Three NFL Week 5 Upset Picks To Consider (2022)

These NFL Week 5 upset picks stand out as moneyline value plays based on our algorithmic prediction models, data angles, and/or recent news.

Micah Parsons and the Cowboys get the Rams struggling offensive line in Week 5 (Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire)

Everybody loves an NFL upset pick, especially when you bet on them and they win.

In this article, we pick three NFL Week 5 underdogs to win outright, and we track our overall season performance based on the moneyline odds for each pick.

Last season, upset picks we highlighted went 22-25-1 straight up, good for +17.0 units of profit if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(To see our favorite NFL betting picks each week, including point spread, over/under, props, and other picks, check out our Staff Betting Picks.)

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Upset Picks Results to Date

Last Week: 2-1 for +2.3 units
2022 Season: 8-4 for +10.6 units

We hit two of three upset picks again last week:

  • Seattle won in a shootout over Detroit on the road, 48-45.
  • The New York Jets won at Pittsburgh in a game where they scored the go-ahead touchdown in the closing seconds.
  • Washington scored only 10 points at Dallas, losing 25-10.

A full history of upset picks we’ve made so far in 2022 appears at the end of this article.

Week 4 NFL Upset Picks

Houston Texans (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Moneyline: +270
Point Spread: +7.0

This is the top playable moneyline pick according to our models for Week 5.

Houston is an intriguing upset play for multiple reasons here. The first is based on Jacksonville’s statistical performance in points versus yards.

The Jaguars are nearly even in yards gained and allowed this year, but they’re plus-38 in point differential. That ranks third in the entire NFL, behind only Buffalo and Philadelphia. The Jaguars are first in our yards per point margin stat by a fairly sizable gap, which suggests they are a strong negative regression candidate and potentially overvalued by just looking at the game scores.

Houston has also played well against Jacksonville in this series, winning eight straight. That includes four outright wins as an underdog, including both games last year, in the only two games Jacksonville was favored in all season.

The Jaguars are facing a pretty stark role switch to the favorite here, being favored by a touchdown. They’ve lost four straight games outright as a betting favorite, all by at least two touchdowns. You have to go back to October 2019 (against the Jets) for the last time the Jaguars covered as a favorite.

Jacksonville is a young, emerging team that has shown signs of life under new head coach Doug Pederson. However, the Jags are catching the only remaining team without a win this season in a dangerous spot.

Dallas Cowboys (at Los Angeles Rams)

Moneyline: +180
Point Spread: +4.5

This is another playable moneyline pick, according to our models.

There’s something wrong with L.A.’s offense, and it’s certainly not clicking like last year’s version yet. Here are some of the Rams’ ranks in notable categories:

  • Points scored: 29th
  • Total yards: 28th
  • Rushing yards: 30th
  • Sack rate: 30th
  • Interceptions: 32nd

The offensive line has really struggled. The Rams added veteran WR Allen Robinson II to be the complementary option to Cooper Kupp, but he has a measly 95 yards through four games. It’s basically Kupp or nothing right now for the Rams.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys have overcome the loss of QB Dak Prescott to a thumb injury and have won three straight. It’s largely been on the strength of the defense, especially early Defensive Player of the Year candidate Micah Parsons. Dallas ranks third in total points allowed, second in net yards per pass attempt allowed and is tied for the second-most sacks in the NFL (15).

Given the Rams’ inability to run the ball and Dallas’ decided advantage in the defensive line vs. offensive line matchup, this one has the makings of a defensive struggle where the Cowboys have a chance to get the road win.

Washington Commanders (vs. Tennessee)

Moneyline: +115
Point Spread: +2.5

According to our pool picks data, the public is heavily on Tennessee this week, with only 14% of the public in a typical pool contest picking Washington to win outright. (So far this year, when the public is heavily skewed on a favorite and the pick rate is at least 25% higher than the market win odds, the underdog has gone 8-3 SU.)

Washington has lost three in a row, while Tennessee has appeared to right the ship after its opening loss to the Giants followed by the blowout loss to Buffalo. But certain indicators suggest that you should not buy into this Tennessee resurgence.

The Commanders’ passing attack has been pretty bad recently with QB Carson Wentz, who has thrown a high volume of passes. But there is some silver lining. Washington’s last two games have come against the two teams that rank No. 1 (Philadelphia) and No. 2 (Dallas) in net passing yards per attempt allowed. Wentz isn’t the only one that has struggled against them.

Tennessee, meanwhile, is 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed so far (7.7), better than only Miami (7.8) and Seattle (8.2). That’s even more worrisome considering that the Titans have played only one team (Buffalo) in the upper third of the league in passing.

Tennessee lacks playmakers in the passing game, and rookie WR Treylon Burks just suffered a turf toe injury that will likely sideline him this week. This Titans offense could struggle as the game goes on. Add in Tennessee’s poor pass defense giving Wentz a reprieve from what he has seen recently, and there’s value on a Washington (slight) upset.

2022 Upset Pick History

Below is a full list of the picks we’ve made in this column so far in 2022. We list the moneyline odds at the time we made the pick (“WED ML”), the closing line (“CLOSING ML”), and result.

WeekPickOpponentWed MLClosing MLResult
1MinnesotaGreen Bay+105-130W, 23-7
1NY GiantsTennessee+210+200W, 21-20
1PittsburghCincinnati+232+266W, 23-20
2New OrleansTampa Bay+125+124L, 20-10
2NY JetsCleveland+215+220W, 31-30
2AtlantaLA Rams+400+372L, 31-27
3HoustonChicago+125+145L, 23-20
3CarolinaNew Orleans+135+115W, 22-14
3IndianapolisKansas City+228+190W, 20-17
4New York JetsPittsburgh+150+140W, 24-20
4WashingtonDallas+155+135L, 25-10
4SeattleDetroit+180+151W, 48-45

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Individually, neither the betting markets nor our models give any of these three teams better than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. Given that context, we expect to get most of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week—including losing all three picks in some weeks.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Week 5 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our custom NFL betting trends tool.

If you’d like to see all of our model-based picks for NFL Week 5 (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

And if you’d like to see a more curated list of betting picks that caught our attention, with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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