BetIQ Daily: NFL Sunday Week 15 Picks and Player Props
Picks for Sunday in the NFL include the Detroit-Arizona and San Francisco-Atlanta games, plus a Joe Burrow prop bet.
December 19, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Can the Bengals avoid falling behind by two scores early this week? (Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)
Sunday, December 19 (#21)
The Sunday slate of Week 15 has arrived. Two games have been moved to Tuesday, but we still have 10 games on the schedule in the NFL.
This post highlights a sample of picks available to subscribers, which also include college basketball and NBA picks.
See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.
3 Saturday Picks
1) Detroit +13 (vs. Arizona) – NFL Spread Pick
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Our top playable NFL spread pick on Sunday.
- As an underdog of 6 points or more, Detroit is 7-2 ATS this season.
2) San Fran/Atlanta OVER 47.0 Points – NFL Over/Under Pick
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
- San Francisco is averaging 28.8 points in last five games, and key offensive players TE George Kittle, WR Deebo Samuel, and WR Brandon Aiyuk are all available.
- After a poor stretch partially due to injuries, Atlanta has averaged 22.3 over the last three games.
- Atlanta averages just over 25 points a game (six games) when RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson gets 15-plus touches a game, including the last three.
3) Joe Burrow UNDER 258.5 Passing Yards– NFL Player Prop Pick
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Our passing-yard model projects Burrow for 236.7 yards based on game spread and total.
- Our Over/Under Ensemble Forecast betting model also has an under lean on the 44.0 point total, and points are correlated with yards.
- Denver has held five of last seven opponents under 250 pass yards, allowing average of 225.9 yards over that span.
- Burrow has gone over this total each of the last two weeks, but both were extreme pass-heavy situations where Bengals trailed by double digits for most of game.
- The under provides some value in game scenarios where Bengals lead or competitive, close game throughout.
QB Passing Projections
Here are our full passing-yard projections for all remaining NFL games in Week 15. The passing-yard totals for the Monday and Tuesday games haven’t been updated.
| Quarterback | Opponent | BetIQ Projection | Prop O/U | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady | NO | 296.3 | 299.5 | -3.2 |
| Stafford | SEA | 273.1 | ||
| Allen | CAR | 268.5 | 258.5 | 10.0 |
| Murray | DET | 265.5 | 257.5 | 8.0 |
| Prescott | NYG | 265.4 | 273.5 | -8.1 |
| Rodgers | BAL | 258.6 | 265.5 | -6.9 |
| Cousins | CHI | 252.2 | ||
| Garoppolo | ATL | 252.2 | 246.5 | 5.7 |
| Tagovailoa | NYJ | 251.8 | 252.5 | -0.7 |
| Roethlisberger | TEN | 241.7 | 258.5 | -16.8 |
| Bridgewater | CIN | 238.9 | 231.5 | 7.4 |
| Burrow | DEN | 236.7 | 258.5 | -21.8 |
| Carr | CLE | 235.5 | ||
| Ryan | SF | 230.3 | 237.5 | -7.2 |
| Wilson, R | LAR | 225.8 | ||
| CLE QB | LV | 221.7 | ||
| Tannehill | PIT | 220.7 | 217.5 | 3.2 |
| Lawrence | HOU | 219.5 | 209.5 | 10.0 |
| Hurts | WAS | 215.7 | ||
| WAS QB | PHI | 213.6 | ||
| BAL QB | GB | 210.6 | ||
| Mills | JAC | 210.3 | 219.5 | -9.2 |
| Fields | MIN | 209.2 | ||
| Goff | ARI | 207.2 | 206.5 | 0.7 |
| Glennon | DAL | 204.2 | 196.5 | 7.7 |
| Wilson, Z | MIA | 200.9 | 207.5 | -6.6 |
| Hill | TB | 193.3 | 213.5 | -20.2 |
| CAR QB | BUF | 181.1 |
Bowl Betting Articles
We’ve also been churning out bowl betting articles this week. You can see the following:
And if you are in a bowl pool contest, check out our College Bowl Pool Picks.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 41-30-1 (58%, +7.3 units)
- College football over/under picks: 173-144-3 (55%, +13.3 units)
- NBA spread picks: 13-9 (59%, +2.8 units)
To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.
We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.
Got Feedback?
Thanks for reading this edition of BetIQ Daily!
We plan to try out some different things as we refine this column, and we’d love to hear your suggestions on what to include.
Send us your feedback or ideas at support@teamrankings.com.