NFL Week 17 Betting Picks, Upset Picks & Analysis (2025)

We break down our top NFL picks for Week 17, including moneyline underdogs, spread picks, totals, and our favorite Christmas Day plays.

by Spencer Limbach - Dec 26, 2025

Welcome to our Week 17 NFL Picks Hub. This is where we’ll be posting our three favorite moneyline underdogs, along with our top spread and total plays for the Sunday slate.

On top of that, we’ll have a section with our favorite picks (Props & Sides) for the Christmas Day slate on Thursday.

We’ll publish Sunday player props in a separate post, with yardage and touchdown plays dropping on Saturday.

Note: The picks and analysis below are for premium members. If you’re not subscribed, you’ll see a banner with subscription options, including ways to unlock free access.

NFL Picks Week 17: Published Content

When we publish or update a section, we will list it below with the corresponding date it was posted.

Here’s our NFL Picks Week 16 content so far:

• 12/26: NFL Week 17 Upset Picks
• 12/26: NFL Week 17 Game Picks
• 12/23: NFL Christmas Day Picks

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Friday, Dec. 26

NFL Week 17 Upset Picks

Each week, we target three moneyline underdogs that we believe can win outright, where the price actually pays you for taking the shot. These are higher-variance bets than spreads, but that’s the point: when you’re routinely getting +200-ish (or better), you don’t need to win a ton to come out ahead.

Even going 1-for-3 at +200 still puts you in the green.

Just understand the tradeoff: underdogs are streaky. We’ve already seen the swing this season, including a five-game skid and later a 5-1 heater. That kind of variance is normal, which is why bankroll discipline matters more here than almost anywhere.

Three Upset NFL Picks for Week 17

We went 2-1 last week, bringing us to 7-2 over the past three weeks and +11.1 units over that span.

On the season, we’re 20-28 on moneyline underdogs for +6.89 units.

Now let’s keep it going with three more for Week 17.

The odds listed reflect the market consensus at the time of publishing. Always shop around for the best number before placing a bet.