BetIQ Daily: NFL Week 17 Upset Picks to Consider
Picks for Wednesday include our weekly NFL upset picks for Week 17, where we jump on the Cardinals train as everyone else is getting off.
December 29, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Kyler Murray and Arizona will go for another upset (Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire)
Wednesday, December 29 (#27)
We are back again for upset pick Wednesday on BetIQ Daily, where we highlight three potential NFL upset picks to consider.
See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.
3 Week 17 NFL Upset Picks
We went 1-2 last week (Buffalo over New England) for -0.8 units. For the year, we are 18-23-1 for +10.8 units on NFL moneyline upset picks.
1) Arizona +197 (at Dallas) – NFL Moneyline Pick
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Playable moneyline pick for Week 17.
- Cardinals on three-game losing streak, but their net yard difference (+61 per game) is in line with full season (+50 per game).
- The difference has been turnovers, where Arizona has only one total opponent turnover in past three games after having 23 in first 12 games.
- Arizona ranks better than Dallas in both passing yards per attempt and yards per attempt allowed.
2) Las Vegas +210 (at Indianapolis) – NFL Moneyline Pick
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Playable moneyline pick for Week 17.
- Indianapolis QB Carson Wentz is likely out because of COVID-19, along with defensive leader LB Darius Leonard.
- Raiders are “optimistic” star TE Darren Waller will return to practice this week, and one of Colts’ weaknesses on defense is covering tight ends.
- Las Vegas playing to stay alive in playoff picture with a win, before facing Chargers in Week 18.
- RIP John Madden.
3) Cincinnati +185 (vs. Kansas City) – NFL Moneyline Pick
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Playable moneyline pick for Week 17.
- Both teams are peaking at end of season, with Cincinnati playing to win the AFC North with one more victory in last two games.
- After last week’s explosion against Baltimore, Cincinnati now ranks first leaguewide in yards per pass attempt (8.7) on offense.
The Wednesday Bowl Schedule
The Wednesday bowl schedule has three games that are still supposed to happen, though as we saw yesterday with the Holiday Bowl, that can change quickly. The games today are all between programs from major conferences, and they feature some notable names that have competed for titles recently:
- Pinstripe Bowl: Maryland (-3.5) vs. Virginia Tech
- Cheez-It Bowl: Clemson (-2.5) vs. Iowa State
- Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. Oregon
In a sign of the times, half of the teams in action today have an interim coach and plenty of question marks. If you are a subscriber, you can see our spread and over/under picks for all of today’s bowl games.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 43-33-1 (56%, +6.1 units)
- College football over/under picks: 177-144-3 (55%, +16.9 units)
- NBA spread picks: 13-9 (59%, +2.8 units)
- NBA moneyline picks: 70-59 (+9.4 units)
To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.
We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.
Got Feedback?
Thanks for reading this edition of BetIQ Daily!
We plan to try out some different things as we refine this column, and we’d love to hear your suggestions on what to include.
Send us your feedback or ideas at support@teamrankings.com.