Does a Tough Early NFL Schedule Help or Hurt? (History Reveals)
We analyzed how teams with hard early NFL schedules have performed over the last four years. Do they underachieve or exceed expectations?
May 16, 2025 - by Jason Lisk
Derrick Henry and the Ravens face some tough early tests (Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)
If you asked most fans (or even coaches), they’d almost always say they want their team to start the season with an easier schedule. Build momentum, settle in, and grab a few early wins. It makes sense, right?
But recent history challenges that conventional wisdom.
So, what happens when teams start the season with tougher schedules? How does this apply to the 2025 NFL schedule and certain teams?
For example, the Baltimore Ravens have many tough matchups early. Tennessee does not have a very tough schedule overall, but the toughest part of it is at the start of the season.
At the other end of the spectrum, Arizona, Minnesota, and Washington are three teams that have relatively easier matchups early in the year.
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Does It Matter When You Play Teams?
It’s one thing to look at the schedule and see if the start of the season looks tough or easy. But does it matter? Ultimately, you play your schedule, and will eventually play all the teams. If some are easier or harder opponents, then eventually, it will balance out…right?
However, there could be some reasons why you’d want to play an easier (or harder) schedule early:
- Injuries. Teams could change, mainly due to injuries, so you might prefer to face the teams that look strongest now later, when those injuries may be a factor.
- New faces. Some teams might look easier because they have new coaches and key players, particularly younger ones, and you might want to catch them early.
- Motivation. However, facing tough opponents early might be a motivating factor to be fully prepared for the season.
- Hitting stride late. Also, if the schedule is tougher early, it is relatively easier later in the year, allowing teams to surge as they get into the season.
For our purposes, we want to know if teams perform better or worse than expected when facing easier or harder early-season schedules (compared to the rest of the season). We looked into it, and the results are below.
Assessing Early Schedule Strength
We pulled the 2021-2024 schedules, results, and preseason ratings. These are the four most recent seasons, and the ones that took place with the 18-week (17-game) schedule.
We then combined our projected expected wins and playoff odds at the start of the season and compared how teams did based on the strength of their schedule in the first six weeks (as it looked at the start of the year), compared to the rest of the season.
We then used AI to take that information, tell us the relatively easier and tougher schedules, and analyze the data. We used our preseason rating for teams and adjusted for home-field advantage to calculate the strength of schedules. So, teams that played more road games and did so against tougher opponents should show up as having a relatively tougher start.
Early Schedule Strength: The Results
2025 Teams: Who Has Tougher and Easier Early Schedules?
Finally, here are the 2025 NFL teams that we show as having the relatively toughest or easiest portion of their schedules in the first 6 weeks.
We have not created our full-season power ratings yet, so this isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison, but we can still get close. We used the market win total and early look-ahead lines data, along with the specific matchups and locations, to develop ratings and come up with these numbers.
Relatively Toughest Early Schedules
| Team | Early Average | Late Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 1.2 | -2.1 | 3.3 |
| Cleveland | 2.9 | -0.1 | 3.0 |
| LA Rams | 1.2 | -1.2 | 2.5 |
| Baltimore | 1.7 | -0.6 | 2.3 |
| Tennessee | 0.3 | -1.5 | 1.8 |
| NY Jets | 0.9 | -0.9 | 1.8 |
| Kansas City | 1.9 | 0.2 | 1.7 |
| Detroit | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| San Francisco | -0.8 | -2.4 | 1.6 |
| Jacksonville | 0.3 | -1.2 | 1.6 |
Remember, these are relative for each team. Detroit and Cleveland play tough early schedules. San Francisco plays the easiest schedule in the NFL, and that is particularly true over the latter half of the season. As a result, they make this list because the first 6 weeks are relatively tougher than the rest of their schedule.
Relatively Easiest Early Schedules
| Team | Early Average | Late Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh | -2.6 | 1.9 | -4.5 |
| Minnesota | -1.8 | 2.1 | -3.9 |
| Arizona | -3.1 | 0.7 | -3.8 |
| Washington | -0.8 | 1.5 | -2.3 |
| Buffalo | -2.4 | -0.1 | -2.3 |
| Dallas | -0.3 | 1.8 | -2.1 |
| Las Vegas | -0.6 | 1.2 | -1.8 |
| Indianapolis | -1.4 | 0.1 | -1.5 |
Pittsburgh actually shows as having the relatively easiest start, as all four games against Baltimore, Detroit, and Baltimore are later in the year, and they get the Jets and home against the Browns early.