NFL Week 8 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2021)

Week 8 featured backup quarterbacks putting up big performances, including Mike White of the Jets, who led the biggest upset.

November 2, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Week 8 2021 Highlights

• Backup quarterbacks were the story of the week, as several made important contributions.
• Mike White made his first career start and threw for over 400 yards in the Jets’ win over the Bengals, the biggest upset of the season so far.
• Cooper Rush filled in for Dak Prescott on Sunday Night Football and led the Cowboys on a late touchdown drive to beat the Vikings.
• Trevor Siemian had to come in for New Orleans in the second half, as Jameis Winston suffered a season-ending knee injury, and the Saints held on to beat Tampa Bay.
• Houston (+16.5 closing line) pulled off the backdoor cover of the year. After trailing the Rams 38-0 with less than 10 minutes remaining, the Texans scored 22 points, including a successful two-point attempt, in the fourth quarter.
• Teams favored by a touchdown or less went 4-7 SU and 4-7 ATS in Week 8.

Week 8 Betting Results

• Biggest upset: New York Jets over Cincinnati (+11.5, +420 moneyline)
• Biggest ATS cover margin: Philadelphia over Detroit (+35, won by 38 points as 3-point favorite)
• Most points above over/under line: Cincinnati-New York Jets (+22, 65 total points vs. O/U line of 43)
• Most points below over/under line: Cleveland-Pittsburgh  (-18, 25 total points vs. O/U line of 43)
• Over/Unders: 7-8 Overs
• Home Teams: 6-9 SU, 5-9-1 ATS
• Favorites: 7-8 SU, 4-10-1 ATS

(To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.)

NFL Season Betting Numbers

Here are the against-the-spread numbers so far this year in some key categories.

2021 Home/Road and Favorite/Under ATS Results 

CATEGORY	W	L	T	PCT
Home	51	67	1	43.3%
Away	67	51	1	56.7%
Favorite	53	67	1	44.2%
Underdog	67	53	1	55.8%
Overs	54	66	2	45.1%
Unders	66	54	2	54.9%

Notables

• After posting their first winning week of the season in Week 7, home teams again struggled in Week 8. They’ve won only 46.6 percent of games in 2021.
• Favorites of 6.5 points or less are 43-44 SU and 35-52 ATS this season.
• When the over/under is 45 points or less, the over is only 13-23-1.
• Favorites playing outside the division but in the same conference are 29-25 SU and 17-37 ATS.

Here are links to the most up-to-date info for ATS and over/under records so far in 2021:

NFL ATS Records and Trends

Over/Under Records and Trends

2021 Results by Closing Point Spread

2021 Results by Closing Over/Under Total

Week 8 Miscues

Events like interceptions, lost fumbles, missed field goals and failed fourth-down conversions often lead to a loss of expected points and/or great field position for an opponent.

These drive-ending miscues often represent nothing more than bad luck. Adjusting for their effects can improve your NFL handicapping, since luck tends to even out over the long term.

Highlights

• Teams with four or more drive-ending miscues went 1-5 ATS.
• Teams with no drive-ending miscues went 2-0 ATS.
• The team with fewer miscues in the Week 8 matchups went 8-3-1 ATS.
• The two teams that won outright despite losing the turnover/miscue battle started backup quarterbacks, which makes those outcomes even more impressive.
• Washington scored 10 total points despite punting the ball only once, thanks to an incredible two turnovers, two missed field goals, and two drives ending on fourth downs (in addition to the two interceptions on fourth down). They are the first team to score 10 or fewer while punting only once that since … they did it a week ago.
• Washington is now the first team dating back to 1950 to lose two different games where it only punted once but scored 10 or fewer points in the same season, according to Pro Football Reference.

The full data below is sorted by total drive-ending miscues. Safeties and blocked punts are included in turnovers, and blocked field goals are included in missed field-goal attempts.

Week 8 Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts

Team	TOs	FG X	TOD	Total	Opp	Margin	ATS
WAS	2	2	2	6	2	-4	L
DET	1	1	3	5	0	-5	L
JAC	1	0	3	4	0	-4	L
TB	3	0	1	4	1	-3	L
IND	3	0	1	4	2	-2	L
NYJ	3	1	0	4	2	-2	W
ATL	2	1	0	3	1	-2	L
MIA	2	1	0	3	1	-2	T
DAL	2	1	0	3	1	-2	W
ARI	3	0	0	3	2	-1	L
CLE	1	0	2	3	2	-1	L
HOU	1	1	0	2	1	-1	W
KC	2	0	0	2	2	0	L
LAC	2	0	0	2	2	0	L
NE	1	0	1	2	2	0	W
NYG	1	0	1	2	2	0	W
GB	0	0	2	2	3	1	W
PIT	0	0	2	2	3	1	W
CIN	1	0	1	2	4	2	L
TEN	2	0	0	2	4	2	W
DEN	1	1	0	2	6	4	W
LAR	0	0	1	1	0	-1	L
CHI	1	0	0	1	1	0	L
SF	0	1	0	1	1	0	W
MIN	0	0	1	1	3	2	L
BUF	0	0	1	1	3	2	T
CAR	1	0	0	1	3	2	W
NO	0	0	1	1	4	3	W
SEA	0	0	0	0	4	4	W
PHI	0	0	0	0	5	5	W

2021 Season Total Miscues

Once again, the Chiefs had multiple turnovers. However, they are not last in the net miscue department.

The Jets moved into a tie with the Jaguars for the worst miscue differential, while Washington and Detroit closed the gap for last.

Meanwhile, Arizona finally got some regression the other way, losing its first game on a costly and bizarre interception with only 15 seconds left.

2021 Season Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts Summary

TEAM	TOS	FG X	TOD	TOTAL	OPP	MARGIN
ARI	10	3	0	13	31	18
BUF	6	1	6	13	25	12
LAR	7	1	3	11	23	12
DEN	10	1	1	12	20	8
NO	6	3	4	13	23	10
GB	6	4	5	15	24	9
NE	14	1	1	16	25	9
TB	10	3	4	17	23	6
DAL	9	5	3	17	22	5
LAC	8	1	4	13	18	5
CIN	10	3	4	17	21	4
LV	5	2	6	13	16	3
MIN	5	4	3	12	15	3
SEA	4	4	3	11	14	3
IND	10	3	4	17	19	2
TEN	11	3	4	18	20	2
BAL	8	1	4	13	14	1
CAR	13	2	3	18	18	0
CHI	11	0	7	18	17	-1
PHI	7	2	8	17	16	-1
NYG	11	2	6	19	17	-2
PIT	7	1	7	15	13	-2
ATL	10	1	5	16	11	-5
HOU	12	3	5	20	14	-6
SF	11	3	5	19	13	-6
CLE	8	1	11	20	10	-10
KC	19	1	3	23	12	-11
MIA	13	4	6	23	12	-11
WAS	13	5	8	26	11	-13
DET	11	2	13	26	11	-15
JAC	12	4	7	23	6	-17
NYJ	15	3	7	25	8	-17