BetIQ Daily: NFL Sunday Week 17 Picks
Picks for Sunday's NFL Week 17 include the Packers vs. Vikings, Bucs vs. Jets, and a Ryan Tannehill player prop.
January 2, 2022 - by Jason Lisk
The Packers get to go against a Vikings team without Kirk Cousins (Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)
Sunday, January 2 (#29)
Happy new year from the BetIQ Daily. Let’s roll right into the busiest Sunday schedule of the NFL season so far, with 15 games on tap.
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3 Picks for Sunday
We already published some Week 17 upset picks earlier this week. Here are some other picks for this week:
1) Green Bay -13 (vs. Minnesota) – NFL Spread Pick
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- The top playable spread pick after the big line move in favor of Green Bay, according to our Ensemble Forecast Model.
- Kirk Cousins was ruled out due to COVID-19, so 29-year-old Sean Mannion will make his third career start at quarterback for Minnesota.
- Mannion has averaged only 5.2 yards per attempt on 74 career passes, and has zero TD passes to three INTs in his career.
- Vikings rank 28th in rush yards per attempt allowed and 23rd in points allowed per game, typically relying on their offense to keep them close.
2) Tampa Bay/NY Jets Over 45.5 Points – NFL Over/Under Pick
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Our top playable over/under pick for Sunday.
- NY Jets are 30th in net yards per pass attempt allowed and are going against one of the most pass-heavy teams in Tampa Bay.
- Buccaneers have allowed the most passing attempts and fewest rushing attempts of any team leaguewide.
3) Ryan Tannehill Under 227.5 Passing Yards – NFL Player Prop Pick
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Our passing-yards model has Tannehill at 208.2 passing yards in this matchup based on spread, total, and Titans’ pass/run distribution.
- Miami has not allowed any of its last four opponents to reach 200 passing yards, all of which were wins.
- Dolphins were 24th in passing yards per attempt allowed after Week 8, but they’re now all the way up to seventh in that category after current seven-game win streak.
- Miami is also fifth in sack percentage on defense and is one of the NFL’s most blitz-heavy teams.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 43-33-1 (56%, +6.1 units)
- College football over/under picks: 178-146-3 (55%, +15.8 units)
- College basketball over/under picks: 442-390-8 (53%, +11.8 units)
- NBA spread picks: 13-9 (59%, +2.8 units)
- NBA moneyline picks: 71-61 (+8.9 units)
To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.
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