NFL Week 18 Betting Picks, Upset Picks & Analysis (2025)

We break down our top NFL picks for Week 18, including moneyline underdogs, spread picks, and totals for the final week of the regular season.

by Jason Lisk - Jan 2, 2026

Welcome to our NFL Week 18 Betting Picks, where we’ll break down our three favorite moneyline underdogs, along with our top spread and total plays for the slate.

We found success last week, going 2-1 on moneyline underdogs and 3-1 on spreads/totals. Not a bad little run, so let’s try to carry that energy into the final week of the regular season.

And yeah, Week 18 is always a weird one. Some teams are playing like it’s win-or-go-home. Others are rotating guys like it’s August. It can feel messy, and the market doesn’t always catch up in real time. However, there’s an opportunity within that, which we’ll outline below.

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NFL Picks Week 18: Published Content

When we publish or update a section, we will list it below with the corresponding date it was posted.

Here’s our NFL Picks Week 18 content so far:

• 1/2: NFL Week 18 Upset Picks
• 1/1: NFL Week 18 Game Picks

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Friday, Jan. 2

NFL Week 18 Upset Picks

Each week, we target three moneyline underdogs that we believe can win outright, where the price actually pays you for taking the shot. These are higher-variance bets than spreads, but that’s the point: when you’re routinely getting +200-ish (or better), you don’t need to win a ton to come out ahead.

Even going 1-for-3 at +200 still puts you in the green.

Just understand the tradeoff: underdogs are streaky. We’ve already seen the swing this season, including a five-game skid and later a 5-1 heater. That kind of variance is normal, which is why bankroll discipline matters more here than almost anywhere.

Three Upset NFL Picks for Week 18

We went 2-1 last week, bringing us to 9-3 over the past month and +12.76 units over that span.

On the season, we’re 22-29 on moneyline underdogs for +8.55 units.

Now let’s keep it going with three more for Week 18.

The odds listed reflect the market consensus at the time of publishing. Always shop around for the best number before placing a bet.