BetIQ Daily: Two Sunday NFL Week 12 Picks plus 1 Passing Yards Prop

Picks for the NFL Week 12 Sunday games include the Patriots, the Browns-Ravens game, and a Baker Mayfield player prop and parlay.

Baker Mayfield and the Patriots are both in our Sunday picks (Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Sunday, November 28 (#7)

Welcome to BetIQ Daily, where we highlight a few sports betting picks from our premium data-driven models and analysis.

This is just a small sample of picks available over the next few days, which include college basketball, NBA, and the upcoming college football conference championship game picks.

See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.

3 Picks For NFL Week 12

1) New England -7 (vs. Tennessee)  NFL Spread Pick

  • Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET.
  • The Patriots are one of two playable spread picks on Sunday, according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Line has moved from opening at 6 points.
  • Patriots have covered five straight, with four of the five covering by 14 or more points.
  • Titans have struggled on offense in three games with RB Derrick Henry.
  • Tennessee star WR A.J. Brown has also been ruled out for Sunday’s game.

2) Cleveland-Baltimore Over 47.0 – NFL Over/Under Pick 

  • Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • This over is one of our highest-rated over/under plays on Sunday in the NFL.
  • Cleveland RB Kareem Hunt and OT Jack Conklin were removed from IR on Saturday and are expected to play.
  • Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson returns after missing last week’s game due to illness.
  • Last five Ravens-Browns games have averaged 58.8 points per game.

3) Baker Mayfield Over 213.5 Passing Yards — NFL Player Prop

  • Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • With return of Hunt and Conklin (see above on Cleveland-Baltimore total), Mayfield could see uptick in passing production.
  • Our model passing projection for Mayfield is 237.9, for a 24.4 difference, the biggest edge among passing-yard props on Sunday.
  • Line has already moved up four yards since Saturday morning, when it was 209.5.
  • That projection is based on the 47-point total, the spread, and does account for Cleveland being more run-heavy than the average team.

Correlated Same-Game Parlay:
BAL/CLE Over 47, Mayfield Over 213.5 Passing Yards, Lamar Jackson Over 237.5 Passing Yards

  • Our passing-yards model also sees value on Jackson over at the 47-point total (16 yards of value)
  • Our over/under betting models also have value on the over (and passing yards are correlated with expected points)

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

  • NFL point spread picks: 36-25-1 (59%, +7.8 units)
  • College football over/under picks: 168-141-3 (54%, +11.7 units)
  • College basketball over/under picks: 220-193-4 (53%, +7.0 units)
  • NBA spread picks: 13-6 (68%, +5.8 units)

To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.

We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.

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