NFL Preseason Predictions and Rankings 2022
Our 2022 NFL preseason predictions and power rankings, including season win totals, final standings, playoff odds and Super Bowl odds.
September 1, 2022 - by Jason Lisk
The Rams will try to repeat as champs, but it's a wide open race in 2022. (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
This post documents our official 2022 NFL preseason predictions and rankings, including a preseason rating for each team, projected end of season records and standings, odds to make the playoffs, and more.
For the second year in a row, we initially released our NFL preseason predictions and rankings in early May, after the NFL schedule was released and soon after the NFL Draft.
Between then and now, though, plenty of injuries, trades, and other developments have occurred that led us to refine our numbers.
Barring any big and surprising news in the week left before the first game of NFL Week 1, this post reflects our “official” predictions for the 2022 NFL season.
NFL Rankings and Predictions Menu
Here is what you can find in this article:
- 2022 NFL Preseason Rankings
- Rankings Highlights
- AFC Preseason Predictions
- NFC Preseason Predictions
- NFL Playoff Projections
- How We Make Preseason Predictions
- Interpreting Preseason Rankings
- Historial Prediction Performance
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2022 NFL Preseason Rankings
The table below shows our 2022 preseason ranking for all 32 NFL teams, along with each team’s associated predictive rating (e.g. +7.7 for Buffalo).
The team ratings are expressed as points better (positive rating) or worse (negative rating) than a “perfectly average” NFL team, when playing on a neutral field.
The “SINCE MAY” column presents a team’s rating change since the initial May release of our NFL preseason ratings.
| Rank | Team | RATING | Since May | Baseline | QB | Luck | Draft | Coach |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 7.7 | 0.6 | 6.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6.4 | 0.6 | 5.9 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 0.3 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 5.7 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -0.2 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Rams | 5.4 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 0.6 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4.8 | -0.4 | 6.6 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.3 | -1.7 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Chargers | 4.7 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.7 |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 3.2 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 8 | Denver Broncos | 3.0 | -0.9 | 0.3 | 3.6 | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| 9 | San Francisco 49ers | 2.6 | 0.1 | 3.1 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts | 2.5 | 0.6 | 2.9 | -0.2 | -1.1 | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| 11 | Dallas Cowboys | 2.3 | -0.9 | 4.1 | 0.2 | -0.4 | -1.0 | 0.3 |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1.9 | -0.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | -0.7 | 0.1 | -0.2 |
| 13 | Las Vegas Raiders | 1.8 | 0.2 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | -0.5 |
| 14 | Tennessee Titans | 1.5 | -0.4 | 2.3 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 15 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.2 |
| 16 | Miami Dolphins | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 |
| 17 | New England Patriots | 1.1 | -0.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 18 | Minnesota Vikings | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.4 | -0.2 | -0.9 | 0.2 | -0.3 |
| 19 | Arizona Cardinals | 0.7 | -0.4 | 1.9 | 0.0 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 20 | New Orleans Saints | -0.3 | 1.1 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 0.2 | -1.5 | -2.1 |
| 21 | Cleveland Browns | -0.5 | -1.3 | -0.9 | 2.5 | -0.2 | -0.7 | 0.1 |
| 22 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -1.5 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.6 | -1.0 | 0.0 |
| 23 | Washington Commanders | -3.1 | -0.4 | -3.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| 24 | Carolina Panthers | -3.9 | 1.1 | -6.4 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 25 | New York Giants | -4.3 | -0.9 | -5.7 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 26 | Seattle Seahawks | -5.2 | 0.1 | -1.6 | -4.4 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| 27 | Detroit Lions | -5.2 | 0.6 | -6.5 | -0.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 28 | New York Jets | -5.3 | -0.4 | -7.2 | -0.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -5.3 | -0.4 | -7.3 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.4 |
| 30 | Chicago Bears | -6.2 | -1.4 | -2.8 | 0.2 | 0.7 | -2.0 | -0.9 |
| 31 | Houston Texans | -8.8 | 0.1 | -7.6 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -0.3 | 0.4 |
| 32 | Atlanta Falcons | -9.0 | -0.4 | -7.2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 0.7 |
The biggest rating movement since May involves the following teams:
- Philadelphia: The Eagles traded for WR A.J. Brown during the NFL Draft, and there is more optimism that the passing offense could be improved.
- Carolina: The Panthers traded for QB Baker Mayfield, improving their outlook.
- New Orleans: An overhaul of last year’s dismal receiving corps compared to last year includes generally positive reports on WR Michael Thomas, drafting WR Chris Olave in the first round, and signing veteran WR Jarvis Landry this summer. In addition, RB Alvin Kamara seems less likely to be suspended this season as his court hearing has been continued again, though he could be facing a suspension by next year.
- Cleveland: The betting market has continued to sour on Cleveland, in light of the NFL’s appeal of QB Deshaun Watson’s six-game suspension, and an eventual settlement on 11 games.
- Chicago: The Bears did little to address their offensive issues this offseason, and pessimism surrounding Chicago has continued a slide in the betting market for its season win total. LB Roquan Smith also demanded a trade.
Preseason Ratings Predictive Factors
Using more than a decade of NFL data, we’ve identified team-level stats and characteristics that are highly correlated with success in an upcoming NFL season.
Just as importantly, we’ve worked to identify and ignore often-cited information that actually has little to no predictive value. Anyone can build plausible-sounding narratives that attempt to presage why an NFL team might be good or bad this season (great draft class, motivated from losing in the playoffs last year, etc.). But often times, those types of theories can’t be clearly substantiated by historical data.
(For example, we have not found a strong correlation between the quality of a team’s most recent draft class and its upcoming season performance. However, the quality of draft classes three and four years ago does seem to make a difference, presumably because it takes a few years for the most talented rookies to develop into higher performers.)
Here’s a quick explanation of the factors that currently do influence our NFL preseason ratings:
- BASELINE: A blend of team-age-adjusted recent-season predictive power ratings and betting market data
- QB: Projected starting quarterback play, compared to the rest of the league and recent play for the franchise
- LUCK: Level of improvement (or decline) expected in higher-variance metrics like turnovers
- DRAFT: Expected increases in production based on quality of players recently drafted
- COACH: Impact we expect a coach to have, that isn’t already captured in the BASELINE number. This is generally strongest when a team changes coaches, but can also include situations where we think the market underrates the influence of a coach on a team’s win total.
If you’d like to learn about the methodology behind our (mostly) data-driven preseason ratings, please read our post about how we make NFL preseason rankings.
2022 NFL Preseason Rankings Highlights
Here are some observations and notes from our preseason rankings:
Buffalo Circling the Top of the Rankings
Buffalo has not broken through to make a Super Bowl appearance, losing to Kansas City in each of the last two seasons. The Bills did finish last year on top of our power ratings, though, even though their final record did not earn them a top seed.
Why the disconnect? Buffalo went 0-6 in games decided by one score a year ago, including a dramatic overtime loss in the playoffs to the Chiefs.
However, the fact that Buffalo led the NFL in point differential and points allowed in 2021 is more predictive than their close game outcomes. Plus the Bills have stability at the quarterback position, with the coaching staff, and with the other key players on offense.
Buffalo’s strongest competitors in 2022 have a few more question marks entering the season, making Buffalo a slightly safer pick to top our rankings. For example:
- Kansas City has had some key player turnover, including the trade of WR Tyreek Hill to Miami.
- Tampa Bay has had a coaching change, seen Tom Brady retire then unretire, has WR Chris Godwin coming off a knee injury, and had key Brady target TE Rob Gronkowski retire.
- Green Bay traded star WR Davante Adams to Las Vegas.
What About the Two Super Bowl Teams from Last Year?
The Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals check in at No. 6 and No. 12, respectively, in our 2022 preseason rankings.
We will remind you that both of those teams entered last year’s postseason as the No. 4 seed in their conference, and they were not the two best teams in the NFL based on predictive ratings.
In fact, they both finished last season ranked in nearly the same spots (No. 5 and No. 11, even after accounting for the playoffs) as where we rank them entering 2022.
So while both the Rams and Bengals are contenders again this year, don’t get caught up in overvaluing a handful of 2021 playoff results. Recall that both the Rams and Bengals allowed their Division Round playoff opponents to tie the game in the final minute, before themselves hitting field goals as the clock expired to avoid overtime.
One or two more bad breaks or a lost coin flips, and these teams might have been forgotten footnotes in the 2021 NFL playoffs.
The Russell Wilson Trade Impact
Russell Wilson’s trade to Denver has altered the fortunes of two franchises, and also shifted the balance of power in the NFL for 2022. Denver now ranks at No. 8 in our preseason predictive rankings, while Seattle is all the way down at No. 26.
Without that move, Denver and Seattle would both be closer to a tier of teams just below the league average. With it, the AFC in general, and the AFC West in particular, is loaded in 2022.
The AFC has 11 of the top 17 teams in our preseason rankings, while 7 of the 10 teams at the very bottom of the rankings are in the NFC, including the rebuilding Seahawks.
Houston And Atlanta Bring Up the Rear
Houston may not have had as tumultuous an offseason as it did a year ago, but their prospects are still not great. The team did finally trade Deshaun Watson to Cleveland. They also fired head coach David Culley after just one season, and replaced him with veteran coach Lovie Smith.
The market is still not enamored with Houston’s chances as they turn to 2nd-year QB Davis Mills as the incoming starter.
Houston does have company at the bottom of the rankings, though, as Atlanta is also entering a new rebuilding phase. For the first time since 2007, the Falcons will not have Matt Ryan, who was traded to Indianapolis, at quarterback.
Atlanta had pretty good close-game luck in 2021 (7-2 in one-score games), so their 7-10 record last season masks the fact that they ended up No. 28 in our predictive ratings, and that was before trading Ryan.
Now Atlanta turns to QB Marcus Mariota, who has been serving as a backup with the Raiders and last started a NFL game in 2019 with the Titans. In addition, wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who missed most of last season due to personal issues, has been suspended indefinitely by the NFL for gambling.
Atlanta is a team that has an exciting young tight end in Kyle Pitts, but a lot of question marks as they enter their second year under head coach Arthur Smith.
Worst To First?
Based on our 2022 preseason projections, here are the teams most likely to go from last place in their division last year, to first place in their division in 2022.
| Team | Division | Odds to Win Division |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 43% |
| Denver Broncos | AFC West | 21% |
| Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 11% |
| New York Giants | NFC East | 9% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 8% |
| Detroit Lions | NFC North | 6% |
| Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 4% |
| New York Jets | AFC East | 3% |
Since 2002, a last-place division finisher has jumped to first place the next season no less than 22 different times. On average, that’s slightly more than one last-to-first jump per season. Last year, the Cincinnati Bengals broke through to win the AFC North and go on a run all the way to the Super Bowl.
Our projections only gave Cincinnati a 4% chance of winning their division last season, but the eight last-place finishers from 2020 combined to add to an expected 1.0 last-to-first place teams in 2021. So while picking which specific team may surprise may be difficult, our overall expectation that one team would do it was right in line with reality.
Our projections this year have Baltimore (43% chance) as the favorite in their division, with Lamar Jackson returning from an injury, while Denver (21%) is next most likely to do it now that they have QB Russell Wilson.
When you add up of all of the probabilities, you would expect an average of about 1.1 division winners in 2022 out of last year’s eight last-place finishers.
AFC Preseason Predictions 2022
| AFC East | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Buffalo | 11.7 | 5.3 | 83.4% | 63.9% | 24.5% | 13.9% |
| Miami | 8.9 | 8.1 | 43.6% | 17.4% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| New England | 8.7 | 8.3 | 40.4% | 16.1% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| NY Jets | 5.8 | 11.2 | 8.9% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| AFC North | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Baltimore | 10.1 | 6.9 | 62.8% | 42.7% | 10.1% | 4.4% |
| Cincinnati | 9.1 | 7.9 | 47.6% | 27.9% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Cleveland | 8.3 | 8.7 | 34.2% | 17.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Pittsburgh | 7.5 | 9.5 | 24.7% | 11.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| AFC South | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Indianapolis | 9.9 | 7.1 | 64.3% | 52.8% | 8.4% | 3.7% |
| Tennessee | 9.0 | 8.0 | 50.2% | 36.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
| Jacksonville | 6.2 | 10.8 | 13.7% | 8.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Houston | 4.5 | 12.5 | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| AFC West | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Kansas City | 10.6 | 6.4 | 68.0% | 35.7% | 14.0% | 8.9% |
| LA Chargers | 10.3 | 6.7 | 63.0% | 30.1% | 10.9% | 5.8% |
| Denver | 9.5 | 7.5 | 51.4% | 20.6% | 6.4% | 3.5% |
| Las Vegas | 8.6 | 8.4 | 39.7% | 13.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
The AFC has some top contenders, but also a large middle class and few teams predicted to be at the very bottom of the league.
As a result, the playoff odds are a bit tighter in 2022, with the Buffalo Bills being the only team with over 70% playoff odds entering the season.
Meanwhile, only four teams (Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, New York Jets, and Houston) have less than a 30% chance of making the postseason.
There’s no very clear dividing line for the playoff spots in the AFC in 2022:
- Cincinnati (9.1 expected wins), Tennessee (9.0), Miami (8.9), New England (8.7), and Las Vegas (8.6) are in a virtual tie for the last playoff spot in our projections, separated by just 0.5 win in projection.
- Cleveland was also in that range, but the increased likelihood that Deshaun Watson misses at least half the season has reduced those estimates.
Best No. 1 Seed Odds:
Buffalo (25%), Kansas City (14%), LA Chargers (11%), Baltimore (10%)
Biggest Expected Increase In Wins:
Jacksonville (from 3 to 6.2) and Denver (from 7 to 9.5)
Biggest Expected Decline in Wins:
Tennessee (12 to 9.0) and Pittsburgh (9.5 to 7.5)
Most Expected Wins:
Buffalo (11.7)
Fewest Expected Wins:
Houston (4.5)
NFC Preseason Predictions 2022
| NFC East | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Dallas | 9.9 | 7.1 | 65.2% | 39.2% | 9.8% | 4.0% |
| Philadelphia | 9.9 | 7.1 | 63.5% | 38.4% | 10.0% | 3.4% |
| Washington | 7.8 | 9.2 | 32.0% | 13.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| NY Giants | 7.1 | 9.9 | 24.5% | 9.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| NFC North | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Green Bay | 11.2 | 5.8 | 82.6% | 63.1% | 21.1% | 10.4% |
| Minnesota | 9.3 | 7.7 | 56.0% | 27.0% | 6.2% | 2.6% |
| Detroit | 6.6 | 10.4 | 18.2% | 5.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Chicago | 6.1 | 10.9 | 14.3% | 4.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| NFC South | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Tampa Bay | 10.7 | 6.3 | 78.0% | 63.3% | 16.8% | 8.2% |
| New Orleans | 8.5 | 8.5 | 45.0% | 24.0% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Carolina | 7.0 | 10.0 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Atlanta | 4.6 | 12.4 | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| NFC West | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| LA Rams | 10.4 | 6.6 | 72.7% | 45.5% | 13.9% | 8.4% |
| San Francisco | 9.7 | 7.3 | 62.9% | 33.2% | 8.7% | 4.2% |
| Arizona | 8.4 | 8.6 | 42.6% | 17.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Seattle | 6.0 | 11.0 | 13.3% | 3.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
The teams with the two highest win projections in the NFC were the top two seeds a year ago, though both have some question marks related to their passing games entering 2022:
- Tampa Bay lost Rob Gronkowski to retirement, and Chris Godwin is coming back from a knee injury that could limit him as the season begins (though they did sign veteran WR Julio Jones).
- Green Bay will be without star wide receiver Davante Adams, who was traded to Las Vegas.
The NFC has a smaller middle class than the AFC, as we project only three teams (Minnesota, Arizona, and New Orleans) to end up between 8.0 and 9.5 wins.
No. 1 Seed Odds:
Green Bay (21%), Tampa Bay (17%), LA Rams (14%), Philadelphia (10%), Dallas (10%)
Biggest Expected Increase In Wins:
Detroit (from 3.5 to 6.6) and New York Giants (4 to 7.1)
Biggest Expected Decline in Wins:
Arizona (11 to 8.4) and Atlanta (from 7 to 4.6)
Most Expected Wins:
Green Bay (11.2)
Fewest Expected Wins:
Atlanta (4.6)
2022 NFL Playoff Projections
Based on our preseason predictions, we can project the playoff picture for each conference at the close of the 2022 regular season.
AFC Playoffs Picture
| Seed | Team | Avg. Projected Wins | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo | 11.7 | 83% |
| 2 | Kansas City | 10.6 | 68% |
| 3 | Baltimore | 10.1 | 63% |
| 4 | Indianapolis | 9.9 | 64% |
| 5 | LA Chargers | 10.3 | 63% |
| 6 | Denver | 9.5 | 51% |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 9.1 | 48% |
| Just Missed | Tennessee | 9.0 | 50% |
| Just Missed | Miami | 8.9 | 44% |
| Just Missed | New England | 8.7 | 40% |
| Just Missed | Las Vegas | 8.6 | 40% |
| Just Missed | Cleveland | 8.3 | 34% |
The AFC playoff picture is very muddled. Our playoff odds are based on the results of thousands of season simulations, with the average results reported here. But the dynamics of this year’s AFC makes it more difficult to accurately predict the playoff participants.
We list the Bengals now in the final slot, and the Titans just out. Cincinnati is projected for slightly more wins, Tennessee has the slightly higher overall playoff percentage, while Cincinnati has the higher chance of making it as an actual wildcard.
Tennessee has those odds because of the division they play in, the AFC South. That division looks like a two-team race between the Colts and Titans. However, the actual odds that an AFC Wild Card team comes from the AFC South are relatively low.
If we throw out the simulations where Tennessee wins the division, the team only wins the Wild Card in 14% of the remaining simulations.
That’s a lower rate than if we do the same exercise for New England, Cincinnati, or Cleveland. Which means that while Tennessee is (slightly) more likely to make the playoffs than New England, Cincinnati, or Cleveland, by having Tennessee and Indianapolis both in the playoff field, we are less likely to get both right (but we’re also unlikely to get both wrong).
The AFC West is also very tough. Even though we project three teams from that division as among the most likely playoff teams, the chances that all three of them make it are impacted by each other. In most scenarios where Kansas City wins its division, only one of the Broncos or Chargers are likely to make the playoffs.
Still, we do project around a 20-25% chance that three AFC West teams reach the postseason.
Add up all of the percentages, and you would expect only 4.4 of the the top seven teams listed in the table above to make the playoffs this year.
So if you are looking at the table above and disagree a little about the order, that’s okay. It’s going to be relatively more difficult to get the AFC right in 2022.
NFC Playoffs Picture
| Seed | Team | Avg. Projected Wins | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay | 11.2 | 83% |
| 2 | Tampa Bay | 10.7 | 78% |
| 3 | LA Rams | 10.4 | 73% |
| 4 | Dallas | 9.9 | 65% |
| 5 | Philadelphia | 9.9 | 64% |
| 6 | San Francisco | 9.7 | 63% |
| 7 | Minnesota | 9.3 | 56% |
| Just Missed | New Orleans | 8.5 | 45% |
| Just Missed | Arizona | 8.4 | 43% |
| Just Missed | Washington | 7.8 | 32% |
| Just Missed | NY Giants | 7.1 | 25% |
Unlike the AFC, the NFC has clearer “haves” and (just as importantly when evaluating playoff odds) “have-nots.” Three teams have playoff odds over 70%, and all three teams won their division a year ago.
The final division, the NFC East, has tightened up a bit after the Eagles acquired WR A.J. Brown to help the offense. Dallas is projected with a slightly higher chance of winning the division, but it’s basically a tie as the Eagles and Cowboys have the same win projection.
San Francisco and Minnesota follow as predicted Wild Card teams. A year ago, Minnesota just missed the playoffs after a couple of late losses, and now they hope to make it with a new coach in Kevin O’Connell.
With Philadelphia trending upward, San Francisco closing strong and moving to second-year QB Trey Lance, and Minnesota having a potent offense and new coach, Arizona is the odd team out. The Cardinals outperformed expectations a year ago in the first half of the season, jumping out to a 7-0 start. But they floundered down the stretch, losing seven of their last 11 games.
The next most likely teams to surprise and get into the playoffs are New Orleans (with a new coach and QB Jameis Winston returning from injury), Washington (with Carson Wentz now at QB), and the New York Giants (with a new coach and QB Daniel Jones returning from injury).
How We Create Our 2022 NFL Preseason Predictions
As we explain in our article on how we create NFL preseason rankings, we have identified a set of team-level preseason metrics that have demonstrated predictive value.
We identified these metrics by reviewing over a decade’s worth of NFL data and applying significance tests to any interesting looking findings. We then built an algorithmic model that uses the metrics with predictive power as inputs, and computes a preseason predictive rating for all 32 NFL teams.
A team’s preseason rating signifies how good we think it will be this coming season. Figuring out how many games we expect that team to win or how likely it is to make the playoffs, however, is a more complicated problem. To do that, we run thousands of computer simulations of the 2022 NFL season, using our ratings to determine implied win odds for each game.
Thanks to randomness, each season simulation plays out differently. Occasionally, an unheralded team like Detroit or Houston gets lucky and makes a run. Once in a blue moon, a team projected to be bad in the preseason even wins the Super Bowl.
After thousands of simulations, though, patterns in the results begin to emerge. The 2022 NFL preseason predictions presented in this post represent the averages of the thousands of season simulations we conducted.
What Do These Predictions Mean?
It’s important to understand how our system generates the results it does, and what those results imply. Here are the key details:
- We end up projecting a lot of fractional wins.
That obviously can’t happen in real life, but we don’t want to reduce precision in the numbers just to make them look prettier. For example, a team with 9.6 projected wins has worse prospects than a team with 10.4 projected wins. If we rounded our win projections, they’d look the same (10 wins each). - We may not be very confident that a team will end up with its exact number of projected wins.
Let’s say we project a team with almost exactly 8 wins. In our season simulations, 8 wins was probably the most common outcome. However, that team may have ended up with either seven or 9 wins nearly as often, and sometimes with five or 11 wins. Our final projection, since it’s an average of all those numbers, ends up at 8 wins. But the odds of the team ending up with exactly 8 wins may be as low as only 15% or so. - Our season predictions can change slightly day-to-day, even with no new game results.
Because we re-simulate the entire remaining 2022 season every day, randomness in simulation results may cause slight fluctuations in team projections from one day to the next, even if no new games have been played. So it’s wise not to read too much into tiny differences in our projections.
Why Is A Simulation-Driven Approach Valuable?
Despite some limitations, our simulation-driven approach to making preseason NFL predictions has some clear advantages over alternative prediction methods.
Some human NFL “experts” can be decent at projecting the future performance level of a team—especially one they’ve studied closely. But on the whole, humans tend to have a poor grasp of the potential impacts of probability and randomness over the course of a full NFL season.
In our experience, even knowledgeable football people tend to underestimate a great team’s odds of losing to a mediocre or bad team. And a lot of people like to look at a team’s future schedule and classify games into broad categories like “win,” “loss,” “toss-up,” etc. The implicit assumption there is that a “win” is a definite win, but no game in the NFL is a lock.
While it’s true that a team like Buffalo is unlikely to lose to a team like Houston, even small upset probabilities keep adding up game after game. So you can’t discount them, especially when division titles can be decided by just one win. Just last year, for example, Buffalo—which ended up as the highest-rated team in our rankings and a Super Bowl contender—lost to Jacksonville, the team that earned the top overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Running thousands of computer simulations of the 2022 NFL season, and observing the distribution of outcomes generated by all the various probabilities, is a much more objective and precise way to understand what is likely to happen over the course of a full season.
Final Advice On Interpreting Our Preseason NFL Rankings
Some people get quite worked up about preseason NFL rankings, especially when our numbers suggest that their favorite team is going to be worse than the prevailing consensus in the popular sports media.
That’s to be expected. No one else ranks teams exactly like we do, and our approach often discounts the impact of things that many media pundits believe to be important.
We also have a very specific goals for our preseason NFL team ratings (e.g. to accurately predict the margins of victory of this season’s NFL games) that don’t exactly match the motivations of many other rankings makers.
Just keep in mind that predicting how 32 different NFL teams are each going to do this season is no easy task. No system is perfect, including ours. It has strengths and weaknesses. We expect to get some teams slightly wrong, and some teams very wrong, for a variety of reasons.
But in the long term, our approach has done very well when measured by the yardsticks that mean the most to us, such as predicting margins of victory and team performance levels at the end of the upcoming season.
Look At Ratings, Not Just Rankings
Also, remember to look at team ratings and not just rankings, because ratings tell a much more precise story.
For example, in 2022, 3.1 points separate No. 1 Buffalo from the No. 6 Los Angeles Chargers in our NFL preseason ratings. That’s the same difference between the No. 6 Chargers and No. 14 Tennessee. So the Chargers finishing below the Titans would be no greater surprise than the Chargers finishing above the Bills.
Meanwhile, less than two points separate teams ranked 9th (San Francisco) to 19th (Arizona) in the 2022 ratings, so you can essentially view all those teams as part of roughly the same quality tier.
So don’t overreact to a team’s ranking. Look at the rating as well, and you’ll be able to tell which general performance tier a team is in.
NFL Preseason Predictions Historical Performance
Significant year-to-year accuracy fluctuations are always possible with preseason predictions, but our preseason NFL predictions have proven to be been quite solid.
Mike Lopez, the NFL’s current Senior Director of Data and Analytics, found our preseason projections to be the most accurate system he studied in both 2013 and 2014. Ours was also the only system he tracked that was more accurate than Vegas preseason win totals in both years.
Michael stopped his study after 2014, but we’ve continued to track our win/loss results against win totals lines from leading sportsbooks. Since 2011, when our preseason prediction for a team has indicated that there is at least 10% ROI on betting either the over or the under on its season win total, those implied picks have generated +14.5 units of profit.
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