BetIQ Daily: Sunday NFL Wild Card Picks
Sunday picks for BetIQ include over/under plays on the Bucs-Eagles, Chiefs-Steelers, and Cowboys-49ers games.
January 16, 2022 - by Jason Lisk
The Eagles will face the Bucs in potentially windy conditions today (Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)
BetIQ Daily is looking to rebound after yesterday’s action, where we did not see “Patriots will have the worst defensive performance ever in the playoffs” coming.
We’ve got three games today, so let’s get to it.
1) Tampa Bay/Philadelphia Under 46.0 Points
- NFL Over/Under Pick
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX
- This one is not a playable over/under from our models, but it is a play based on weather and line movement.
- This total has dropped from opening of 49 to 46, presumably based on weather forecasts in Tampa today.
- Rain should be finished by game time, but winds are forecast for 18 mph or higher during the game, and there is a gale warning, so higher gusts are possible during game.
- High winds tend to have a negative impact on passing and scoring, as well as the kicking games.
2) Kansas City/Pittsburgh Under 46.0 Points
- NFL Over/Under Pick
- Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC
- This under is a playable pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, with 54 percent cover odds.
- The last four Pittsburgh games have featured 46 or fewer points (the 36-10 loss to KC being the highest-scoring recently).
- Pittsburgh is in the top 10 in net yards per pass attempt allowed but is last in yards per carry and rushing yards allowed.
- Kansas City is 31st in yards per carry allowed.
3) Dallas/San Francisco Over 50.5 Points
- NFL Over/Under Pick
- Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS
- The over is right on the cutline of playable, according to our Ensemble Forecast model, with 52.3 percent cover odds.
- Line has moved up since opening at 49.5 points.
- Dallas defense has been one of best at creating turnovers but rates lower in per-play efficiency.
- San Francisco offense is first in net yards per pass attempt, while Dallas is fourth in that category.
- Dallas led NFL in total points scored and yards, while San Francisco outgained opponents by over 1,100 yards in regular season.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 48-36-2 (57%, +7.6 units)
- College football over/under picks: 180-146-3 (55%, +17.7 units)
- NBA spread picks: 14-10 (58%, +2.7 units)
- NBA moneyline picks: 80-69 (+9.7 units)