NFL Week 5 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2021)
Week 5 featured lots of field-goal misses, some wild finishes, and the Cardinals staying undefeated as the 49ers went 1-of-5 on fourth down.
October 12, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
The Bills rolled to another big win in Week 5 (Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
Week 5 2021 Highlights
- The Giants lost their QB, RB, and multiple WRs, and Dallas pulled away to a big victory.
- The Browns and Chargers played the highest-scoring game of the year, a 47-42 win for the Chargers. It’s the highest-scoring game since the Browns lost to the Ravens last year … 47-42.
- Favorites had a good week overall after a rough first month, going 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS in Week 5.
- Home teams continue their struggles, having an overall losing week SU and ATS for the second week in a row.
Week 5 Betting Results
- Biggest upset: Chicago over Las Vegas (+5.5, +205 moneyline)
- Biggest ATS cover margin: Buffalo over Kansas City (+20.5, won by 18 points as 2.5-point underdog)
- Most points above over/under line: LA Chargers-Cleveland (+42, 89 total points vs. O/U line of 47)
- Most points below over/under line: San Francisco-Arizona (-21.5, 27 total points vs. O/U line of 48.5)
- Over/Unders: 10 overs, six unders
- Home Teams: 7-8 SU, 6-9 ATS (Atlanta-Jets neutral site)
- Favorites: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS
(To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.)
NFL Season Betting Numbers
Here are the against-the-spread numbers so far this year in some key categories.
2021 Home/Road and Favorite/Under ATS Results
CATEGORY | W | L | T | PCT |
---|---|---|---|---|
Home | 33 | 45 | 0 | 42.3% |
Away | 45 | 33 | 0 | 57.7% |
Favorite | 34 | 45 | 0 | 43.0% |
Underdog | 45 | 34 | 0 | 57.0% |
Overs | 37 | 43 | 0 | 46.3% |
Unders | 43 | 37 | 0 | 53.7% |
Notables
- Favorites of seven points or more are 20-2 SU and 12-10 ATS so far in 2021.
- Road teams are 41-37 SU and 45-33 ATS through five weeks.
- Games with an over/under of 50 or higher have gone over 15 of 26 times, while all other games have gone over only 22 of 54 times.
Here are links to the most up-to-date info for ATS and over/under records so far in 2021:
2021 Results by Closing Point Spread
2021 Results by Closing Over/Under Total
Week 5 Miscues
Events like interceptions, lost fumbles, missed field goals and failed fourth-down conversions often lead to a loss of expected points and/or great field position for an opponent.
These “drive-ending miscues” often represent nothing more than bad luck. Adjusting for their effects can improve your NFL handicapping, since luck tends to even out over the long term.
Highlights
- Teams with four or more drive-ending miscues went 1-7 ATS (Green Bay and Cincinnati played each other).
- Teams with no drive-ending miscues went 4-0 ATS.
- The San Francisco 49ers went only 1-for-5 on key fourth-down plays, failing on 4th-and-1 twice, 4th-and-2, and 4th-and-4 in a seven-point loss.
- The Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers combined to miss five field goals in a game that went under by three points.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars continued their turnover- and mistake-prone ways, with five drives ending in a miscue.
The full data below is sorted by total drive-ending miscues. Safeties and blocked punts are included in turnovers, and blocked field goals are included in missed field-goal attempts.
Week 5 Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts
Team | TOs | FG X | TOD | Total | Opp | Margin | ATS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JAC | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -5 | L |
KC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -5 | L |
SF | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | -3 | L |
CIN | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | L |
GB | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | W |
NYG | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | L |
SEA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -3 | L |
WAS | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | L |
CAR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | L |
DAL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | W |
DET | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | W |
IND | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | W |
LV | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -3 | L |
MIN | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | L |
PHI | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | W |
ARI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | W |
ATL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | W |
CLE | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | L |
DEN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | L |
HOU | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | W |
MIA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | L |
NE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | L |
NO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | W |
BAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | L |
LAC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | W |
LAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | W |
NYJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | L |
PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | W |
BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | W |
CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | W |
TEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | W |
2021 Season Total Miscues
Jacksonville is tied for the NFL lead in turnovers, has the most missed field goals, and the most total drive-ending miscues. The Jaguars also have the fewest opponent drives ending in either a turnover, missed field goal, or turnover on downs (three). That’s actually impressive.
Kansas City is tied with the Jaguars with the most turnovers with 11. The Chiefs had only 16 turnovers all of last season.
2021 Season Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts Summary
TEAM | TOS | FG X | TOD | TOTAL | OPP | MARGIN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARI | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 12 |
BUF | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 11 |
DAL | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 8 |
DEN | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 7 |
LAC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 7 |
LAR | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 7 |
CHI | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 5 |
NO | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 5 |
TB | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 5 |
GB | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 3 |
MIN | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 2 |
NE | 10 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 2 |
SEA | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 1 |
BAL | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
CAR | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
CIN | 7 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 |
HOU | 7 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 |
NYG | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | -1 |
IND | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 9 | -2 |
LV | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | -2 |
CLE | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 7 | -3 |
PIT | 6 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 9 | -3 |
ATL | 6 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 7 | -4 |
PHI | 4 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | -4 |
SF | 7 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 10 | -4 |
TEN | 7 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 9 | -5 |
KC | 11 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | -6 |
MIA | 8 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 8 | -6 |
DET | 7 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 9 | -7 |
WAS | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 5 | -7 |
NYJ | 9 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 6 | -9 |
JAC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 3 | -15 |