange moves in as the new starting TE, and the RB depth is strong, and the ingredients are there.