BetIQ Daily: NFL Week 16 Upset Picks to Consider
Picks for Wednesday feature our top NFL Week 16 upset plays, including staying on the Detroit Lions as they face Atlanta.
December 22, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
The Detroit Lions will look to continue their hot run as an underdog (Steven King/Icon Sportswire)
Wednesday, December 22 (#23)
BetIQ Daily is back for Wednesday with its normal weekly NFL upset picks segment, so let’s see who gets a lump of coal for the holidays.
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3 Week 16 NFL Upset Picks
We went 1-2 last week (Houston over Jacksonville) for -0.4 units. For the year, we are 17-21-1 for +11.6 units on NFL moneyline upset picks.
1) Detroit +200 (at Atlanta) – NFL Moneyline Pick
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Rated as playable ML pick by all models: Decision Tree, Similar Games, and Predictive Rating.
- Can Detroit be the gift that keeps giving? The Lions moved to 8-2 ATS when a dog of 6+ with outright win over Arizona.
- Detroit QB Jared Goff coming off best passing performance of year (8.3 yards per attempt) in last week’s win, but status this week is uncertain after he was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Monday.
- Atlanta is 0-5 ATS at home this year.
2) Baltimore +120 (at Cincinnati) – NFL Moneyline Pick
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Our Ensemble Forecast model has this one as just above the playable cutline
- Cincinnati won first matchup 41-17, in a game that was 13-10 at half but featured lots of big plays in second half, when Bengals (+6.5) were one of our featured upset picks.
- Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson questionable for this game after missing last one, but backup QB Tyler Huntley showed playmaking ability against Green Bay.
- Last year, we wrote about the performance of teams trying to complete sweep at home after winning on road, and they were 44.7% ATS from 2008-2020.
3) Buffalo +121 (at New England) – NFL Moneyline Pick
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Our Ensemble Forecast model has this right on the cutline as a playable moneyline pick.
- These teams met three weeks ago when New England won in terrible weather conditions while passing only three times.
- Just as with Baltimore, there is some value on the road team trying to prevent the division sweep since 2008.
- Buffalo has gone 0-5 in one-score games, including the first NE loss, but is now No. 1 in our predictive power ratings after last week’s results.
- Home team is 6-13-2 ATS in Buffal0/New England series since 2011.
On Missouri-Army
The Armed Forces Bowl between Missouri and Army is the only bowl game for today. Our models have Missouri as a 55 percent cover chance at +7 against Army, and our picks this year are 27-19 (59%) when rating a game at 55-plus percent cover odds.
As a jaded Missouri alum, I am laying off picking that one for a few reasons:
- Missouri’s best offensive weapon, RB Tyler Badie, has opted out and will not play in this game. Badie had over 1,600 rushing yards this year.
- Missouri is switching quarterbacks, benching underperforming QB Connor Bazelak and starting Brady Cook.
- As a result of those two pieces of news in the last two days, the line has moved against Missouri by three points, from +4 to +7.
- Missouri’s defense played better down the stretch, but it’s hard not to remember disasters against the run, particularly the Tennessee game where they allowed 458 rushing yards, and the opponent is triple-option Army.
Any outcome is possible here, from a surprise Missouri performance as a bigger dog to the team not being engaged and getting embarrassed against a unique offense.
BetIQ Daily Plan for Holiday Weeks
We have a full week of sports, and also family time, as we head toward Christmas Day on Saturday. That will be followed by the traditional bowl week between Christmas and New Year’s Day.
Here’s the schedule plan for the next two weeks.
- Thursday, December 23: Christmas picks, three NFL games on Thursday/Saturday, four bowl games over that span, plus NBA.
- Sunday, December 26: Week 16 Sunday NFL picks
- Monday, December 27: MNF picks for NO/MIA + Monday/Tuesday bowl games
- Wednesday, December 29: Week 17 NFL upset picks + four Wednesday bowl games
- Thursday, December 30: Picks for the nine bowl games on Friday/Saturday, including CFP games.
- Saturday, January 1: A picks article on the New Year’s Day bowl games.
- Sunday, January 2: Week 17 Sunday NFL picks
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 42-30-1 (58%, +8.2 units)
- College football over/under picks: 174-144-3 (55%, +14.2 units)
- NBA spread picks: 13-9 (59%, +2.8 units)
To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.
We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.
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