NFL Week 4 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2021)
Week 4 gave us two road wins in NFC West games, two overtime wins for New York teams, and a beatdown in Buffalo.
October 5, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Don't sleep on the Arizona Cardinals (Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire)
Week 4 2021 Highlights
- Both New York teams got their first win of the season in overtime as underdogs of six or more points.
- After a rough Week 3, the rookie QBs bounced back. Their teams went 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS. The one non-cover was Houston losing by 40.
- San Francisco 49ers rookie QB Trey Lance played the entire second half after Jimmy Garoppolo left with a calf injury. The Niners lost to the Seattle Seahawks despite gaining 223 more yards.
- Road teams continued to have success, going 9-7 SU and ATS in Week 4.
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Week 4 Betting Results
- Biggest upset: New York Giants over New Orleans in OT (+7.5, +280 moneyline)
- Biggest ATS cover margin: Buffalo over Houston (+21.5, won by 40 points as 18.5-point favorite)
- Most points above over/under line: Kansas City-Philadelphia (+18, 72 total points vs. O/U line of 54)
- Most points below over/under line: Cleveland-Minnesota (-31, 21 total points vs. O/U line of 52)
- Over/Unders: Seven overs, nine unders
- Home Teams: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS
- Favorites: 9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS (Denver-Baltimore closed as a PK)
(To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.)
NFL Season Betting Numbers
Here are the against-the-spread numbers so far this year in some key categories.
2021 Home/Road and Favorite/Under ATS Results
| CATEGORY | W | L | T | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 27 | 36 | 0 | 42.9% |
| Away | 36 | 27 | 0 | 57.1% |
| Favorite | 25 | 38 | 0 | 39.7% |
| Underdog | 38 | 25 | 0 | 60.3% |
| Overs | 27 | 37 | 0 | 42.2% |
| Unders | 37 | 27 | 0 | 57.8% |
Notables
- Favorites of six points or fewer are only 19-23 SU and 14-28 ATS so far in 2021.
- After another winning week, road teams are 33-30 SU and 36-27 ATS through four weeks.
- Games between AFC and NFC teams have gone under 15 of 20 times.
Here are links to the most up-to-date info for ATS and over/under records so far in 2021:
2021 Results by Closing Point Spread
2021 Results by Closing Over/Under Total
Week 4 Miscues
Events like interceptions, lost fumbles, missed field goals and failed fourth-down conversions often lead to a loss of expected points and/or great field position for an opponent.
These “drive-ending miscues” often represent nothing more than bad luck. Adjusting for their effects can improve your NFL handicapping, since luck tends to even out over the long term.
Highlights
- Teams with four or more drive-ending miscues went 0-6 ATS.
- Teams with no drive-ending miscues went 4-1 ATS.
- The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams both lost key NFC West games at home because of a minus-4 differential in the miscue department.
- What happens when a bad team has a bunch of turnovers? 40-0 happens, as the Houston Texans messed around and found out.
- The New England Patriots‘ miss on a game-winning field-goal attempt prevented them from winning outright, although they got the cover.
The full data below is sorted by total drive-ending miscues. Safeties and blocked punts are included in turnovers, and blocked field goals are included in missed field-goal attempts.
Week 4 Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts
| Team | TOs | FG X | TOD | Total | Opp | Margin | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -4 | L |
| DET | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -3 | L |
| LAR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -4 | L |
| LV | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -3 | L |
| PIT | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | L |
| SF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -4 | L |
| CAR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -3 | L |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | L |
| NE | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | W |
| NO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | L |
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| GB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| MIA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | L |
| NYG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| TEN | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | L |
| CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| DEN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | L |
| IND | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| JAC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| KC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| LAC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| NYJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| TB | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | W |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | L |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | W |
2021 Season Total Miscues
Arizona is the only remaining undefeated team and now sits atop the list of teams with the best overall differential after the win over the Rams.
2021 Season Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts Summary
| Team | TOs | FG X | TOD | Total | Opp | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 9 |
| DEN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 8 |
| DAL | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 7 |
| BUF | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 6 |
| LAC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 6 |
| LAR | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| SEA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| GB | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| NO | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 3 |
| TB | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 3 |
| CHI | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 2 |
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| NE | 8 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 2 |
| LV | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| CAR | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| CIN | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| HOU | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| IND | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| NYG | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| KC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | -1 |
| SF | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| BAL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | -2 |
| CLE | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 6 | -2 |
| ATL | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 6 | -3 |
| MIA | 6 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 8 | -4 |
| PHI | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 5 | -4 |
| PIT | 5 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 7 | -4 |
| WAS | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | -5 |
| DET | 5 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 6 | -7 |
| JAC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 3 | -10 |
| NYJ | 8 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 4 | -10 |
| TEN | 7 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 4 | -10 |