NFL Week 4 Betting Picks, Upset Picks & Analysis (2024)

From game picks to teasers, touchdown props, and moneyline underdogs, our NFL Week 3 betting and upset picks article has you covered.

September 30, 2024 - by Jason Lisk

Welcome to our NFL Week 4 betting and upset picks article.

This article is available to premium subscribers (or free trial subscribers). We will post a new article every week and add content segments throughout the week.

When a new segment is published or updated, we will add it to the link list below.

Week 4 Betting & Upset Picks: Published Content

Mon: MNF Doubleheader Analysis
Week 4 gives us two more matchups: Titans-Dolphins and Lions-Seahawks.

Sat: Chasing Touchdowns, Week 4
Our favorite TD props for Sunday’s games.

Fri: Added Picks for Sunday
Late-week adds to the picks as we look to Sunday.

Thu: Fading the Public
A cross-over looking into our public pool pick data.

Thu: College Football Picks
Some of our top CFB model picks for the week.

Thu: Giants vs. Cowboys Analysis
The 1-2 Giants and 1-2 Cowboys both need a win.

Wed: Week 4 Injury News
Key situations that could lead to line movement.

Wed: Week 4 Upset Picks
Our three favorite underdog moneyline picks.

Tue: Early Picks to Consider
Some early betting lines that caught our interest.

Tue: Teaser Tuesdays
Our favorite early teaser plays for NFL Week 4.

Tue: Week 3 Betting Recap
Notes and data from the previous week.

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Mon Sep 30

Monday Night Doubleheader Analysis

We get two games tonight, with Tennessee-Miami and Seattle-Detroit. One of them definitely has more appeal from a matchup perspective, as Seattle is undefeated, playing at 2-1 Detroit and their explosive offense. Meanwhile, you can also watch the 0-3 Titans and the 1-2 Dolphins, who are coming off a three-point effort without QB Tua Tagovailoa. (This of course, means that the Titans-Dolphins will probably turn into the wild, exciting game on Monday.)

Where Our Models Stand on the Key Lines

Spread: Miami (-2.5) vs. Tennessee; Detroit (-4) vs. Seattle. Our models do not have a playable pick on either game, though the Titans (52.0%) are the biggest lean.

Total: 37.0 for Miami/Tennessee; 47.0 for Detroit/Seattle. These are our two-highest rated Overs for the week from our models. We already listed Detroit/Seattle a week ago in our early pick release, when it was at 46.5.