BetIQ Daily: NFL Sunday Week 16 Picks

Picks for Sunday include the Chiefs-Steelers and Jaguars-Jets games, plus a player prop in Denver.

December 26, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Ben Roethlisberger is ready for a post-Christmas upset (Shelley Lipton/Icon Sportswire)

Sunday, December 26 (#25)

Almost all the presents have been unwrapped, but we still have a few more for your NFL Sunday with BetIQ Daily.

After an uneven week leading into the holidays, we posted a 5-0 mark for Christmas picks. We’ll try to continue the run with a vital day of NFL action in Week 16.

See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.

Picks for Sunday

1) Pittsburgh +10.5 (at Kansas City) – NFL Point Spread Pick

• Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
• Our top playable spread pick for Sunday in the NFL.
• Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS when an underdog of 4+ points or more this season (2-7 ATS otherwise).
• Pittsburgh’s defensive weakness has been stopping run against power run attacks, but Kansas City is one of least run-happy teams in NFL.
• Chiefs will be without both starting kicker and punter, among many other COVID-19 absences.

2) Jacksonville/NY Jets Under 41.0 Points – NFL Over/Under Pick

• Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
• Our top playable over/under pick for Sunday in the NFL.
• In game between top two picks from 2021 NFL draft, both teams struggling offensively.
• Jacksonville has averaged 10 points per game over last eight games.
• Jets average 15.2 points in Zach Wilson starts (24.5 in four games he did not start).

3) Drew Lock Over 203.5 Passing Yards  – NFL Player Prop Pick

• Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
• Based on spread and game total of 41.0 points, Lock projects for 222.1 yards in our models, nearly 19 yards of value.
• Lock would have gone over this passing-yard total in nine of 13 starts last season.
• Teddy Bridgewater, whom Lock is replacing due to injury, was over this low total in nine of 14 starts this season.
• Las Vegas has allowed starting quarterback more yards than this in nine of 14 games this season (but under in three of last five).

NFL Passing Projections for Week 16

We listed Drew Lock as a play for this week, but here are the rest of our projections, with lines on passing yards where available as of publication. There are lots of uncertain situations entering Sunday and many games without totals offered yet.

BetIQ Daily Plan for Holiday Weeks

Here’s our schedule plan for this week with the college football playoffs upcoming.

• Sunday, December 26: Week 16 Sunday NFL picks
• Monday, December 27: MNF picks for NO/MIA + Monday/Tuesday bowl games
• Wednesday, December 29: Week 17 NFL upset picks + four Wednesday bowl games
• Thursday, December 30: Picks for the nine bowl games on Thursday/Friday, including CFP games.
• Saturday, January 1: A picks article on the New Year’s Day bowl games.
• Sunday, January 2: Week 17 Sunday NFL picks

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

• NFL point spread picks: 42-30-1 (58%, +8.2 units)
• College football over/under picks: 175-144-3 (55%, +15.1 units)
• NBA spread picks: 13-9 (59%, +2.8 units)
• NBA moneyline picks: 70-55 (+13.4 units)

To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.

We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.

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