NFL Week 9 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2021)

Week 9 featured some of the biggest upsets of the 2021 NFL season, and the underdogs had a winning week overall.

Jacksonville knocked off Buffalo in the biggest upset of Week 9 (David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire)

Week 9 2021 Highlights

  • Upsets were the story of the week, as we had three of the biggest upsets of the year so far. Underdogs went 7-6 SU overall.
  • Jacksonville’s win over Buffalo was the largest upset of 2021 by moneyline odds (+755), while Denver over Dallas (+365) and Tennessee over the LA Rams (+290) were the third- and fourth-largest, respectively.
  • Five teams had fewer than 250 total yards in Week 9. Four of them won their game (Jacksonville, Kansas City, New York Giants, and Tennessee).
  • Seven different games featured at least 1.5 points of line movement from the opening to closing spread. Teams with line movement in their favor went 1-6 ATS against the opening lines and 0-7 against the closing lines.

Week 9 Betting Results

  • Biggest upset: Jacksonville over Buffalo (+14.5, +755 moneyline)
  • Biggest ATS cover margin: Cleveland over Cincinnati (+27, won by 25 points as 2-point underdog)
  • Most points above over/under line: Indianapolis-New York Jets (+29.5, 75 total points vs. O/U line of 45.5)
  • Most points below over/under line: Buffalo-Jacksonville (-33, 15 total points vs. O/U line of 48)
  • Over/Unders: 7-7 Overs
  • Home Teams: 7-7 SU, 4-10 ATS
  • Favorites: 6-7 SU, 3-10 ATS (LA Chargers-PHI closed as a pick’em)

(To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.)

NFL Season Betting Numbers

Here are the against-the-spread numbers so far this year in some key categories.

2021 Home/Road and Favorite/Under ATS Results 

CATEGORYWLTPCT
Home5577141.7%
Away7755158.3%
Favorite5677142.2%
Underdog7756157.8%
Overs6173245.6%
Unders7361254.4%

Notables

  • After yet another week where road teams won more than half of the games, we’ve had only one week so far where home teams won the majority of games.
  • Favorites of 6.5 points or less are 45-48 SU and 37-56 ATS this season.
  • Favorites playing outside the division but in the same conference are 31-26 SU and 19-38 ATS.

Here are links to the most up-to-date info for ATS and over/under records so far in 2021:

NFL ATS Records and Trends

Over/Under Records and Trends

2021 Results by Closing Point Spread

2021 Results by Closing Over/Under Total

Week 9 Miscues

Events like interceptions, lost fumbles, missed field goals and failed fourth-down conversions often lead to a loss of expected points and/or great field position for an opponent.

These drive-ending miscues often represent nothing more than bad luck. Adjusting for their effects can improve your NFL handicapping, since luck tends to even out over the long term.

Highlights

  • Teams with four or more drive-ending miscues went 2-6 ATS.
  • Teams with no drive-ending miscues went 1-1 ATS.
  • The team with fewer miscues in the Week 9 matchups went 10-4 ATS.
  • Green Bay covered against Kansas City despite a minus-3 margin in the miscue department, but the two missed field goals represented the margin of defeat.
  • Houston and Miami combined for nine turnovers, the most in any game this season.

The full data below is sorted by total drive-ending miscues. Safeties and blocked punts are included in turnovers, and blocked field goals are included in missed field-goal attempts.

Week 9 Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts

TeamTOsFG XTODTotalOppMarginATS
DAL20461-5L
CIN30251-4L
GB22151-4W
MIA50054-1W
LV31041-3L
BUF30142-2L
CAR30143-1L
HOU400451L
CHI21031-2W
LAR20131-2L
SF30031-2L
NE210341W
BAL20020-2L
LAC00220-2W
NO10121-1L
NYJ20021-1L
JAC110242W
ATL001121W
IND001121W
ARI001132W
PIT100132L
TEN100132W
NYG100143W
CLE010154W
KC001154L
DEN010165W
MIN000022W
PHI000022L

2021 Season Total Miscues

Denver moved into second in the net miscues rankings after getting several turnovers and turnovers on downs against Dallas. The Broncos still trail Arizona.

The Cardinals recovered all three fumbles that occurred in this week’s win over San Francisco.

2021 Season Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts Summary

TEAMTOSFG XTODTOTALOPPMARGIN
ARI1031143420
DEN1021132815
LAR914142410
BUF917172710
NE1621192910
NO73515249
TB103417236
MIN54312175
GB86620255
TEN123419234
SEA44311143
LAC81615183
IND103518213
PHI72817181
NYG122620211
PIT81716160
LV83617170
CIN133622220
DAL115723230
BAL10141514-1
CAR16242221-1
CHI13172118-3
ATL10161713-4
HOU16352419-5
CLE82112115-6
KC19142417-7
SF14352214-8
MIA18462816-12
JAC13572510-15
DET112132611-15
WAS135102813-15
NYJ1737279-18