BetIQ Daily: NFL Week 18 Upset Picks to Consider, Plus Memorable Final Week Upsets of Last 20 Years

Picks for Wednesday include our NFL Week 18 upsets, plus a trip down memory lane to other notable final-week upsets.

January 5, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Can the Dolphins knock off the Patriots again this year? (Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Wednesday, January 5 (#31)

BetIQ Daily is back with the usual Wednesday NFL upset picks to close out the regular season. But we also have a little something extra today.

We’re going down memory lane to highlight some of the most memorable final-week upsets of the last 20 years. (It will take us a few years to get used to a Week 18.)

3 NFL Week 18 Upset Picks

Our upset picks went 3-0 last week, correctly picking the only three underdogs to win outright in Week 17 (Bengals, Cardinals, Raiders). We now stand 21-23-1 SU and +16.7 units for the year.

1) Miami +232 (vs. New England)– NFL Moneyline Pick

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Our top playable moneyline pick so far for Week 18.
Since 2002, New England is 7-8 SU and 6-8-1 ATS playing in Miami.
New England needs a long-shot upset of Jets over Bills to have a chance to win AFC East, so it could alter its approach to resting key players in second half depending on how that game is going.
Miami’s blitz-heavy approach and strong pass defense will put pressure on New England rookie QB Mac Jones to make plays.

2) Chicago +125 (at Minnesota) – NFL Moneyline Pick

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Playable moneyline pick according to the Ensemble Forecast model.
Chicago has won its last two games, while Minnesota has been eliminated from playoffs after embarrassing performance against Packers with QB Kirk Cousins sidelined due to COVID-19.
Minnesota ranks 31st in total yards allowed, and there are motivational concerns with how the season has ended for Vikings.

3) Carolina +297 (at Tampa Bay) – NFL Moneyline Pick

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Playable moneyline pick according to the Ensemble Forecast model.
Tampa Bay has several key offensive injuries and absences, including both WR Chris Godwin and RB Leonard Fournette out and WR Antonio Brown kicked off team.
Bucs struggled and needed a comeback to beat the Jets last week.
Carolina’s offense has struggled greatly over second half of season, but defense capable of frustrating Brady with a limited offensive group around him.

Most Memorable Final Regular-Season Week Upsets of Last 20 Years

This is a non-exhaustive list of some memorable upset moments in the last week of the season. These include bad teams knocking off good ones, unexpected or notable performances, and some teams expected to have nothing to play for knocking off those that do. Let’s get to it.

10. Oakland (+10.5) Over Tampa Bay, 31-24, December 2008

Knocked the Bucs out of the playoffs, as Tampa Bay blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead. Jon Gruden’s last game in Tampa Bay.

9. Detroit (+14) Over Dallas, 39-31, December 2006

The second-largest final-week upset of the last 20 years by point spread. The 2-13 Lions scored twice in the final five minutes to beat the Cowboys.

8. Pittsburgh (+9.5) Over Buffalo, 29-24, January 2005

Pittsburgh had locked up the No. 1 seed and Ben Roethlisberger and Jerome Bettis were sitting. Buffalo needed to win to make the playoffs. A previously unknown young back named Willie Parker rushed for 102 yards as the Steelers knocked the Bills out of postseason contention.

7. Lots of Upsets Put KC in the Playoffs, December 2006

Kansas City entered the final week needing to win and for three other upsets to happen just to get into the playoffs. The Bengals, Titans, and Broncos all lost as favorites, with the Bengals and Broncos both losing in OT.

6. Miami (+9) vs. New England, 20-10, January 2016

The Patriots got shut down by Miami, when a win would have given them the No. 1 seed. Instead, they had to go to Denver for the AFC Championship Game, which they lost.

5. Green Bay (+6.5) vs. Detroit, 45-41, January 2012

The Matt Flynn game. Aaron Rodgers had clinched the MVP and the Packers clinched the No. 1 seed, while Detroit was playing for playoff positioning. Flynn threw for six touchdowns and made a lot of money that day.

4. Miami (+17.5) at New England, 27-24, December 2019

The largest upset in the final week, the Patriots needed to win to secure a first-round bye. Instead, it was Tom Brady’s final regular-season game in New England, and the Pats lost in the first round to Tennessee the next week to complete the late-season collapse.

3. Minnesota (+3) vs. Green Bay, 37-34, December 2012

Adrian Peterson rushes for 199 yards to go well over 2,000 for the year and win MVP, as the Vikings make the playoffs.

2. Cincinnati (+8) vs. Baltimore, 31-27, December 2017

Andy Dalton hit Tyler Boyd for a deep touchdown with just 44 seconds remaining, setting off celebrations in Buffalo. The Bills made the playoffs for the first time since 1999 as a result of the Ravens’ loss, and Bills fans flooded Andy Dalton’s charitable foundation with donations.

1. Arizona (+7.5) vs. Minnesota, 18-17, December 2003

The Vikings needed a victory against struggling Arizona to win the NFC North and knock Green Bay out of the playoffs. Minnesota held a 17-6 lead with just two minutes remaining, but Arizona scored, recovered an onside kick, and then Josh McCown hit Nate Poole for a 28-yard touchdown on the final play of the game. Minnesota was out.

Will we see anything that crazy this year?

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

NFL point spread picks: 47-33-2 (59%, +9.7 units)
College football over/under picks: 179-146-3 (55%, +16.7 units)
NBA spread picks: 13-9 (59%, +2.8 units)
NBA moneyline picks: 72-63 (+8.6 units)

To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.

We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.