NFL Week 1 Betting Picks, Upset Picks & Analysis (2024)

From game picks to teasers, touchdown props, and moneyline underdogs, our NFL Week 1 betting and upset picks article has you covered.

September 6, 2024 - by Jason Lisk

Kyler Murray is back for Week 1 after missing the start of last season (Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Welcome to our NFL Week 1 betting and upset picks article for the 2024 season.

This article is available to premium subscribers (or free trial subscribers). We will post a new article every week and add content segments throughout the week.

When a new segment is published or updated, we will add it to the link list below.

Week 1 Betting & Upset Picks: Published Content

Mon: 49ers vs. Jets Analysis
Thoughts on the final game of Week 1.

Sat: Chasing Touchdowns, Week 1
Our favorite TD props for Sunday’s games.

Sat Update: Injury News that Matters
Key Injury News for the week.

Fri: Sunday Supplements
Late-week adds to the picks as we look to Sunday.

Fri: Campus Visit
A review of some of our top CFB model picks heading to the weekend.

Fri: Eagles vs. Packers Analysis
Notes on the Friday night game in Brazil.

Thu: Chiefs vs. Ravens Analysis
Thoughts on this week’s opening TNF game.

Thu: Fading the Public, Week 1
A cross-over looking into our public pool pick data.

Wed: Injury News that Matters
Key situations that could lead to line movement.

Wed: NFL Week 1 Upset Picks
Our three favorite underdog moneyline picks.

Tue: Teaser Tuesdays (Week 1)
Our favorite early teaser plays for NFL Week 1.

Mon: Early Picks to Consider
Some early betting lines that caught our interest.

Mon Sep 9

49ers vs. Jets Analysis

Aaron Rodgers returns to California, hoping to play his first full game as a Jet. The 49ers are coming off the Super Bowl loss and have had a preseason full of injuries and holdouts. Let’s go through some things to note about tonight’s game.

Where Our Models Stand on the Key Lines

Spread: Currently at -4. It opened at -6 points in May but dipped as low as -3.5 last week before settling up slightly after WR Brandon Aiyuk and OT Trent Williams ended their holdouts. Our models give a slight, but not playable, lean to the 49ers at that number.

Total: 43 to 43.5 points. The Over is our top model play at 43.5, but shop for 43, available at some U.S.-based sportsbooks.

Moneyline: -205 on SF/+175 on NYJ. Our models are right on the edge of playable for SF on this one.

Key News and Notes

San Francisco has not had their full offense together much this preseason. WR Brandon Aiyuk and OT Trent Williams were holdouts much of camp. First round pick WR Ricky Pearsall had a shoulder injury much of preseason, and suffered a gunshot wound last week and is out. RB Christian McCaffrey nursed a calf injury, and is listed as questionable, but expected to play tonight.

The Jets hope to get a healthy Aaron Rodgers. WR Mike Williams, signed from the Chargers, is active but expected to be on a snap count coming back from last year’s knee injury.

Player Prop Notes

The collective betting market is clearly not concerned about McCaffrey’s injury, as his prop to score the first TD (+350) and anytime TD (-190) are the most bet props, according to BetMGM insights. (Or, everyone plans on whining about canceling the bet if he goes out early because of a re-aggravation because that is unforeseeable.) McCaffrey is always one of the most serious threats to score, but those anytime TD odds make it hard to think there’s strong value given his injury status and low game total.
George Kittle’s performances can be up-and-down in the San Francisco offense. They often depend on the matchup, and San Francisco tends to employ him more in tougher, higher-leverage matchups. He’s averaging 62 yards receiving per game the last two years when the point spread is a touchdown or less and 43 yards per game when the spread is larger. Add in that Aiyuk missed most of the preseason practice reps, and we like Kittle props in this one, and you can find the best number right now at BetMGM on yards (42.5) and at FanDuel for any time TD (+200).
Christian McCaffrey’s Over/Under for rushing yards is set at 73.5 at FanDuel. While he surpassed that mark in 11 of 16 regular-season games last year, when he achieved a career-high of 1,459 rushing yards, there are reasons to consider leaning toward the Under in Week 1. At 28 years old, McCaffrey is coming off a calf injury that kept him on the injury report this August, and this could influence how the 49ers manage his workload early in the season. Additionally, the Jets’ defense has shown strength against the run, which could limit McCaffrey’s effectiveness. Game script is another factor to consider, as the 49ers may find themselves in a trailing position, leading to more passing plays than they typically called last year when they often played with a lead. Finally, there is always the concern of a possible re-aggravation of his injury, which could further reduce his touches. Given these factors, there may be value in leaning Under on McCaffrey’s rushing total for Week 1.

Sat Sep 7

Chasing Touchdowns, Week 1

We are on the hunt for some scores. These picks will range from stars near the top of the odds board to score on Sunday to some deeper cuts trying to find hidden value on longer shots. All the players we recommend here will be for “any time TD scorers” in the game. If you like to play the longer odds “first TD scorer” props, the analysis for a lot of these guys is similar, the chances are just much lower.

Also, we list the best odds available at either BetMGM, FanDuel, or DraftKings. Be sure to shop lines at all the books you can access, because you will see a lot more variation in some of these TD market numbers, and getting the best price can make a big difference over the course of a full season.

We list our TD chasing in descending order of odds/risk:

RB De’Von Achane, Dolphins (+120 at FanDuel)

Yes, we are high on Achane. He’s healthy, he’s explosive, and we get him in a high total game to start the year. We have Achane projected to be among the league leaders in total touchdowns this year because of his ability as both a big-play rusher and receiver. He could very well lead all NFL running backs in receiving TDs if he stays healthy. He scored 11 total TDs in 11 games last year, and we expect a volume increase in his opportunities in 2024, coming off such an explosive rookie year. Unlike other top-backs, you can still get Achane at + numbers on an any-time TD … for now.

QB Anthony Richardson, Colts (+130 at DraftKings)

We’ve got another high total game where we are expecting points. Last year, in the early game between these teams, Richardson scored twice on the ground before suffering an injury in the first half and leaving the game. The Texans defense ranked first in pass TDs allowed last year (17) but 27th in rush TDs allowed (19). With a mobile QB like Richardson who is more of a project as a passer, we expect the Colts to have him ready to use his legs in the red zone.

WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Seahawks (+250 at FanDuel)

Jaxson Smith-Njigba is another second-year player we are high on. He had a mildly disappointing rookie year compared to some lofty expectations, but 63 catches for 628 yards and 4 TDs is far from a bust, especially when we know he started last year dealing with a wrist injury.

Fast forward to 2024, and we have a new coaching staff that might better utilize Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett turns 32 this month, and has been battling injuries and was limited in practice this week. Oh, and it’s a great matchup, where Seattle is a 6-point favorite against a Denver defense that surrendered 29 passing TDs a year ago.

You are still getting some market hesitation here, with Smith-Njigba and Lockett being priced near each other. In fact, at FanDuel, Lockett’s odds are lower, which is why we show that as your best price. We don’t think there is any even split here, especially with Lockett missing a lot of time with his injury and possibly being on a snap count in game one.

RB Pierre Strong, Browns (+700 at BetMGM)

The books are pricing Jerome Ford as the clear Browns starting RB in Week 1, and his TD price (in a low total game) is in line with guys like Achane, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne.

But what if they are wrong? We don’t know exactly what the Cleveland coaching staff is thinking, but we are willing to fade a player like Ford that is at far more risk of having a lower percentage of touches than clear-cut No. 1 starters on good offenses on other teams. If this is anything close to a two-man committee, this price is massively off for Strong.

In our similar player tool, the top comp for Strong is 2023 Zack Moss, another back who got an early opportunity due to injury. Strong was buried behind Ford and Kareem Hunt last year, even after Nick Chubb’s injury, but Hunt is now gone. Strong hasn’t gotten that many touches in the NFL, but his career averages are 5.4 yards per carry and 7.4 yards per reception. Ford was pretty hit-or-miss last year. After rushing for over 100 yards in the game that Chubb got hurt, he averaged under 3 yards per carry in over half of the remaining games.

If this is closer to a 60/40 split committee, or Strong is a goal line back, this one looks like amazing value. That’s at least in the range of outcomes to start Week 1 this year, in a way some other backup RBs are not. We would have recommended this at the +500 available at FanDuel, but then we saw this BetMGM price. Good luck if you have access to it.

TE Josh Whyle, Titans (+1200 at BetMGM)

Josh Whyle, entering his second year in the NFL, is listed as a co-starter at TE on the Titans’ official depth chart, along with Chigoziem Okonkwo, and it’s like no one cares, especially the person setting this prop at BetMGM. This number is at +700 at DraftKings and +650 at FanDuel, and those are good values too.

Whyle is 6’7″; Okonkwo is 6’3.” If they are co-starters, then we know which one we would project to be in at the goal line, and it’s not the one with the much shorter TD odds this week. (Whyle had 15 TDs on 88 career receptions in college at Cincinnati.)

We have a new coaching staff, which is creating additional uncertainty about roles. Whyle was getting plenty of buzz in the summer out of the Titans, and the offensive coordinator praised his ball skills and size as a weapon on third downs and in the red zone.

We already added a pick on the Titans against the spread this week, and Whyle looks like an intriguing longshot option to tack on to that, as the market is largely unaware he will be getting a good amount of snaps and is a red zone target option.

TE Mike Gesicki, Bengals (+370 at DraftKings)

With Tee Higgins doubtful for this game and uncertainty surrounding how much Ja’Marr Chase will play, if at all, the Bengals may need to turn to other offensive skill players to find the end zone. Mike Gesicki, who joined the Bengals in the offseason, will face his former team this week as the Bengals play the Patriots. Reports from training camp indicate that Gesicki has been a positive addition and possibly a meaningful contributor to the offense. In interviews throughout training camp, Joe Burrow mentioned how well Gesicki fits into their offensive scheme. We’ve bet on Gesicki for the first touchdown (+1600 at DraftKings) and anytime touchdown (+370 at DraftKings).

Wed Sep 4 (Updated Sat Sep 7)

Injury News That Matters

[UPDATE: Here is additional injury news since the Wednesday reports. The original is posted below it.]

QB Russell Wilson, Steelers: Wilson has been dealing with a calf injury, and Justin Fields has now been confirmed as the starter. This line has started to move slightly, ticking above the key number of 3, and is now Atlanta -3.5.

WR Tee Higgins, Bengals: doubtful to play. Add in that OT Amarius Mims is out, and WR Ja’Marr Chase is potentially limited, and the Bengals’ offense is going to be at less than full strength to start the opener.

OT Jedrick Wills, Browns: the Browns starting LT is out, going against Micah Parsons. This line has stayed steady, even though we previously noted Dallas being the more popular side to win.

Wednesday is the first day teams release official injury reports for the upcoming week, identifying who did not participate or was limited in practice. We will not list every person on the injury report, but we will list some notable ones to monitor.

#1 Packers vs. Eagles

With this game happening on Friday, the info about who might be playing is a little more relevant. The Eagles will be without LB Devin White. The Packers could be thin at RB, as both backups (Emanuel Wilson and Marshawn Lloyd) were limited. WR Romeo Doubs was also a limited participant for the Packers, but the depth at WR is excellent. If anything, these items are a little bullish for the earlier Over position on this game. With little depth at RB, the Packers could choose to put this game more on Love and the receivers, and White is a notable absence in his first year in Philadelphia.

#2 Bengals vs. Patriots

WR Ja’Marr Chase was a limited participant on Wednesday after missing several practices in a contract dispute. OT Amarius Mims, the team’s first-round pick this year, was also limited. Both of these players have the potential to move this line if confirmed as playing, as the line has dropped from 9.5 to 7.5 points in recent weeks.

#3 Dolphins vs. Jaguars

Ten different Dolphins defensive players, and two offensive linemen, were on the Wednesday report as not participating or limited. The Dolphins already have a lot of defensive turnover, so the shape of this defensive depth by Friday could be important.

#4 Saints vs. Panthers

The Saints had three linebackers, plus defensive starters CB Marshon Lattimore and DT Khalen Saunders, show up on the injury report. That’s something to monitor as well.

#5 Falcons vs. Steelers

Three key offensive players were on the report as limited on Wednesday: TE Kyle Pitts of the Falcons and RB Jaylen Warren and OG Isaac Seumalo of Pittsburgh. Atlanta’s pretty thin at pass catchers behind WR Drake London, and Pittsburgh likely wants to run the ball, something that could be impacted with these injuries.

Fri Sep 6

Sunday Supplements, Week 1

In this section, we’ll note any additional picks that have emerged throughout the week. We’ve already listed our Early Week 1 Picks (which had four different picks) as well as Upset Picks and Teasers. We will also have a separate TD Scorer section posted on Saturday, so this will not include any potential TD props.

New England (+7.5) at Cincinnati

Model spread pick
Why are we adding this now? It’s been a model pick throughout the week, but we had concerns over Ja’Marr Chase signing impacting the line. He is returning, it seems, but made comments suggesting he could be on a snap count. Now we find out today that WR Tee Higgins is out. With the line still sitting at the “hook” above the touchdown, and the WR issues for the Bengals, we are adding it now.
Our model picks have gone 17-12-2 when rated at 55% to cover the last two seasons. The dogs have done even better, particularly road dogs like New England here, going 11-4-1 ATS over the last two years. New England is right on the cut line, at 54.8% estimated cover odds at the +7.5.

Chase Brown Receiving Yards Prop

Following today’s news about the Bengals’ two top receiving options, which we discussed in our New England +7.5 pick, the Bengals will need to rely on other offensive skill players to move the ball down the field. With Chase Brown expected to take on more snaps after Joe Mixon’s offseason departure, we are focusing on Brown’s receiving props. We’re taking a ladder approach, betting on him to go Over 14.5 receiving yards (-130), Over 19.5 (+130), and 25+ receiving yards (+190), all odds at DraftKings. Last season, Brown averaged 13 receiving yards per game, while Mixon, now with the Houston Texans, averaged just over 22 yards. Expecting Brown to see additional targets compared to last year, we like this ladder play up to 25 receiving yards.

New York Jets/San Francisco Over 43.5 Points

Model Over/Under pick
Why are we adding this now? This was another situation where we had a lot of moving parts on who could be in or out on injuries, holdouts, etc. It seems the 49ers will now have WR Brandon Aiyuk and OT Trent Williams.
San Francisco was 10-3 on Overs when the spread was under 8 last year, and 2-5 when it was over 8 points, showing different playcalling tendencies, and defensive performance based on opponent quality. Hopefully, Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy in this opener and push the scoring environment here in a matchup where the 49ers should have to throw more.

Tennessee (+3.5) at Chicago

Model lean
Why are we adding this now? It’s not a full model pick, but a model lean, but we like this pick personally. You can get the hook right now, and the Bears are getting all the hype. Meanwhile, we have a situation where we have a team that has been recently successful in the Titans, and just need a refresh, add an offensive mind in Brian Callahan, and are turning to Will Levis in his second year.
We project that the Titans, who went from Derrick Henry to pass catching backs in Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard, and also added Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, will be a far more pass-heavy team, increasing their variance and the potential to spring an upset in Week 1.
Caleb Williams is just the fifth rookie since 2009 to be favored by a field goal or more in his debut. The other four are 1-3 SU and ATS. Lots of QBs who went on to successful rookie seasons did not start off with a win.

Fri Sep 6

Campus Visit

Week 2 College Football Model Picks

Week 2 of the College Football season is here, and we’re highlighting some of our top-rated model plays, each with a 3-star confidence score—the highest rating our model assigns for picks on totals and against-the-spread (ATS). Our predictions are based on objective data and sophisticated analysis. While some people love diving deep into the numbers, others prefer quick, straightforward insights. This weekly segment is designed to provide our top-rated picks in an easy-to-read format. For those looking to explore the data further, head to BetIQ, where you can find detailed projections and in-depth breakdowns of each matchup.

Last week’s performance (Week 1):

Totals: 10-5 on all picks rated 2 stars or higher
ATS: 10-7 on all picks rated 2 stars or higher

The selections below reflect our most up-to-date analysis, considering current betting lines, model outputs, and other relevant game information. Each “TR Pick” has a confidence rating of 1 to 5 stars. Please keep in mind that picks may change as new information becomes available leading up to game time. We recommend you read more about our methods before making any bets:

For Week 2, we are featuring some of our top model picks, each one highlighted here currently holding a 3-star confidence rating.

ATS Model Pick

Missouri -34.5 vs. Buffalo
Saturday, September 7th – 7:00 PM ET
According to the model, Missouri is favored to cover the -34.5 spread with a 55.1% chance. Despite Buffalo’s showing in similar games, Missouri holds a +7.1 edge, making this a reasonable bet. Since the start of the 2019-2020 college football season, there have been 39 games where the closing line favored the home team by 33.5 to 35.5 points. In those games, the favorite has covered the spread 59% of the time, covered by an average of 3.4 points.

Over/Under Model Picks

Arkansas at Oklahoma State – Under 62.0
Saturday, September 7th – 12:00 PM ET
The model projects a 56.0% chance that the total will stay under 62.0 points in this game. The ensemble and decision tree forecasts align, making the under a strong play.
Utah State at USC – Under 63.5
Saturday, September 7th – 11:00 PM ET
The model gives a 55.9% chance for this game to go under 63.5 points, with both the ensemble and decision tree models favoring a lower-scoring affair despite USC’s perceived offensive potential.
Virginia at Wake Forest – Under 55.5
Saturday, September 7th – 7:00 PM ET
According to the model, this game is projected to stay under 55.5 points with a 55.8% chance. This game opened at 54 and has since been bet up past the key number of 55. The decision tree and similar game analysis models support the under, meaning all three predictive models are aligned on the under.
South Carolina at Kentucky – Under 42.0
Saturday, September 7th – 3:30 PM ET
The model gives a 55.7% chance for this game to stay under the 42.0-point total, with strong support from both the ensemble and decision tree forecasts for a low-scoring game. The game opened at 46 before being bet down to 42, but the model predicts that the total is still too high.
Iowa State at Iowa – Over 35.0
Saturday, September 7th – 3:30 PM ET
The model projects a 55.6% chance for this game to go over the low 35.0 total. While these teams are known for their defensive battles, the model sees enough offense to push this game over. This game opened at 36.5 before being bet down to where it currently sits at 35.

Fri Sep 6

Eagles vs. Packers Analysis

Friday night provides a second primetime game to start Week 1. Philadelphia and Green Bay will open their season in Sao Paolo, Brazil, and you can only watch it on Peacock, so add yet another streaming service to your schedule.

Where Our Models Stand on the Key Lines

Spread: Currently at +2 at most books, it was at +2.5 at the start of the week. Our models are fairly neutral on this spread, leaning Packers, but there are probably better ways to play it (see below). According to insights shared by BetMGM, 72% of spread bets have been on the Eagles, the second-highest percentage on one side against the spread for Week 1 so far. But we haven’t seen this line move dramatically. We also noted the Eagles as a public side in the “Fading the Public” segment.

Total: We already posted the Over at 48.5 early in the week. The Over/Under is now at 49.5 at most books. Our models still lean Over, but hopefully, you got the better number earlier in the week.

Moneyline: The moneyline is -130 Eagles/+110 Packers or in that range. We have the Packers ML right near the edge of playable, and compared to the spread being under a field goal, just taking the moneyline is the better way to play it if you want the Packers. But the price is important here, and it’s less attractive as it moves below +110 on the payout.

Key News and Notes

For the Eagles, newly acquired LB Devin White is out, and CB Isaiah Rodgers has also been ruled out. White is a starter, and Rodgers was in the mix to start or see plenty of time at defensive back.

It’s also Saquon Barkley’s first game for the Eagles, changing addresses within the NFC East. He’s not the only new running back, as the Packers added Josh Jacobs to be their starter. The depth behind Jacobs is in question for the opener, as both MarShawn Lloyd and Emanuel Wilson are listed as questionable entering the day.

Green Bay wide receiver Romeo Doubs has been limited in practice with a hand injury but was not listed with any status for tonight’s game and should play.

Player Prop Notes

We don’t know how the Saquon Barkley/Jalen Hurts dynamic will play out over the full season. Hurts has had 15 and 13 rushing touchdowns the last two seasons, as the Eagles have been devastating running the “tush push” at the goal line. There has been plenty of speculation this offseason that Hurts’ goal-line ability will take away from Barkley’s touchdown numbers. But for his debut, we expect the Eagles’ playcalling to try to get Barkley off to a hot start, and like his anytime touchdown prop priced at -115 at DraftKings.
On the Packers’ side, the offense was rolling down the stretch of last year, and it’s a young team with many different scoring options. At the relative cost, WR Dontayvion Wicks (+370 at DraftKings and FanDuel to score a TD) is one we like. Romeo Doubs has been limited in practice this week, and Wicks’ averaged an elite 10.0 yards per target as a rookie part-timer while scoring 5 TDs on 41 catches (including the playoffs). He already showed that big play ability with his brief appearance in the preseason with the starters is going to be hard to keep off the field, and that prop is being priced at twice the odds of other receivers.
For a really deep cut in this game, monitor whether Green Bay TE Tucker Kraft is active. Kraft missed most of the preseason after tearing his pectoral this summer. He also appeared on the injury report and has been limited with a back injury this week. If he doesn’t play (and that seems like a likely route for the Packers to play it safe with the second-year tight end), then Ben Sims will get more snaps, particularly in short yardage. Starting tight end Luke Musgrave is more of a speed guy in the middle of the field, and Sims would have a chance at some play-action opportunities on the goal line. His anytime TD price right now is +2500 at DraftKings. He only has 21 career receiving yards, but he scored on a 1-yard TD against the Chiefs last year and should see quality snaps near the goal line if Kraft is out.

Thu Sep 5

Chiefs vs. Ravens Analysis

We get a heavyweight matchup for the first TNF of the 2024 season, as Baltimore and Kansas City face off in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game. Let’s go through some things to note about tonight’s game.

Where Our Models Stand on the Key Lines

Spread: Kansas City is favored by 2.5 to 3 points, depending on which book you look at. You are probably paying heavier juice on KC -2.5, or Baltimore +3. Our models are neutral on this game, with no playable pick on the spread. If you want to play it, be sure to shop for the best line for the side you want, as you can find some variation out there.

Total: 46.5 points. Our models have a slight Under lean on this one at that line, with the Under at 52.9% to cover at post time.

Moneyline: The Ravens are +125 at a majority of books. Our moneyline models show slight value on Baltimore at that price. It’s the sixth-highest rated moneyline value of Week 1.

Key News and Notes

Kansas City will be without WR Marquise Brown, a former Raven, who suffered a shoulder injury in the preseason. The Chiefs still have more receiving depth than last year, as first-round pick WR Xavier Worthy will join TE Travis Kelce and WR Rashee Rice as key options.

For Baltimore, it will be the debut of RB Derrick Henry. The team will also have a healthy TE Mark Andrews. Andrews did play in last year’s championship game, but it was his first game back after missing seven in a row, and he managed only 18 snaps and 2 receptions for 15 yards.

Player Prop Notes

According to insights shared by BetMGM, the public is all over Derrick Henry in the opener. Henry 1st TD scorer (+550) and anytime TD scorer (-125) are the two most bet props for this game. Henry’s rushing yards Over (63.5) is the fifth-most bet prop, and 99% of the bets on his rushing yards are on the Over. So if you want to fade everyone else, you are anti-Henry in this one. (We posted Henry’s season-long Under 950.5 rush yards as a prop in our preseason article, so we will be rooting for him not to explode in this one.)
One player we like is Travis Kelce. Against Baltimore’s high-pressure and aggressive defense, Kelce has feasted in recent matchups. He had 11 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in last year’s game, even though it was a low-scoring affair with only 27 total points scored. In the previous three matchups with Baltimore, Kelce’s numbers are: 7 receptions for 109 yards, 6 receptions for 87 yards, and 7 receptions for 89 yards. The current lines at FanDuel are over/under 5.5 receptions (-128 on over), and 58.5 receiving yards (-110 both sides).
On the other side, Kansas City does not have a lot to be worried about, but the depth at cornerback has been the one glaring issue this preseason. The team has a top #1 CB in Trent McDuffie, but the rest of the CB room has been an uncertainty with L’Jarius Sneed gone to Tennessee. The team was even scouring the waiver wire on cut day to find CB help, claiming Eric Scott from the Cowboys. They also put in unsuccessful claims on two other cornerbacks.
Baltimore may not be the type of matchup to exploit a Chiefs team still searching for consistency out of its nickel and dime packages, but if they are, some of the secondary Ravens receiving options could have some longer shot value. Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely are two to look at, especially if they utilize Likely in more of a big slot role and effectively as the 3rd WR in two-TE sets. Likely is functionally one of the Ravens’ top receiving options, only blocked by a healthy Andrews at tight end. Bateman’s yardage over/under is around 30.5, while Likely is at a low 16.5 yards. Bateman was +430 and Likely +550 for anytime TD props at FanDuel at post time.

Thu Sep 5

Fading the Public, Week 1

At BetIQ and our companion site, PoolGenius, we have access to a lot of data on how people are picking games in pools across the country, at a lot of different prominent websites. Now, we acknowledge that our pick data is not the same as individual sports books who report on which games and sides are drawing the highest handle and ticket percentages. But those specific notes from books also have their own issues: sometimes those shareable notes do not provide context on what specific lines the bets came in on, and whether that distribution changed with line movement. Sometimes, one book will have a different betting pattern than another.

So while our public pick data might not be capturing specific betting patterns, it is a pretty good indicator of what Joe Q. Public thinks about a matchup. We can see the games where the public is far more confident in a favorite winning, or overvalues the underdog. We can compare the spread pick data to the game winner data to see where there are discrepancies, and compare that to the line movement in the betting markets we are seeing.

So in this segment, we are going to identify some of the notable public darlings or teams that the public is avoiding, and see track how those teams do through the year.

Cleveland vs. Dallas: Who Should Be the Favorite?

The first notable game is Cleveland (-2.5) vs. Dallas. Cleveland is the only Week 1 favorite who is being picked less than half the time by the public to win the game outright. Right now, our public data shows Dallas is being selected as the outright game winner 57% of the time, and 63% in spread pools.

Last year, we pulled data in a late season segment showing how unpopular favorites had done, ahead of the Atlanta-Indianapolis. It included all favorites who were being picked by 40% or less of the public outright to win. Atlanta added another unpopular favorite win, 29-10, that week. In Week 18, three other unpopular favorites went 2-1, with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh winning, and the Chargers losing by a point to the Chiefs resting Mahomes.

So all told last year, the unpopular favorites who were being picked like dogs went 9-4 straight up. The expectation, based on the win odds in those games, was 7.2 wins in 13 games, as almost all were short favorites under a field goal, so the favorites outperformed market expectations, in a small sample size of cases.

Other Public Notables

The public tends to love favorites, and can overvalue them. We usually see that favorites are over-picked, even in spread pools, in public data, at a rate higher than happens in the betting market. We don’t see any massive pick rate difference in Week 1 (we expect that to change as Week 2 is a massive overreaction week to one game samples). Still, here are some others we’ll note for Week 1:

San Francisco: over 70% popularity in spread data, and tied for the 2nd-largest game winner pick rate, even though they are pretty popular for a 4-point favorite, with 84% of the public picking them to win against the Jets on MNF.
Philadelphia: For a game with only a two-point spread now, and where the moneyline and spread have moved down since Monday, the Eagles are popular. The Eagles are being picked by 73% in our public data to win the game, and 65% to cover, even though the game odds are trending closer to 50/50, and the average contest line is higher (+2.5) than the current line available at most books (+2).
New Orleans: This one is notable because the longterm line movement has generally gone against the Saints, but they are popular in spread pools and game winner against that movement. This line was typically at -5 for most of July into early August, transitioned to -4.5 in August, and has largely settled at -4 with the heavier juice to take the Panthers typically. The Panthers were already highlighted as an early pick, and an upset pick play on the moneyline in earlier segments.

Wed Sep 4

Injury News That Matters

#1 Packers vs. Eagles

#2 Bengals vs. Patriots

#3 Dolphins vs. Jaguars

#4 Saints vs. Panthers

The Saints had three linebackers, plus defensive starters CB Marshon Lattimore and DT Khalen Saunders, show up on the injury report. That’s something to monitor as well.

#5 Falcons vs. Steelers

Wed Sep 4

NFL Week 1 Upset Picks

In this weekly featured section, we make our three favorite Week 1 upset picks based on moneyline odds, or the relative payout you’d get if you bet on the underdog to win the game outright.

Some of these upset picks will be close to coin-flip propositions, while others may be long shots that we expect to lose much more often than they win.

Expectations on Moneyline “Upset” Picks

Some of these “upset picks” could also be picks we post in other sections of this article, such as a spread pick. These are a higher-risk but higher-reward version of those types of picks, and you should utilize the format you are most comfortable with. If you bet an underdog on the point spread, you should have closer to a 50/50 chance of winning.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, your bet produces an outsized return, typically larger, and sometimes several multiples larger than your original wager amount.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. For example, for an underdog listed with +200 odds, you would need to win just more than one in three games on average to turn a profit. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Also, the moneyline we list for each team in this article is the consensus line we are showing across books at the time of publication, and may not reflect the actual line available at a book you are using. As a general rule, you should always shop around to find the best price.

This Week’s Upset Picks

Before we get to our three upset picks for Week 1, a quick word on one we are not posting here, and why. Our top moneyline model pick right now is New England moneyline at +330. It’s the biggest payout/longest shot on the board, but we are holding off here for a specific reason.

This spread and moneyline had shifted downward, as Ja’Marr Chase holdout news continued through last week and the start of this one. But there is some reporting that he has practiced with the team today. We believe this price will shift upward if he is confirmed to be signed and playing Week 1 for Cincinnati, and we don’t want to recommend a pick on Wednesday that could get poor closing line value by Sunday relative to the number you could have gotten a month ago, or might get later in the week after news has emerged.

Now, to the three bets we are making:

Arizona (+245) vs. Buffalo

We already listed this one as a spread pick in our Early NFL Week 1 Picks to Consider section. Now, we list the Moneyline play.

In that section, we noted that underdogs who had a QB returning from injury were good bets in Week 1. Let’s put some specific numbers on this.

Since 2009, we have had 18 different cases where an underdog starting QB (all games +3 or larger spreads) had missed at least five games (and often much more) the previous year for the same team. Those underdogs went 9-9 straight up and a whopping 15-3 against the spread. The most recent examples were:

2023 LA Rams (+180), won 30-13 vs. Seattle, with Matthew Stafford returning from eight games missed the previous year
2023 Tennessee (+130), lost 16-15 to New Orleans, covered the spread, with Ryan Tannehill returning from five games missed the previous year
2022 NY Giants (+200), won 21-20 vs. Tennessee, with Daniel Jones returning from six games missed the previous year
2021 Cincinnati (+135), won 27-24 vs. Minnesota, with Joe Burrow returning from six games missed the previous year
2021 Dallas (+354), lost 29-31 to Tampa Bay, covered the spread, with Dak Prescott returning from 11 games missed the previous year

Those recent examples went 3-2 SU and the two that lost did so by a combined 3 points. You may ask why this might be a real factor, versus noise. A lot of the computer models driving these lines are based on aggregate data and general league-wide data showing positive and negative regression from the previous year’s baseline ratings. Doing this level of analysis into QB injuries is not quick nor easy and goes much deeper than what a lot of models are doing. If models are based on the baseline of the previous year’s results, but QB injuries wrecked that particular team, you are probably getting less of a true baseline of the teams quality with the quarterback back as the starter.

For example, last year’s version of the Arizona Cardinals threw rookie Clayton Tune to the wolves in Cleveland, where Arizona scored 0 points, had 58 total yards, and 17 passing yards. And that has very little to do with this year’s team. However, it is part of the data that forms Arizona’s baseline value from a year ago. Arizona was about six points better per game on offense with Murray than without last year. Add in rookie Marvin Harrison, Jr., the emergence of TE Trey McBride, and second-year WR Michael Wilson returning from missing several games late last season, and this offense looks to be much better than a year ago.

These injury return situations have been a corner case blind spot in the Week 1 betting markets in recent years, and we think Arizona’s odds of pulling the upset in Week 1 are better than the market odds.

Carolina (+170) vs. New Orleans

This was another posted spread pick in our Early NFL Week 1 Picks to Consider, and you could alternatively consider the outright upset play, though getting a spread at +4 to catch the key number of 3 and get a push on a 4-point margin is still a good play.

Our models have this playable as both a moneyline and spread pick.

Carolina was awful on offense last year, and head coach Frank Reich got fired before even completing one season in Carolina. Enter Dave Canales, the Panthers’ new head coach, who could be a coaching star. We’ll lean into that unknown with this outright upset play. His recent history is impressive. He was previously the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay, where he played a crucial role in Baker Mayfield’s career resurgence. Before that, he was the offensive coordinator in Seattle, helping Geno Smith revitalize his career. Now, he will be working with Bryce Young, a talented young quarterback with a lot to prove in his second year in the league.

We are reminded that about seven years ago, another first-overall pick looked inept as a rookie, averaging 5.3 yards per pass and throwing more picks than touchdowns. That quarterback was Jared Goff, who got a young offensive mind in Sean McVay in year two, and things exploded for the Rams offense. While we would be surprised if the firepower improvements in Carolina were that dramatic, we do expect a turnaround with a coach who looks like an up-and-coming, smart offensive mind.

Do you know who we are 100% confident isn’t the next Sean McVay? Dennis Allen. The Saints coach is entering his third year in New Orleans, and many forget that he also once coached the Raiders. Most don’t remember that for good reason. Allen’s teams are 28-40-2 ATS for his career, including 7-15-1 ATS as the betting favorite.

Washington (+150) vs. Tampa Bay

Finally, we will close with another uncertain coach/QB situation as a higher variance upset play. Washington is a playable model spread and moneyline pick. Washington now has Dan Quinn as head coach and second-overall pick Jayden Daniels as quarterback. This team collapsed on defense last year, allowing a whopping 518 points a year ago. Quinn, most recently the defensive coordinator in Dallas, should at least get the defense above dumpster fire levels. Jayden Daniels also should be an upgrade over the Sam Howell experience and last year’s offense.

Tampa Bay was a good story last year, but closer to an average team than a really good one. Given that Washington is a bit of a black box regarding how improved they are, and the idea that Daniels could be the closest thing to Lamar Jackson since he entered the league, playing this one as a moneyline upset is not a bad idea, as the range of outcomes could vary.

Tue Sep 3

Teaser Tuesdays (Week 1)

Teasers are a popular NFL betting strategy that allows you to adjust the point spread or total in your favor by combining multiple teams and creating a type of parlay known as a teaser. One well-known approach is the Wong Teaser, introduced by Stanford Wong in Sharp Sports Betting. This strategy involves a two-team, six-point teaser, targeting favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 and underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5. (You can also see our research into teaser results for 2010-2019, the years after Wong’s book came out.)

The effectiveness of this approach led sportsbooks to change how they price and grade teasers. As teasers have become more popular, it is also becoming increasingly difficult to find value in betting them with sportsbooks pricing games with the teaser exposure factoring in. Although you can tease the total, we would not recommend making a habit of it due to the variance in totals, as it will not likely be profitable over time. However, as we consider which games to use as teaser legs, we will still need to pay attention to the total for each game. And as we analyze our weekly teaser bets, not all weeks will present an opportunity to follow the move through two key numbers, as discretion is the “bettor” part of valor.

NFL Week 1 Teaser Considerations

Underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 and Favorites of -7.5 to -8.5

Cincinnati Bengals -2.5: This option depends on the price. You should always shop around when considering which teaser legs you place bets on. The Bengals (-8.5 vs. New England) is a prime teaser target. If the spread were at -9, it would be a less appealing option. With the total at 40.5, it is a predicted lower-scoring game.
Dallas Cowboys +8.5: Adding Dallas (+2.5 at Cleveland) to a 6-point teaser leg would be a favorable play, considering the move up to 8.5 would cross two key numbers in 3 and 7. The total is currently at 42, and our model suggests the UNDER at that number. Our spread predictions also slightly lean towards Dallas, covering the +2.5.
Indianapolis Colts +8.5: The Colts (+2.5 vs. Houston) fit the teaser criteria. Moving them up to +8.5 would cross the 3 and 7. They are at home, and the game’s total currently sits at 49. However, our spread model slightly leans towards Houston covering the -2.5. Even with the extra 6 points, this one makes us nervous, considering the higher total and potential of the Houston Texans offense to pull away late in the game. Our model leans to the OVER 49 in this game, making it a dicey selection if the two offenses put on a show in Indy.
Green Bay Packers +8.5: The opening Friday night primetime special in Brazil will feature the Packers (+2.5 vs. Philadelphia), who show some value in a teaser leg. The game is at a neutral site, and the total currently sits at 48.5. However, once again, our predictive analysis leans to the over in this game, and it is more than a slight lean. That might be enough to move us off the Packers as a potential teaser option.
New York Giants +7.5: The Giants (+1.5) will host the Vikings in their season opener. The total currently sits at 41.5, and we lean to the OVER. There are more unknowns on both sides of the ball, with Daniel Jones returning from injury last season and Sam Darnold starting his first regular season game for the Vikings. Our model leans to the Vikings (-1.5) to cover, so we must consider the dangers of taking the Giants in this spot.

Others to consider:

Carolina Panthers +10: Teasing Carolina (+4 at New Orleans) this week means moving the 4 through a key number of 7, up to 10 in a 6-point teaser. You certainly could spend more and play a 6.5 or 7-point teaser, but Carolina is our top-rated team in our NFL Week 1 Betting Picks, so moving them through the 7 is a strong enough play in a standard 6-point teaser. The total in this game is currently 41.5, meaning the additional 6 points are valuable in a game that is predicted to be low-scoring.
Washington Commanders +9: The Commanders are on the road as +3 point underdogs playing on the road in Tampa Bay. Our model favors Washington at +3, so the additional 6 points move them off a key number of 3 and also through another key number of 7. The total is also a low total at 43.5, and our model suggests that the play would be on the UNDER at that number. The predicted low-scoring game and the chance to move the spread to +9 add to their value as a possible teaser leg.
Seattle Seahawks (PK): Teasing Seattle (-6 vs. Denver) is another option for a teaser leg this week, as they move off 6 and through 3 and would only need to win the game with the spread moving to zero or a PK. The total is also relatively low at 42. However, consider the original number you are teasing from when placing a teaser. You should never tease a game through zero. You will almost always lose a whole point when you tease through zero since the game is least likely to end in a tie. With the Seahawks at -6 currently, they would be considered for a play in a teaser. However, if they fall to -5.5, they should be removed from the list. You would be better off betting them at -5.5 rather than adding to a teaser leg.

NFL Week 1 Teaser Plays:

This week, we only have one team on the board as a -7.5 or -8.5 favorite, as the Bengals are the only favorite of more than 7 points, currently at -8.5. As mentioned above, multiple underdogs are in the +1.5 to +2.5 range. In making our decisions this week, we favored our spread model picks, considering that week 1 has a lot of uncertainty regarding game outcomes. We favored games with lower totals or where we leaned to the under if the total was more than 42. The four teams we are targeting in our teasers this week include:

Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5 to -2.5)
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5 to +8.5)
Carolina Panthers (+4 move to +10)
Washington Commanders (+3 to +9)

You can combine any of the above teams and get value from a two-team 6-point teaser based on our predictions for our NFL Week 1 Spread Picks.

Mon Sep 2

Early NFL Week 1 Picks to Consider

Arizona (+6) at Buffalo

Model spread pick
Our Week 1 research shows that underdogs with a starting QB who was on the roster last season but missed at least five games often perform well the following year. This usually applies to quarterbacks who missed time due to injury the previous season.
Kyler Murray missed the first nine games of 2023 due to a knee injury. After returning, Arizona’s offense averaged 22.4 points per game, nearly six more than without him. The team went 3-5 straight up (SU) and 5-3 against the spread (ATS) with Murray, compared to 1-8 SU and 4-5 ATS before his return.
Arizona’s offense looks promising, with Trey McBride’s late-season emergence, the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson’s potential, despite missing games last year due to a shoulder injury.
Buffalo’s wide receiver corps faces questions with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone. New addition Curtis Samuel has been sidelined with a turf toe injury, missing several weeks of practice late in the preseason.

Carolina (+4) at New Orleans

Top model spread pick for our NFL Week 1 Betting Picks
Since 2009, Week 1 underdogs with a new head coach are 31-23 ATS against favorites who have retained their head coach from the previous season.
Dave Canales, the Panthers’ new head coach, was previously the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay, where he played a crucial role in Baker Mayfield’s career resurgence. Before that, he was the offensive coordinator in Seattle, helping Geno Smith revitalize his career. Now, he will be working with Bryce Young, a talented young quarterback with a lot to prove in his second year in the league.
Some of Young’s struggles last season were due to the Panthers allowing the third-most sacks in the league. However, the team has significantly improved its offensive line this offseason by signing veteran guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. These two add to an offensive line that still includes Austin Corbett, a proven offensive lineman in the league, although he is shifting from guard to center for the first time in his accomplished NFL career.
On the other side, Dennis Allen is entering his third year with the Saints. In his two seasons as head coach in New Orleans, he’s 11-8 straight up (SU) but only 6-12-1 against the spread (ATS) when favored.

Green Bay vs. Philadelphia, OVER 49

Model Over/Under Pick
NOTE: This game is Friday night in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
As we break down our NFL Week 1 Betting Picks, the data reveals that when both starting QBs return as the starter, the OVER has been a strong trend, with a 39-29 record since 2009.
Green Bay ended last season on a high note, with their offense rolling in the second half of the season. The OVER hit in 7 of their final 9 games. With their wide receiver corps healthy to start the season, they should continue building on that late-season success.
On the Philadelphia side, Jalen Hurts enters the season fully healthy, and the addition of Saquon Barkley further enhances their offensive firepower. While you might find the Over at 48.5 if you shop around, we’re comfortable playing this Over at 49.

Highest Scoring Team on Sunday, Sep. 8 – Miami Dolphins +900 at DraftKings

The Dolphins are third on the board for this NFL Week 1 Sunday-only special, behind the Detroit Lions (+700) and Buffalo Bills (+700).
Miami was the third-highest-scoring team in Week 1 last season, making their current price understandable. The Dolphins will host the Jacksonville Jaguars in this Week 1 matchup, and our model leans towards the Over, with the total currently set at 49.5.
As we saw last season, the Dolphins can rack up points at home early in the year, evidenced by their 70-point explosion in their first home game.
Miami also ranked second in home scoring last year, trailing only the Dallas Cowboys.
The Jaguars’ defense was middle of the pack last year, and the OVER was 2-0 when they were an underdog on the road in 2023 (currently 3-point underdogs to the Dolphins). While Jacksonville’s pass rush can be disruptive, Tua Tagovailoa has one of the quickest releases in the NFL, leading the league in efficiency last year when getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds per pass attempt.
Considering the longer odds than a typical bet, we suggest playing a partial unit on this play, depending on your typical unit.

Don’t forget to check out our model betting picks and predictions for point spread, over/under, and moneyline value for Week 1.