NFL Week 2 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2021)
Week 2 saw two dogs benefit from key defensive injuries by their opponent, while the Tennessee Titans overcame errors to win at Seattle.
September 21, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Nick Chubb carried the Browns to a victory in the second half (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)
After a wild opening week that featured more underdogs winning, Week 2 rebounded with favorites generally prevailing. However, there were plenty of underdog covers depending on what line you got on some key games. Favorites went 11-5 SU but 7-9 ATS in Week 2.
Let’s dig into the numbers for the week that was.
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NFL Week 2 By the Betting Numbers
- Biggest upset: Tennessee over Seattle (+6.5, +240 money line)
- Biggest ATS cover margin: Buffalo over Miami (+31.5, won by 35 points as 3.5-point favorite)
- Most points above over/under line: Tampa Bay-Atlanta (+21, 73 total points vs. O/U line of 52)
- Most points below over/under line: San Francisco-Philadelphia (-21, 28 total points vs. O/U line of 49)
- Home Teams: 8-8 SU and 6-10 ATS in Week 2 (15-16 SU and 12-19 ATS so far in 2021)
- Favorites: 11-5 SU and 7-9 ATS in Week 2 (18-14 SU and 11-21 ATS so far in 2021)
(To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.)
Injuries And Absences Impacted Week 2 Results
Several games were impacted by notable absences and injuries. It’s important to recognize these when assessing teams going forward.
New Orleans-Carolina
The New Orleans Saints were without eight assistant coaches due to COVID-19 protocols, and they also had several prominent defensive absences Sunday. The Saints had shut down the Packers in Week 1, but those defensive changes allowed Panthers QB Sam Darnold to throw for over 300 yards on only 38 pass attempts. He did most of his damage in the first half as Carolina (+3) jumped to a 17-0 halftime lead en route to a 26-7 win.
Pittsburgh-Las Vegas
The Steelers had frustrated Josh Allen and Buffalo in Week 1, but they were without both CB Joe Haden and LB Devin Bush against Las Vegas. Star LB T.J. Watt had a sack and forced fumble early, but he suffered a groin injury in the first half and did not return. (He has “a chance” to play Sunday against Cincinnati, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.)
Against a Pittsburgh defense down multiple key starters, Raiders QB Derek Carr was able to thrive, particularly in the second half. He threw for 382 yards against Pittsburgh, 263 of which came after halftime, as the Raiders (+5.5) moved to 2-0 with their second straight victory as a betting underdog.
Houston-Cleveland
The Tyrod Taylor revival continued in the first half against Cleveland.
The veteran journeyman went 10-for-11 and threw for 125 yards as the Texans (+13.5) were tied 14-14 at the half. However, he did not return after halftime because of a hamstring injury.
Rookie QB Davis Mills replaced Taylor, but he finished 8-of-18 while averaging less than six yards per passing attempt. With Houston’s offense sputtering, the Browns pulled away in the third quarter.
Taylor is likely to miss “multiple weeks” because of his hamstring injury, according to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. However, don’t expect Deshaun Watson to start under center Thursday against the Panthers.
Deshaun Watson will not be active for the Texans' game against the Carolina Panthers on Thursday night despite starter Tyrod Taylor's uncertain status, HC David Culley said Monday. Taylor is getting an MRI on his left hamstring injury and is considered day-to-day, Culley said.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 20, 2021
Meanwhile, Browns WR Jarvis Landry is now week-to-week with a sprained MCL after he got hurt on the team’s opening drive. However, WR Odell Beckham Jr. has a “decent chance” to make his season debut Sunday against the Bears, according to Cleveland.com’s Mary Kay Cabot, which could ease the loss of Landry.
Miami-Buffalo
After serving the last game of his suspension in Week 1, WR Will Fuller V missed this week due to a personal issue. QB Tua Tagovailoa also left the game early with a rib injury.
Backup QB Jacoby Brissett managed only 169 passing yards on 40 pass attempts in relief, as Miami (+3.5) lost 35-0 and managed only 13 first downs against Buffalo.
David Culley Punt Strategery
If you are thinking about backing Houston as a big underdog money-line play in the future, let this decision linger in the back of your mind.
In a tie game in the first half against Cleveland, Texans head coach David Culley (a) declined an offsides by Cleveland on third down to then (b) punt on 4th-and-short at midfield for a touchback.
Here’s his explanation afterwards. I guess he is pot-committed and not willing to acknowledge how mind-numbingly awful that is.
— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) September 20, 2021
AFC South and NFC North Pass Defense Woes
Eight teams are allowing an opponent passer rating above 110.0 after two games. Three of them are in the AFC South, and three others are from the NFC North.
In the AFC South, Tennessee (vs. Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson) and Indianapolis (vs. Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford) have played passing offenses that were expected to be efficient. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are allowing 9.2 yards per attempt after their two games against Houston and Denver.
It’s surprising that the Houston Texans are the only team with above-average defensive numbers in the AFC South so far. They were 30th in total yards allowed last season, and they already have more interceptions in 2021 (four) than they had in all of 2020 (three).
Detroit has allowed the NFL’s highest passer rating through two games (147.8) and gave up a league-high 10.8 yards per attempt against San Francisco and Green Bay. Teams have thrown only 53 passes against the Lions because they were playing with second-half leads, but they’ve had success when they do. Detroit is also now potentially down its top two cornerbacks entering Week 3.
Green Bay and Minnesota also rank in the bottom eight in passer rating allowed. That leaves Chicago, which is tied for the ninth-worst passer rating allowed so far (106.8), as the highest-ranking team from the NFC North.
Turnovers, Miscues & Failures: Week 2 Edition
In this section each week, we will list a summary of drives that ended with turnovers, but not only official turnovers like interceptions and fumbles.
We also tally up other high-leverage events that likely led to either loss of points or great field position for an opponent. Safeties and blocked punts are included in turnovers, and blocked field goals are included in missed field-goal attempts.
Week 2 Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts
| Team | Turnovers | FG Misses | Downs | Total | Opp Total | Margin | ATS Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | -7 | L |
| ATL | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | -4 | L |
| MIA | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -3 | L |
| CIN | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -3 | L |
| DET | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -4 | L |
| JAC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -4 | L |
| NO | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | L |
| TEN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3 | W |
| BUF | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | W |
| IND | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | W |
| LAC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | L |
| CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| TB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| DAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| CLE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| BAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | L |
| ARI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | L |
| CAR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | L |
| HOU | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| KC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| LAR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| WAS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | L |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| GB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| NYG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| NE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| LV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | L |
| DEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | W |
The table is sorted by total drive-ending miscues. Turnovers and mistakes crushed the teams at the top of the list, as those with four or more drive-ending miscues went 0-7 ATS. Meanwhile, those who had none went 6-1 ATS.
Putting the Turnover Results in Context
The “Bill Belichick versus rookie quarterbacks” narrative got another major data point in Week 2. Zach Wilson’s first two passes were intercepted, and the Jets finished with four turnovers, a missed field goal, and two turnovers on downs.
One outcome stands out for going against the trend. The Tennessee Titans won a big game on the road at Seattle, but it wasn’t due to winning turnovers.
Tennessee hit the trifecta of a turnover, turnover on downs, and a missed field goal, while Seattle had zero. The Titans were able to overcome those errors and still make up a double-digit deficit to win in overtime.
Indianapolis lost to the Rams thanks to some high-leverage failures. The Colts failed to score on four attempts from the one-yard line in the first quarter, then Carson Wentz threw a shovel pass interception on the goal line later in the first half. Any points on either of those opportunities could have made a big difference in the outcome.
Minnesota only had one “miscue,” but it was a big one. Greg Joseph missed a 37-yard game-winning field-goal attempt for the Vikings, who at least covered the +4.5 line.
Overall Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts for 2021
Here is a summary so far in 2021, ordered from the teams with the best net differential between their own miscues and their opponents.
| Team | Turnovers | FG Misses | Downs | Total | Opp Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 |
| DEN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| LAR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 |
| SF | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| HOU | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| TB | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| ARI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| LV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| CAR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| KC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| DAL | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| NO | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| GB | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| BUF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -1 |
| NYG | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 |
| BAL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -1 |
| WAS | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 |
| LAC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -1 |
| CHI | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -2 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -2 |
| MIA | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -2 |
| IND | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -3 |
| CLE | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -3 |
| ATL | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 4 | -4 |
| CIN | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -4 |
| DET | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 3 | -6 |
| TEN | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 2 | -7 |
| JAC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0 | -8 |
| NYJ | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 | -8 |
The bottom of the chart is populated by mostly bad teams who have fallen behind and committed turnovers. But the Titans are also there. If they can turn it around on the turnover front, they could make a big leap in the standings.
2021 NFL ATS & Over/Under Performance Summary
Finally, here are links to the most up-to-date info for ATS and over/under records so far in 2021.
2021 Results by Closing Point Spread
2021 Results by Closing Over/Under Total
You can check out more trends on our BetIQ NFL betting trends page.
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