NFL Preseason Predictions 2021: Highlights & Analysis
A review of our 2021 NFL preseason predictions, including season win totals, final division standings, playoff chances and Super Bowl odds.
September 2, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Kansas City and Tampa Bay lead the projections for earning the No. 1 seed in the 2021 NFL season (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)
Below are the TeamRankings 2021 NFL preseason predictions, including win/loss records, final standings, playoff odds and Super Bowl win odds for all 32 teams.
These predictions were initially published in May of 2021, after the NFL Draft and free agency had concluded. There were still some lingering uncertainties, though (welcome back to Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers!). The predictions in this post and the ratings that drive those predictions were updated on August 18,2021 to account for injuries, trades, and other news from over the summer.
We’ve also included a few highlights that stick out from the numbers, plus some tips on how to interpret these predictions.
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NFL Preseason Predictions Performance
Before we get to the 2021 predictions, a quick note on their historical accuracy. Significant year-to-year accuracy fluctuations are always possible, but so far our preseason NFL predictions have proven to be been quite solid.
Michael Lopez, the NFL’s current Director of Data and Analytics, found our preseason projections to be the most accurate system he studied in both 2013 and 2014. TeamRankings was also the only system he tracked that was more accurate than Vegas preseason win totals in both years.
Michael stopped his study after 2014, but we’ve continued to track our win/loss results against win totals lines from leading sportsbooks. Over the last 10 NFL season, when our projected win distribution indicated there was at least 10% “return on investment” value on betting either the Over or the Under on a NFL team win total, our preseason prediction’s implied picks are up +14.0 units.
2021 NFL Preseason Predictions & Highlights
Remember that during the regular season and playoffs, we update these predictions every day on our NFL projected standings page. These predictions are based on our preseason ratings, which have also been released.
Quick Links To Predictions By Conference:
AFC | NFC
Additional Info:
How do we come up with these predictions?
Exactly what do these numbers mean?
Why does our approach make sense?
AFC Preseason Predictions 2021
| AFC East | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Buffalo | 10.6 | 6.4 | 72.0% | 47.9% | 12.8% | 6.2% |
| New England | 9.6 | 7.4 | 57.8% | 31.7% | 7.5% | 3.2% |
| Miami | 8.3 | 8.7 | 37.8% | 16.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| NY Jets | 6.0 | 11.0 | 11.7% | 3.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| AFC North | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Baltimore | 11.0 | 6.0 | 75.5% | 48.2% | 17.7% | 9.3% |
| Cleveland | 10.0 | 7.0 | 62.8% | 32.5% | 9.1% | 4.9% |
| Pittsburgh | 8.4 | 8.6 | 39.8% | 15.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| Cincinnati | 6.3 | 10.7 | 14.0% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| AFC South | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Tennessee | 9.5 | 7.5 | 60.7% | 49.2% | 7.1% | 3.0% |
| Indianapolis | 8.7 | 8.3 | 48.1% | 34.6% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Jacksonville | 6.9 | 10.1 | 22.1% | 13.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Houston | 4.3 | 12.7 | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| AFC West | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Kansas City | 11.6 | 5.4 | 82.0% | 60.2% | 24.8% | 14.2% |
| LA Chargers | 8.9 | 8.1 | 46.5% | 18.0% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Denver | 8.6 | 8.4 | 39.8% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Las Vegas | 7.4 | 9.6 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
Remember, the NFL expanded to a 17-game schedule, and this year, all the AFC teams get to host an NFC team in that extra game.
Kansas City, followed by Baltimore and Buffalo, lead the way in our projected odds to reach the playoffs. But those are the only three teams with a greater than 65% chance of reaching the playoffs in the AFC, a conference with a fairly large middle class in 2021. Only Houston is given less than a 10% chance of reaching the postseason, making the race for the wildcard spots in the AFC pretty wide open entering the year.
No. 1 Seed Odds:
Kansas City (25%), Baltimore (18%), and Buffalo (13%) are the only teams above 10%.
Biggest Expected Increase In Wins:
Jacksonville (from 1 to 6.9) followed by the New York Jets (2 to 6.0)
Biggest Expected Decline in Wins:
Pittsburgh (12 to 8.4) followed by Buffalo (from 13 to 10.6) and Indianapolis (11 to 8.7)
Most Expected Wins:
Kansas City (11.6)
Fewest Expected Wins:
Houston (4.3)
NFC Preseason Predictions 2021
| NFC East | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Washington | 8.5 | 8.5 | 45.2% | 32.0% | 4.5% | 2.3% |
| Dallas | 8.4 | 8.6 | 44.2% | 30.9% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Philadelphia | 7.4 | 9.6 | 29.3% | 18.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| NY Giants | 7.4 | 9.6 | 29.6% | 18.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| NFC North | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Green Bay | 10.5 | 6.5 | 73.5% | 58.0% | 14.1% | 7.9% |
| Minnesota | 8.6 | 8.4 | 46.3% | 26.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Chicago | 7.2 | 9.8 | 25.7% | 12.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Detroit | 5.0 | 12.0 | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| NFC South | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Tampa Bay | 11.8 | 5.2 | 86.6% | 66.5% | 30.4% | 15.1% |
| New Orleans | 8.8 | 8.2 | 47.2% | 17.7% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| Atlanta | 7.6 | 9.4 | 28.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Carolina | 7.3 | 9.7 | 25.9% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| NFC West | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| San Francisco | 9.9 | 7.1 | 61.2% | 31.6% | 9.9% | 4.2% |
| LA Rams | 9.5 | 7.5 | 55.0% | 26.6% | 7.7% | 3.8% |
| Seattle | 9.4 | 7.6 | 54.7% | 26.2% | 7.2% | 3.3% |
| Arizona | 8.5 | 8.5 | 40.4% | 15.6% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
The teams with the two highest win projections in the NFC also happen to have met in the NFC Title Game last year. Tampa Bay leads the way, and also benefits from a division with plenty of turnover as the New Orleans Saints will be without Drew Brees at quarterback for the first time in 16 years. Green Bay moves into the second position with Aaron Rodgers back with the team after a rocky offseason.
San Francisco, meanwhile, will look to rebound from a frustrating season derailed by injuries a year ago, and are the team with the highest projected odds of reaching the playoffs from the deepest division in the NFL, the NFC West.
No. 1 Seed Odds:
Tampa Bay (30%), Green Bay (14%), San Francisco (10%)
Biggest Expected Increase In Wins:
San Francisco (from 6 to 9.9) Atlanta (4 to 7.6) and Philadelphia (4.5 to 7.4)
Biggest Expected Decline in Wins:
New Orleans (from 12 to 8.8), Seattle (12 to 9.4), and Green Bay (from 13 to 10.5)
Most Expected Wins:
Tampa Bay (11.8)
Fewest Expected Wins:
Detroit (5.0)
2021 Prediction Highlights
Worst To First?
Based on our 2021 preseason projections, which teams are most likely to go from worst in their division in 2020 to first in their divisions in 2021?
Since 2002, a last-place division finisher has jumped to first place the next season no less than 21 different times. That’s slightly more than 1 last-to-first jump per season, on average. Last year, it was Washington pulling it off in the NFC East, where 7-9 was good enough to qualify for the playoffs.
Our projections this year have San Francisco (32% chance) as the favorite in their division, while Philadelphia (18%) is next most likely.
When you add up of all of the probabilities, you would expect an average of about 1.0 division winners from this group.
| Team | Division | Odds to Win Division |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | NFC West | 32% |
| Philadelphia | NFC East | 18% |
| Denver | AFC West | 14% |
| Jacksonville | AFC South | 14% |
| Atlanta | NFC South | 9% |
| Cincinnati | AFC North | 4% |
| NY Jets | AFC East | 4% |
| Detroit | NFC North | 3% |
2021 NFL Playoffs Projections
Based on our preseason predictions, we can project the overall playoff picture for each conference at the close of the 2021 regular season.
AFC Playoffs Picture
| Seed | Team | Avg. Projected Wins | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City | 11.6 | 82% |
| 2 | Baltimore | 11.0 | 76% |
| 3 | Buffalo | 10.6 | 72% |
| 4 | Tennessee | 9.5 | 61% |
| 5 | Cleveland | 10.0 | 63% |
| 6 | New England | 9.6 | 58% |
| 7 | LA Chargers | 8.9 | 47% |
| Just Missed | Indianapolis | 8.7 | 48% |
| Just Missed | Denver | 8.6 | 40% |
| Just Missed | Pittsburgh | 8.4 | 40% |
| Just Missed | Miami | 8.3 | 38% |
Kansas City, Baltimore, and Buffalo are atop the playoff projections. Indianapolis was our favorite to win the AFC South back in May, but the combination of Tennessee trading for Julio Jones and Carson Wentz’ injury status has swung that, and now the Titans are projected for the No. 4 seed. Meanwhile, New England is projected back in the postseason after a year away, as they turn to rookie Mac Jones as the starting quarterback. Not much separates just making the wildcard field and missing out in the AFC, and now we have the Chargers just getting in ahead of several other contenders.
NFC Playoffs Picture
| Seed | Team | Avg. Projected Wins | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 11.8 | 87% |
| 2 | Green Bay | 10.5 | 74% |
| 3 | San Francisco | 9.9 | 61% |
| 4 | Washington | 8.5 | 45% |
| 5 | LA Rams | 9.5 | 55% |
| 6 | Seattle | 9.4 | 54% |
| 7 | New Orleans | 8.8 | 47% |
| Just Missed | Minnesota | 8.6 | 46% |
| Just Missed | Arizona | 8.5 | 40% |
| Just Missed | Dallas | 8.4 | 44% |
The NFC East is wide open. In May, we had Dallas slightly in front of Washington, and now have Washington projected just in front. But it’s basically a dead heat there.
Interestingly, Washington has fewer projected wins than every NFC wildcard team, and the top team to just miss the playoffs, following last season when they made it as a team with a losing record.
Those wildcard spots are very tight, as less than a 10% difference in playoff odds separates the teams projected in the wildcard spots and the first team out, Minnesota.
How We Create Our 2021 NFL Preseason Predictions
As we noted in our explainer article on how we create NFL preseason rankings, we have identified a set of team-level metrics that have demonstrated utility for projecting a team’s upcoming season results.
We identified these metrics by reviewing over a decade’s worth of NFL data and applying significance tests to any interesting looking findings. We built an algorithmic model that uses the metrics with predictive power as inputs, and computes a preseason predictive rating for all 32 NFL teams.
A team’s preseason rating signifies how good we think it will be this coming season. Figuring out how many games we expect that team to win or how likely it is to make the playoffs, however, is a more complicated problem. To do that, we run thousands of computer simulations of the 2021 NFL season, using our predictive ratings to come up with implied win odds for each game.
Thanks to randomness, each season simulation plays out differently. Occasionally an unheralded team like Detroit or Houston gets lucky, makes a run and once in a blue moon, even wins the Super Bowl.
Over thousands of simulation runs, though, patterns in the results begin to emerge. The 2021 NFL preseason predictions presented in this post represent the averages of the thousands of season simulations we conducted.
Exactly What Do These 2021 NFL Preseason Predictions Mean?
It’s important to understand how our system generates the results it does, and precisely what they mean. Here are the key details:
- We end up projecting a lot of fractional wins. That obviously can’t happen in real life. But we don’t want to reduce precision in the numbers just to make them look prettier. For example, a projected 9.6 win team has worse prospects than a projected 10.4 win team. If we rounded, they’d look the same (10 wins each).
- Even if we project a team with X wins, it doesn’t mean we’re highly confident they’ll end up with that exact number. Let’s say we project a team with exactly eight wins. In our season simulations, eight wins was probably the most common outcome. But that team may have ended up with either seven or nine wins nearly as often, plus a lower chance to hit five or 11 wins. Our final projection, since it’s an average of all those numbers, ends up at 8 wins. But the odds of the team ending up with exactly 8 wins could be as low as only 15% or so.
- NFL predictions can change slightly day-to-day, even with no new game results. Because we re-simulate the entire remaining 2021 season every day, randomness in simulation results may cause slight fluctuations in team projections from one day to the next, even if no new games have been played. So it’s wise not to read too much into tiny differences in our projections.
Why Is A Simulation-Driven Approach Valuable?
Despite some limitations, our data- and simulation-driven approach to making preseason NFL predictions has some clear advantages over alternative prediction methods.
Human NFL “experts” (some of them, at least) can be decent at projecting the future performance level of a team — especially one they’ve studied closely. But on the whole, humans tend to have a poor grasp of the potential impacts of probability and randomness over the course of a full NFL season.
For example, even knowledgeable “football people” tend to underestimate a great team’s odds of losing to a mediocre or bad team. To simplify the process of projecting team win totals, people often group games into broad categories like “easy win,” “likely win,” “toss-up,” etc. The implicit assumption is that easy win = definite win.
While it’s true that a team like Buffalo is unlikely to lose to a team like Houston, upsets happen routinely in today’s NFL, and those small probabilities keep adding up game after game. So you can’t discount them, especially when division titles can be decided by just one win.
Running thousands of computer simulations of the 2021 NFL season, and directly observing the distribution of outcomes generated by all the various probabilities, is a much more objective and precise way to understand what is likely to happen.
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